{"id":62014,"date":"2024-02-29T17:48:17","date_gmt":"2024-02-29T17:48:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-divided-on-south-african-government-debt"},"modified":"2024-02-29T17:53:31","modified_gmt":"2024-02-29T17:53:31","slug":"investors-divided-on-south-african-government-debt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/investors-divided-on-south-african-government-debt","title":{"rendered":"Investors divided on South African government debt"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>Fluctuations in South Africa\u2019s local bond markets have opened up a split among investors.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs sees the nation\u2019s high yields and expectations of disinflation as attractive, while EM debt-focused hedge fund Promeritum Investment Management said it was betting on the bonds due to a fiscal rule that will help anchor South Africa\u2019s public finances.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan and UBS Asset Management appear more cautious. Upcoming general elections, along with uncertainty over the timing of interest-rate cuts in the US and South Africa, have persuaded them to stay on the sidelines for now.<\/p>\n

February\u2019s bond performance seems to favour caution among foreign investors. Local currency bonds saw a 4.3% loss in dollar terms versus the 0.2% return by emerging-market peers.<\/p>\n

Foreign investors sold 15.5 billion rand worth of South African bonds during this period based on settled trade data reported by the JSE.<\/p>\n

Forward-rate agreements indicate a shift in sentiment towards when the first rate cut in South Africa may come, with a 24% probability of a quarter-point easing in May, down from the previous 100% conviction at the start of February.<\/p>\n

Governor Lesetja Kganyago has reiterated the central bank\u2019s preference for inflation to settle closer to the midpoint of 4.5% before considering rate cuts. Inflation stood at 5.3% in January.<\/p>\n

Manik Narain, head of EM Strategy at UBS, advises investors to \u201cawait better levels to buy local debt, FX hedged.\u201d<\/p>\n

He recommends awaiting a 9.25% yield on rand debt due in 2026 and 10.5% on securities maturing in the 2030s. Yields on the 2026 bonds were observed at 9%, while the 2030 bonds stood at 10.2% as of 1:40 p.m. in Johannesburg.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, strategists at JPMorgan took profit on their overweight position in South Africa\u2019s local currency bonds after the nation\u2019s budget presentation.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. Fluctuations in South Africa\u2019s local bond markets have opened up a split among investors. Goldman Sachs sees the nation\u2019s high yields and expectations of disinflation as attractive, while EM debt-focused hedge fund Promeritum Investment Management said it was betting on the bonds due to a fiscal rule that will help anchor South […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":62013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[274,315,275],"class_list":["post-62014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nInvestors divided on South African government debt - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fluctuations in South Africa\u2019s local bond markets have opened up a split among investors. 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