{"id":28531,"date":"2022-04-03T19:45:29","date_gmt":"2022-04-03T19:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/oil-prices-dont-fully-reflect-russian-supply-risks-says-trading-giant-vitol"},"modified":"2022-04-03T19:51:56","modified_gmt":"2022-04-03T19:51:56","slug":"oil-prices-dont-fully-reflect-russian-supply-risks-says-trading-giant-vitol","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/oil-prices-dont-fully-reflect-russian-supply-risks-says-trading-giant-vitol","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices don\u2019t fully reflect Russian supply risks says trading giant Vitol"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>Oil prices have fallen to levels that don\u2019t fully reflect the risk of disruptions to Russian exports or the ability of China to keep the coronavirus pandemic under control, according to the world\u2019s biggest independent crude trader.<\/p>\n

While Brent surged to almost $140 (about R2000) a barrel soon after Russia\u2019s attack on Ukraine in late February, it sunk 13% last week to around $104. That was due to the US announcing an unprecedented release of strategic reserves to tame fuel prices and China implementing more virus lockdowns.<\/p>\n

Those developments overshadowed the potential for a drop in oil from Russia over the coming months. Traders, shippers, insurers and bankers are wary of taking on Russian barrels as Western governments isolate and sanction Moscow for its invasion.<\/p>\n

\u201cOil feels cheaper than most would\u2019ve predicted,\u201d Mike Muller, Vitol Group\u2019s head of Asia, said Sunday on a podcast produced by Dubai-based consultant and publisher Gulf Intelligence. \u201cOil prices could be higher given the risk of disruption of supplies from Russia. But people are still lost figuring out those numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Flows of Russian crude and oil products may be down by between one and three million barrels a day through the third quarter, according to Muller. The country normally exports around 7.5 million barrels every day.<\/p>\n

China has placed almost all of Shanghai\u2019s 25 million residents under some form of lockdown as the financial hub struggles to contain the omicron variant of the virus. The government has ordered local officials to curtail the outbreak \u201cas soon as possible\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cI happen to be in the camp that thinks China will continue to suppress this,\u201d Muller said. \u201cThe Chinese are certainly making a good fist of arresting it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Beijing will probably announce more economic stimulus measures before the Communist Party Congress later this year, Muller said. Such a move would likely bolster demand for oil in the world\u2019s biggest importer.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina will throw the kitchen sink at making sure the economy delivers,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are going to see China put a massive effort into infrastructure spending and propping up the economy. You\u2019re going to see a big outlay.\u201d<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also less chance of the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers being revived in the coming months, according to Muller. A deal would limit Tehran\u2019s atomic activities and lift US sanctions on its energy exports, enabling it to ramp up oil production.<\/p>\n

American officials said late last month that a pact wasn\u2019t \u201cimminent,\u201d while Iran has made similar comments. Envoys are yet to say when they\u2019ll return to Vienna for negotiations and many US allies in the Middle East, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, are wary that a revival of the deal would hand Iran an oil windfall and allow it to continue arming proxy groups in the region.<\/p>\n

\u201cEveryone was expecting a return of Iranian supplies,\u201d Muller said. Now \u201cnobody believes that\u2019s going to happen in the second quarter. It looks much less likely than it did a few weeks back\u201d.<\/p>\n

Geneva-based Vitol traded 7.6 million barrels of crude and oil products last year, and made revenue of $279 billion (about R4 trillion).<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. Oil prices have fallen to levels that don\u2019t fully reflect the risk of disruptions to Russian exports or the ability of China to keep the coronavirus pandemic under control, according to the world\u2019s biggest independent crude trader. While Brent surged to almost $140 (about R2000) a barrel soon after Russia\u2019s attack on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":28530,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5,8],"tags":[274,315,1272,349,275,1271,1269,1270],"class_list":["post-28531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","category-homepage-english","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-mike-muller","tag-oil","tag-south-africa-2","tag-supply-chain-constraints","tag-trading","tag-vitol"],"yoast_head":"\nOil prices don\u2019t fully reflect Russian supply risks says trading giant Vitol - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil prices have fallen to levels that don\u2019t fully reflect the risk of disruptions to Russian exports or the ability of C ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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