{"id":63534,"date":"2024-04-02T17:39:13","date_gmt":"2024-04-02T17:39:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa"},"modified":"2024-04-02T18:14:59","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T18:14:59","slug":"another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa","title":{"rendered":"Another blow for interest rate hopefuls in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>After announcing another hold on interest rates last week, the indication from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is that relief is still some way off \u2013 and the forecasts for 2024 have already been cut.<\/p>\n

According to Nedbank\u2019s latest economic monitor, the group\u2019s economists believe that South Africa\u2019s hold on rates will carry on longer than expected, and only 50 basis points will be cut this year when the cycle eventually swings \u2013 down from the 75 basis point cuts previously forecast.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the SARB\u2019s inflation forecasts have not changed materially, the underlying tone of the Monetary Policy Committee\u2019s statement and the governor\u2019s (Lesetja Kganyago\u2019s) press comments suggest a bias towards keeping interest rates at the current restrictive level for longer,\u201d the group said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis shift is also visible in the Quarterly Projection Model\u2019s repo rate projections, which now only recommend cumulative cuts of around 50bps in 2024 compared with 75bps at the previous meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nedbank said its forecasts are generally in line with those presented by the SARB \u2013 with the bank factoring in the big risks to inflation, including the El Nin\u0301o weather event\u2019s impact on food prices and the vulnerable rand.<\/p>\n

Argi experts are already warning of the adverse weather conditions and the impact on crops \u2013 with double-digit increases expected to hit staples like maize.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, electricity price hikes \u2013 in effect from Monday, 1 April 2024 \u2013 are also likely to feed through into higher costs for households.<\/p>\n

The rand, meanwhile, will likely suffer \u201cjitters\u201d up to and around the 29 May elections, where the outcome and makeup of government after the vote is still uncertain.<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven these risk factors\u2019 unpredictability, the MPC will likely remain cautious for longer,\u201d Nedbank said.<\/p>\n

\u201cConsequently, it now seems more likely that interest rates will remain unchanged deep into Q3, followed by two cuts of 25bps each in September and November. If these cuts materialise, the repo and prime rates end the year at 7.75% and 11.25%, respectively.\u201d<\/p>\n

Should these forecasts prove true, South Africa might lag the start of the cutting cycle by major global banks by a few months, with most projections pointing to a mid-year cycle for the US Fed. The Bank of England and European Central Bank are also anticipated to start cutting around June and July.<\/p>\n

Experts at Sanlam Invest warned ahead of the latest MPC meeting that South Africa is likely to experience a late cutting cycle in 2024 \u2013 and when the cuts come, they will be slow and shallow, dousing any hopes for a rapid descent.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. After announcing another hold on interest rates last week, the indication from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is that relief is still some way off \u2013 and the forecasts for 2024 have already been cut. According to Nedbank\u2019s latest economic monitor, the group\u2019s economists believe that South Africa\u2019s hold on rates […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":63533,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[274,315,275],"class_list":["post-63534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nAnother blow for interest rate hopefuls in South Africa - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After announcing another hold on interest rates last week, the indication from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Another blow for interest rate hopefuls in South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After announcing another hold on interest rates last week, the indication from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-02T17:39:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-02T18:14:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2024\/04\/sm_1712069004.621931.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Another blow for interest rate hopefuls in South Africa\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-04-02T17:39:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-04-02T18:14:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa\"},\"wordCount\":440,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2024\/04\/sm_1712069004.621931.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-South-Africa\",\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/another-blow-for-interest-rate-hopefuls-in-south-africa\",\"name\":\"Another blow for interest rate hopefuls in South Africa - 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