{"id":65547,"date":"2024-05-04T16:54:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-04T16:54:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen"},"modified":"2024-05-04T17:27:49","modified_gmt":"2024-05-04T17:27:49","slug":"south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen","title":{"rendered":"South Africa\u2019s NHI disaster waiting to happen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff6600\"><strong>Africa-Press &#8211; South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>Investec Healthcare Equity Analyst Letlotlo Lenake says that the NHI is completely unaffordable and presents a material risk for South Africa\u2019s economy \u2013 especially with the foundational premise that 5 million taxpayers will foot the healthcare bill for over 60 million.<\/p>\n<p>As the ANC-led government and president Cyril Ramaphosa <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/770318\/ramaphosa-dangles-nhi-in-front-of-workers-as-election-date-draws-near\/\">charge ahead with plans to sign the National Health Insurance Bill into law<\/a>, Lanake said the response to the question of whether South Africa can afford the system is a \u201cresounding no\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking on the latest Investec Focus Podcast, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investec.com\/en_za\/focus\/no-ordinary-wednesday-with-jeremy-maggs\/sa-healthcare-conundrum.html\">No Ordinary Wednesday<\/a>, the analyst said that the NHI Bill, as it currently stands, carries both quantitative and qualitative risks to the country.<\/p>\n<p>Quantitatively, the estimated costs of the NHI are unachievable with the country\u2019s tax base, and qualitatively, the resultant impact on resources like doctors and healthcare professionals poses even greater risks to healthcare in the country.<\/p>\n<p>Lenake noted that the current annual estimates of the NHI\u2014around R256 billion a year\u2014are based on 10-year-old whitepapers and projections and haven\u2019t been updated for inflation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs a percentage of GDP, we\u2019re looking at double digits. For an emerging economy, this is a significant amount to spend on healthcare,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>According to the bill, a big portion of the NHI Fund will be coming from taxes. <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/768032\/nhi-tax-hikes-are-coming\/\">Either through budget reprioritisation or a host of other taxes.<\/a> This is simply something the South African taxpayer cannot bear.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you take away medical aid tax credits, it adds quite significant costs on top of education and healthcare \u2013 it sends the wrong signals to an already small tax base,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Lenake said that there are currently around 24 million registered taxpayers in South Africa, but only a fraction of that account for the bulk of taxes, probably around 5 million.<\/p>\n<p>Having 5 million taxpayers financing the healthcare needs of 60 million people does not make any sense, he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is a resounding no that South Africa can afford this,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Government\u2019s delusion<\/p>\n<p>Health activist and convenor of the Progressive Health Forum, Dr Aslam Dasoo, added to the discussion, saying that, once fully implemented, the NHI will likely cost around R700 billion.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat will have to be raised and put into a fund. And the way they want to do that is by eliminating all medical schemes and having a single-payer run by the government, through the SOE model,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou will no longer have any choice. This is a problem. The entire premise is misguided and misdirected.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Dasoo said that South Africa\u2019s public and private healthcare crisis was driven by the government, which mismanaged the public sector for 20 years and failed to regulate the private sector \u2013 and so now it is trying to direct attention away from this with the promises of an impossible system.<\/p>\n<p>Health activist and convenor of the Progressive Health Forum, Dr Aslam Dasoo<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe NHI is a political sleight of hand. It\u2019s a distraction; a deflection from a government that, over 20 years, has brought one of the best propositions we\u2019ve had for anything approaching, say, the NHS in the UK, to its knees.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Dasoo said that the NHI will not fix anything in South Africa because the government has failed to grasp that healthcare is an end-cost, a system that develops in response to declining health.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHealth is the start \u2013 based on social and economic determinants,\u201d he said, adding that this includes nutrition, shelter, access to water, access to safety and education.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf there is a breakdown in any of those modalities, health suffers, and the healthcare system has to respond. The failure to grasp that is criminal neglect,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The health expert said that the government should \u201cdispense with the delusion of the NHI\u201d and that the private sector needs to stop walking on eggshells and demand that the bill in its entirety be sent back to parliament.<\/p>\n<p>The solution to the healthcare crisis, he said, is to \u201cdo what is logical\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf 85% to 90% of your population use the public system, spend your time on that. Fix that. Fix that to the extent that those who don\u2019t want to be in private healthcare start migrating back.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe private sector must be regulated. There are the recommended regulations in writing. Implement (them). Do those two things, and in five years you will have a completely different healthcare system,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><b>source:businesstech<\/b><\/p>\n<p><strong>For More News And Analysis About <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\">South-Africa<\/a> Follow <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/\">Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Africa-Press &#8211; South-Africa. Investec Healthcare Equity Analyst Letlotlo Lenake says that the NHI is completely unaffordable and presents a material risk for South Africa\u2019s economy \u2013 especially with the foundational premise that 5 million taxpayers will foot the healthcare bill for over 60 million. As the ANC-led government and president Cyril Ramaphosa charge ahead with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":65546,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[274,315,275],"class_list":["post-65547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.1 (Yoast SEO v27.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>South Africa\u2019s NHI disaster waiting to happen - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investec Healthcare Equity Analyst Letlotlo Lenake says that the NHI is completely unaffordable and presents a material ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Africa\u2019s NHI disaster waiting to happen\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Investec Healthcare Equity Analyst Letlotlo Lenake says that the NHI is completely unaffordable and presents a material ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-05-04T16:54:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-04T17:27:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2024\/05\/sm_1714830916.768406.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"South Africa\u2019s NHI disaster waiting to happen\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-05-04T16:54:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-04T17:27:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen\"},\"wordCount\":749,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2024\/05\/sm_1714830916.768406.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-South-Africa\",\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africas-nhi-disaster-waiting-to-happen\",\"name\":\"South Africa\u2019s NHI disaster waiting to happen - 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