{"id":55603,"date":"2023-10-27T11:44:28","date_gmt":"2023-10-27T11:44:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/welcome-to-silly-season-roll-in-the-noise-feel-free-to-change-that"},"modified":"2023-10-27T12:05:01","modified_gmt":"2023-10-27T12:05:01","slug":"welcome-to-silly-season-roll-in-the-noise-feel-free-to-change-that","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/welcome-to-silly-season-roll-in-the-noise-feel-free-to-change-that","title":{"rendered":"‘WELCOME TO SILLY SEASON, ROLL IN THE NOISE – FEEL FREE TO CHANGE THAT’"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mandy Wiener <\/b><\/p>\n

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>If you had to look into your crystal ball and tell us who was going to win the Rugby World Cup final on Saturday night, you would be very popular and very wealthy.<\/p>\n

But if you could accurately predict the outcome of the national elections next year and work out which one of the myriad hypothetical coalition scenarios would emerge in control \u2013 you would be a prophet.<\/p>\n

We have now entered the silly season in South Africa and every single statement, every event, every strategic move must be viewed through the prism of next year\u2019s elections. Nothing will happen politically in this country over the next six to eight months that does not have some kind of context within the elections. The polls will be between May and August next year, but we are still waiting for the President to announce a date.<\/p>\n

This week the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) officially launched its election programme under the theme \u201cYour democracy, own it\u201d. The campaign targets young people and first-time voters who have not registered to vote.<\/p>\n

This is a priority considering the declining trend of voter turnout. In the last election in 2021, a local government vote, there was a 10-percentage point drop in turnout. Only 12 million citizens made the effort to go and mark their ballot papers. There are just over 26 million people on the voters\u2019 roll, but it is about getting those individuals to actually vote.<\/p>\n

What we can inevitably expect is wall-to-wall speculation and commentary on the various permutations that we could see out of the elections. We are firmly in the land of coalition politics and that means it\u2019s anybody\u2019s game.<\/p>\n

Whatever weight you attach to surveys may also impact expectations.<\/p>\n

The latest poll from the Brenthurst Foundation, released last week, tells us that the ANC is polling at 41% of the vote nationally, the DA at 23%, the EFF at a surprising 17% and the Moonshot Pact at 36%.<\/p>\n

Other polls have the ANC higher with some commentators suggesting that the ruling party will settle at 50 plus one percent. It all depends on how long the ANC can go.<\/p>\n

This will determine various scenarios. Do they form a government with smaller parties such as COPE, AIC, and the NFP? Do they go into coalition with the EFF, a scenario that the DA has described as the very worst case? Or do they form a centrist coalition with the Democratic Alliance?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The Daily Maverick is also reporting that the ANC\u2019s NEC has ratified a decision which could see the party cut ties with the EFF and Patriotic Alliance at the local government level. To date, the ANC has worked with the EFF and\/or the PA to remove mayors in Johannesburg, Mogale City and Ekhuruleni but are now realising the implications of doing deals with these partners.<\/p>\n

This may scupper a potential ANC\/EFF partnership at the national level too and makes a DA alliance more palatable. The ANC Veterans League is also in favour of a grand coalition model.<\/p>\n

Chess moves, horse trading and strategising. All of that will likely only be worked out once we know the results of the elections so for the next half a year we are going to be occupied by bluster and distractions. There is going to be noise upon noise upon noise.<\/p>\n

Those in positions of power will be parading the easy wins like replacing transformers and celebrating Springbok victories. The opposition politicians will be amplifying the fundamental failures like water and electricity supplies crumbling. Don\u2019t expect much real change to happen in the silly season.<\/p>\n

SOURCE:ewn<\/b><\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mandy Wiener Africa-Press – South-Africa. If you had to look into your crystal ball and tell us who was going to win the Rugby World Cup final on Saturday night, you would be very popular and very wealthy. But if you could accurately predict the outcome of the national elections next year and work out […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":55602,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[274,315,275],"class_list":["post-55603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\n'WELCOME TO SILLY SEASON, ROLL IN THE NOISE - FEEL FREE TO CHANGE THAT' - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If you had to look into your crystal ball and tell us who was going to win the Rugby World Cup final on Saturday night, ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/welcome-to-silly-season-roll-in-the-noise-feel-free-to-change-that\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"'WELCOME TO SILLY SEASON, ROLL IN THE NOISE - 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