{"id":28483,"date":"2022-04-02T19:14:45","date_gmt":"2022-04-02T19:14:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/moodys-upgrades-south-africas-outlook-from-negative-to-stable"},"modified":"2022-04-02T19:29:45","modified_gmt":"2022-04-02T19:29:45","slug":"moodys-upgrades-south-africas-outlook-from-negative-to-stable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/moodys-upgrades-south-africas-outlook-from-negative-to-stable","title":{"rendered":"Moody’s upgrades South Africa’s outlook from \u2018negative\u2019 to \u2018stable\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>The<\/p>\n

credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded its outlook on South Africa from \u201cnegative\u201d<\/p>\n

to \u201cstable\u201d.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s previously rated South Africa at Ba2 (two rungs below<\/p>\n

investment grade), with a negative outlook \u2013 which means the next step could<\/p>\n

potentially be another downgrade.<\/p>\n

It is keeping South Africa at Ba2, but<\/p>\n

changed its outlook to \u201cstable\u201d, saying that South Africa’s fiscal<\/p>\n

position has \u201cmarkedly recovered\u201d from the pandemic thanks to high commodity<\/p>\n

prices, which boosted tax revenue, and government’s fiscal consolidation<\/p>\n

measures, including that it was able to keep growth in the public sector wage<\/p>\n

bill to 1.6%, well below inflation.<\/p>\n

\u201cIndeed,<\/p>\n

over the last two fiscal years, the government has shown it was able to<\/p>\n

re-prioritise its spending while staying committed to fiscal consolidation,<\/p>\n

which Moody’s expects will remain the case going forwards.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2020, Moody\u2019s stripped<\/p>\n

South Africa of its investment grade rating, downgrading government<\/p>\n

bonds to “junk”. A “junk” rating means there’s a bigger<\/p>\n

chance that the government won\u2019t be able to pay back its debts.<\/p>\n

“This<\/p>\n

marks an improvement compared to Moody’s previous projections of a long period<\/p>\n

of ever-rising debt-to-GDP.”<\/p>\n

Government<\/p>\n

has managed to cut its primary deficit (the difference<\/p>\n

between its income and spending, excluding interest payments) to<\/p>\n

1.3% of GDP over the past year, compared to Moody\u2019s forecast of 3.4%.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s<\/p>\n

also expects that tax compliance is likely to improve gradually as the South<\/p>\n

African Revenue Agency (SARS) rebuilds some of its institutional capacity, and<\/p>\n

highlighted South Africa’s \u201csound\u201d financial sector, as well as strong exports<\/p>\n

thanks to commodity prices.<\/p>\n

In addition,<\/p>\n

it noted that the Reserve Bank’s foreign-exchange reserves fully covered annual<\/p>\n

external debt payments. \u201cThe central bank has a long-standing policy of<\/p>\n

refraining from intervening to prevent depreciation, thereby preserving<\/p>\n

buffers.\u201d<\/p>\n

But it<\/p>\n

warned that the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) remain weak and poses risks to government\u2019s<\/p>\n

debt burden. In addition, a \u201cmalfunctioning\u201d labour market could fuel \u201csocial<\/p>\n

risk\u201d and Moody\u2019s is also concerned about the impact of load shedding on the<\/p>\n

economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cMoody’s<\/p>\n

expects these constraints to remain and forecasts GDP growth at only about 1.5%<\/p>\n

in the medium term.<\/p>\n

\u201cVery<\/p>\n

weak SOEs across a number of sectors, including electricity and transport, both<\/p>\n

contribute to weak growth and are affected by it, without any prospects of<\/p>\n

significant improvements in the foreseeable future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, it<\/p>\n

said that South Africa\u2019s ratings could be upgraded if it showed significant<\/p>\n

progress towards alleviating these structural constraints on growth. “Firm<\/p>\n

signs that the rehabilitation of the energy sector is underway would also be a<\/p>\n

key marker, pointing to higher growth and lower contingent liability risks from<\/p>\n

the SOEs sector.”<\/p>\n

Ratings<\/p>\n

could be downgraded if growth prospects and government\u2019s fiscal strength<\/p>\n

deteriorated.<\/p>\n

In a statement, National Treasury welcomed Moody\u2019s<\/p>\n

upgrade to South Africa\u2019s outlook.<\/p>\n

It said that government is using a part of its additional<\/p>\n

tax income (a windfall due to the high commodity prices) to pay off more debt,<\/p>\n

while most of it will go towards urgent social needs, including job creation<\/p>\n

through the presidential employment initiative, and supporting the public<\/p>\n

health sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cFaster implementation of economic and SOC [state-owned<\/p>\n

corporation] reforms, accompanied by fiscal consolidation to provide a stable<\/p>\n

foundation for growth, will ease investor concerns, and support a faster<\/p>\n

recovery and higher levels of economic growth,\u201d Treasury said.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. The credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded its outlook on South Africa from \u201cnegative\u201d to \u201cstable\u201d. Moody\u2019s previously rated South Africa at Ba2 (two rungs below investment grade), with a negative outlook \u2013 which means the next step could potentially be another downgrade. It is keeping South Africa at Ba2, but changed its […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":28482,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3,8],"tags":[274,315,1241,1240,275],"class_list":["post-28483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-community","category-homepage-english","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-credit-rating","tag-moodys","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nMoody's upgrades South Africa's outlook from \u2018negative\u2019 to \u2018stable\u2019 - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The credit rating agency Moody's upgraded its outlook on South Africa from \u201cnegative\u201d to \u201cstable\u201d. 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