Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>While numerous pre-election polls predict that the incumbent African National Congress (ANC) will take a hit in electoral support in the coming elections, South Africa\u2019s seventh democratic administration will most likely still see the ANC in the driving seat.<\/p>\nIf the ANC does, in fact, get below the 50% +1 for an outright majority as many predict, the question of who the party will get into bed with is the next big concern.<\/p>\n
Different views of this were discussed at Nedgroup\u2019s pre-election roundtable on 24 April 2024, where independent political analyst J.P Landman and senior economist at Nedbank, Isaac Matshego outlined various scenarios that could play out.<\/p>\n
\u201cSouth Africa is clearly a one-party dominant state up to now, and the expectation is that we will stop being that at the end of May… that may or may not happen, [but] I think people are perhaps getting a little bit ahead of themselves,\u201d said Landman.<\/p>\n
Despite this apprehension to jump the gun, numerous outcomes are being laid bare and analysed with a fine-toothed comb, particularly if the ruling party loses its outright majority.<\/p>\n
Landman and Matshego said that most of these scenarios presented should not be considered election predictions but rather hypotheses based on underlying trends.<\/p>\n
The end of the one-party state \u2013 and deeper fragmentation<\/p>\n
In this scenario, Landman said that instead of a major growth in party dominance, the 2024 elections would lead to a fragmentation of South Africa\u2019s political landscape.<\/p>\n
After the 2019 national elections, 14 political parties made it to parliament. Three of these parties shared 89% of the vote, with the 11 others sharing the remaining 11%.<\/p>\n
Looking at these parties, the African National Congress (ANC) received 57.3% of the vote, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 20.17%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 10.19%, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) with 3.38%, and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) with 2.38%.<\/p>\n
The top five parties collectively received 93% of the vote, while the remaining nine parties in parliament received less than 1% each.<\/p>\n
The 2021 local government elections saw the ANC take a big hit in its support base, dropping over 10% to receive 45.6% of the vote.<\/p>\n
Landman said that given the country\u2019s pressing issues, such as sky-high unemployment, one would think that the votes lost by the ANC would go to the \u2018bigger\u2019 official opposition parties (DA and EFF) \u2013 but this was not the case.<\/p>\n
What was seen was that newly established parties (like ActionSA) and \u201csmaller parties\u201d (below the double-digit percentage mark) received a major boost in support.<\/p>\n
Landman thinks this will again be the case in the May 29th elections, with South Africa\u2019s post-election landscape showing much \u201cmore fragmentation,\u201d especially given the proliferation of new parties and the inclusion of independent candidates on the ballots.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think that\u2019s the number one thing \u2013 more support for smaller parties,\u201d said Landman.<\/p>\n
Whether it\u2019s Herman Mashaba\u2019s ActionSA, Songezo Zibi\u2019s Rise Mzanzi, Mmusi Maimane\u2019s Build One South Africa (BOSA), Gayton McKenzie\u2019s Patriotic Alliance (PA) or, of course, Jacob Zuma\u2019s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), these parties are likely to garner decent support.<\/p>\n
Speaking about the new and \u2018smaller\u2019 parties, Landman said that Zuma\u2019s MKP is \u201cdoing well\u201d and will \u201ckeep the EFF down\u201d \u2013 however, he doubts that it would exceed the 5% mark at a national level.<\/p>\n
Additionally, he expects the PA to give the DA a major headache in the only province it governs, the Western Cape, by eating into a chunk of its support.<\/p>\n
Possible coalitions<\/p>\n
Nedbank senior economist Isaac Matshego said that the banking group has anticipated three election coalition outcomes.<\/p>\n
Nedbank\u2019s \u201cmost likely\u201d outcome is a coalition between the ANC and IFP or other \u2018smaller parties\u2019.<\/p>\n
This coalition is predicted by the group if the ANC falls \u201cjust short\u201d of the 50% + 1 mark, which means that they would not need a party with a double digit popular vote percentage to get over the line.<\/p>\n
The next coalition outcome is that between the ANC and the DA, which Matshego expects would greatly \u201cliberalise the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n
The coalition that Nedbank labels as the \u201cextreme left\u201d outcome would be a coalition between the ANC and EFF. However, Matshego believes that this is the \u201cmost unlikely due to factions and extreme demands from the EFF.\u201d<\/p>\n
Matshego and Landman noted that it is unlikely for the ANC and EFF to go into a coalition at a national level but remains likely at provincial levels, particularly in Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal.<\/p>\n
Landman said that his hope is for \u201ca stable government, which can rule for five years with predictability and a high degree of efficiency,\u201d and pins this on an ANC and DA coalition, which would force them to \u201cstop their nonsense.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, he doubts this would be the case if an effective coalition governing agreement is not drafted and agreed to. Based on prevalent ailments in coalitions at various local government levels, Landman is unsure if \u201cour politics [has] reached that degree of maturity,\u201d yet.<\/p>\n
Coalition pacts<\/p>\n
Landman said the idea of the Multi-Party Charter (comprised of the DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF +, African Christian Democratic Party, United Christian Democratic Party, and the United Independent Movement) taking over at a national level is beyond unlikely \u2013 given that they are collectively polling at just over 30% nationally.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey may do well here in Gauteng, and we will see how they do in KwaZulu-Natal, but changing the national government, just forget that,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Landman also thinks a coalition pact of \u2018left-aligned\u2019 parties may form after the May 29 elections, similar to the Multi-Party Charter\u2019s coalition pact of \u2018right-leaning\u2019 parties.<\/p>\n
This includes parties like the EFF, MKP, Ace Magashule\u2019s African Congress for Transformation and the African Transformation Movement.<\/p>\n
Landman believes that this is a good thing because \u201cwe will have a radical economic transformation on the left, free marketeers on the right and a kind of a social democratic party in the middle.\u201d<\/p>\n
This means that \u201cwe will get the reorientation of politics that will move us away from identity politics to politics of policy.\u201d<\/p>\n
For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Seth Thorne Africa-Press – South-Africa. While numerous pre-election polls predict that the incumbent African National Congress (ANC) will take a hit in electoral support in the coming elections, South Africa\u2019s seventh democratic administration will most likely still see the ANC in the driving seat. If the ANC does, in fact, get below the 50% +1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":65041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6,377],"tags":[274,315,275],"class_list":["post-65042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","category-to-homepage","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\n
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