{"id":58355,"date":"2023-12-20T19:12:47","date_gmt":"2023-12-20T19:12:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024"},"modified":"2023-12-21T11:24:37","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T11:24:37","slug":"investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024","title":{"rendered":"Investors\u2019 biggest concerns for South Africa moving into 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>Risks around an election expected to be the most competitive since South Africa became a democracy in 1994 cloud the outlook for its stocks next year.<\/p>\n

While 40 national elections are due globally in 2024, the vote in South Africa is on Bank of America Corp. strategists\u2019 shortlist of the most market-relevant in developing countries.<\/p>\n

Turbulence around the poll \u2014 which is yet to be scheduled \u2014 threatens to curb the benefit to Johannesburg stocks from falling interest rates and a soft landing in major economies, investors say.<\/p>\n

Surveys suggest the ruling African National Congress could lose its absolute majority for the first time since coming to power almost 30 years ago, potentially forcing it to find coalition partners. It\u2019s this scenario that\u2019s spurring the greatest unease.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith unknown outcomes, there is a lot of uncertainty in the system,\u201d said Duncan Artus, chief investment officer at Allan Gray, which oversees about $31 billion from Cape Town.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is weighing on investor sentiment and particularly foreign participation in South African markets.\u201d<\/p>\n

An election result that pushes the ANC into a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters, the third-largest party in the 2019 vote and a group that advocates for the nationalization of banks, mines and land, \u201cwould spook the markets,\u201d according to Bloomberg Economist Yvonne Mhango.<\/p>\n

BofA strategists said last month they expect \u201ctense and competitive elections.\u201d<\/p>\n

Allan Gray\u2019s Artus expects local investors to continue to proceed cautiously, favouring fixed income over equities, until there is more certainty, he said in emailed comments.<\/p>\n

The election isn\u2019t the only concern for South African investors. Since hitting a record high in January, the main stock index has lagged behind the emerging-markets benchmark as a 15-year-old power crisis and crumbling port and rail infrastructure increase costs for local companies and constrain economic growth.<\/p>\n

Those headwinds have contributed to valuations that look attractive to some. Stocks in the FTSE\/Africa All-Share Index trade at 9.5 times future earnings, compared with 11.6 times for MSCI Inc.\u2019s emerging-market index.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe think that the South African equity market is very cheap, with a lot of value in the globally operated but locally listed shares, as well as select sectors and stocks within South Africa itself,\u201d said Nicholas Hops of Coronation Fund Managers, which oversees about $33 billion. \u201c<\/p>\n

Multiples are low \u2014 as are expectations \u2014 and many companies have the ability to compound their earnings going forward.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here are some more views from investors on the outlook for South African stocks<\/p>\n

Coronation\u2019s Hops<\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cElections always create volatility, and we expect an increase in the amount of political noise leading up to South Africa\u2019s 2024 national elections. Ultimately, though, the direction of the economy will have the largest impact on trading and the various sectors both in the short and the long term. South African-focused equities need a meaningful improvement in the operating conditions of the country in order to see better results.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ninety One\u2019s Hannes van den Berg, co-head of South African equity and multi-asset investment<\/p>\n

\u201cMarkets don\u2019t like uncertainty, and I think if the ruling party remains 50% and above, that\u2019s clear what happens. But if there\u2019s a probability \u2014 and I think a lot of polls are indicating there is a probability \u2014 that it\u2019s lower than 50%, markets will want to know, \u2018OK, what does this mean? And, how are the leaders going to deal with it.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe think there\u2019s an opportunity in the SA Inc. stocks \u2014 retail, banks, insurers and property companies. We also think there\u2019s an opportunity for resources. China\u2019s not going to be this big bang stimulus saviour that they were in 2017, but it will provide more constructive support to commodity demand into next year.<\/p>\n

Old Mutual Investment Group fund manager Jason Swartz<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce we get closer toward seeing rate cuts, which will probably only happen toward the middle or end of the year, then there will be a lot of opportunity. And, I think probably we could quite easily then get back to those 2023 highs because earnings should have recovered by then.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe eventuality of some cuts in interest rates could see some sort of uplift to really beaten-down domestic cyclicals, like clothing and retail, those businesses that have really struggled in a poor consumer and a low-growth South African environment.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cOur big underweight has been on the resources side, and that\u2019s more just because, in terms of where we are in the cycle, we want to be defensive. We think from a commodity price perspective, we could see some downside there.\u201d<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. Risks around an election expected to be the most competitive since South Africa became a democracy in 1994 cloud the outlook for its stocks next year. While 40 national elections are due globally in 2024, the vote in South Africa is on Bank of America Corp. strategists\u2019 shortlist of the most market-relevant […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":58354,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[274,315,275],"class_list":["post-58355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nInvestors\u2019 biggest concerns for South Africa moving into 2024 - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Risks around an election expected to be the most competitive since South Africa became a democracy in 1994 cloud the out ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Investors\u2019 biggest concerns for South Africa moving into 2024\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Risks around an election expected to be the most competitive since South Africa became a democracy in 1994 cloud the out ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-20T19:12:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-12-21T11:24:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2023\/12\/sm_1703087195.502009.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Investors\u2019 biggest concerns for South Africa moving into 2024\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-12-20T19:12:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-12-21T11:24:37+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024\"},\"wordCount\":769,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2023\/12\/sm_1703087195.502009.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-South-Africa\",\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-biggest-concerns-for-south-africa-moving-into-2024\",\"name\":\"Investors\u2019 biggest concerns for South Africa moving into 2024 - 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