{"id":35878,"date":"2022-08-25T18:09:30","date_gmt":"2022-08-25T18:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/unadventurous-reserve-bank-saved-sa-from-high-inflation-interest-rates-says-deputy-governor"},"modified":"2022-08-25T18:15:13","modified_gmt":"2022-08-25T18:15:13","slug":"unadventurous-reserve-bank-saved-sa-from-high-inflation-interest-rates-says-deputy-governor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/unadventurous-reserve-bank-saved-sa-from-high-inflation-interest-rates-says-deputy-governor","title":{"rendered":"‘Unadventurous’ Reserve Bank saved SA from high inflation, interest rates, says deputy governor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>The South African central bank\u2019s proactive efforts to contain price growth mean the country has a good chance of getting through the worst global inflation shock in a generation “without particularly high<\/p>\n

inflation or high interest rates,” Deputy Governor Fundi Tshazibana said. Policy makers began a preemptive hiking cycle in November and has since lifted the benchmark rate by 200 basis points to 5.5%, unwinding<\/p>\n

some of 2020\u2019s pandemic-era stimulus. Its stance has repeatedly drawn criticism from some politicians and labour unions who\u2019ve urged the central bank to do more<\/p>\n

to support cash-strapped South Africans and the domestic economy. The Reserve Bank has a constitutional mandate to maintain price stability in the interest of balanced and sustainable economic growth and<\/p>\n

it prefers to anchor inflation expectations close to the 4.5% midpoint of its target range. While the change in the headline consumer-price index breached<\/p>\n

the target ceiling for a third-straight month in July, economists, including Annabel Bishop of Investec Bank, predict the 7.8% outcome is likely to be the<\/p>\n

peak of the cycle. “I hope you have all taken time to appreciate the fact that South Africa\u2019s inflation has been below the inflation rates of the United<\/p>\n

States, the United Kingdom and even Germany, in recent months,” Tshazibana said in a copy of a speech posted on the central bank\u2019s website on Thursday. “Perhaps<\/p>\n

more relevant, we have not seen target misses of the scale experienced by many of our peers, and unlike those countries, we have not had to raise rates well<\/p>\n

into restrictive territory.” In reading accounts of what central bankers got wrong and that contributed to the ongoing surge in inflation, “I realise that<\/p>\n

despite the criticisms \u2014 we at the SARB are sometimes attacked for not being adventurous \u2014 it is clear that when central banks do become adventurous, the<\/p>\n

consequences can be even more unpopular,” she said. In retrospect, South Africa\u2019s central bank probably effected “about the right amount of stimulus in 2020, and we probably started<\/p>\n

withdrawing stimulus at about the right time in late 2021,” Tshazibana said. While Russia\u2019s war with Ukraine was an unexpected shock, South Africa\u2019s inflation profile wasn\u2019t “too problematic” before then, she said.<\/p>\n

Despite last month\u2019s most aggressive hike in almost two decades, South Africa\u2019s real interest rate \u2014 the differential that makes local assets attractive to foreign investors \u2014 remains deeply negative. The question<\/p>\n

of how quickly the Reserve Bank needs to get to positive real rates, and ultimately a more neutral monetary policy stance, depends on the persistence of<\/p>\n

higher inflation, Tshazibana said. The implied policy rate path of the Reserve Bank\u2019s quarterly projection model, which the monetary policy committee uses as a guide, indicates a key rate of 5.61% by year-end and 6.78% at the end of 2024.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. The South African central bank\u2019s proactive efforts to contain price growth mean the country has a good chance of getting through the worst global inflation shock in a generation “without particularly high inflation or high interest rates,” Deputy Governor Fundi Tshazibana said. Policy makers began a preemptive hiking cycle in November and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":35877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5,8],"tags":[274,315,1015,1977,609,275],"class_list":["post-35878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","category-homepage-english","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-reserve-bank","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\n'Unadventurous' Reserve Bank saved SA from high inflation, interest rates, says deputy governor - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The South African central bank\u2019s proactive efforts to contain price growth mean the country has a good chance of getting ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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