{"id":65862,"date":"2024-05-10T17:00:42","date_gmt":"2024-05-10T17:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics"},"modified":"2024-05-10T17:20:27","modified_gmt":"2024-05-10T17:20:27","slug":"trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics","title":{"rendered":"Trouble ahead if ANC stays dominant party \u2013 Oxford Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>South Africa will continue down a troubling path if the ANC loses its majority but teams up with smaller parties to form a coalition in the upcoming elections.<\/p>\n

This is according to Oxford Economics\u2019 senior political analyst, Louw Nel, who recently published the organisation\u2019s first of four scenarios for South Africa\u2019s general election on 29 May 2024.<\/p>\n

In the first scenario outcome, the ANC loses power but is close enough to the 50% threshold to have the upper hand in coalition negotiations.<\/p>\n

The IFP chooses to align with the ANC in exchange for influence and appointments in KwaZulu-Natal.<\/p>\n

The Patriotic Alliance, a party that hunts for votes in the coloured community, is part of the party, as are Al-Jama\u2019ah, a party that plays on Muslim identity, and some minor parties with a leftist and Africanist inclination.<\/p>\n

In this scenario, Nel said the government will not deviate from the ANC\u2019s own policy stance.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

He explained that the domestic economy\u2019s problems are structural, exacerbated by a lack of investment and insufficient maintenance of critical infrastructure over the years.<\/p>\n

South Africa\u2019s investment rate has been dropping since 2013 \u2013 for both the public and private sectors \u2013 limiting the economy\u2019s capacity to generate sufficient employment growth and expand the supply of goods and services.<\/p>\n

\u201cLow levels of private sector confidence, state capture and ineffective policies are among the key reasons for the decline,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

In particular, state-owned entities, of which Eskom and Transnet are the largest and most important, have become hugely inefficient over the past 15 years.<\/p>\n

Nel said this has severely curtailed the commercial prospects of businesses across the economy.<\/p>\n

The National Treasury has noted that over a third of the decline in economic growth after 2010 could be explained by the direct effects of reduced productivity from public utilities.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis means that South Africa forewent R2 trillion in economic activity between 2011 and 2019 as a result of underperforming SOEs, a figure that has since increased substantially,\u201d Nel said.<\/p>\n


\nNo change expected<\/b><\/p>\n

Some of South Africa\u2019s most prominent business leaders have said South Africa\u2019s national elections will not result in significant policy changes.<\/p>\n

This is because they suspect the ruling ANC will remain the dominant political force, and its reform agenda will remain in place.<\/p>\n

Standard Bank Group CEO Sim Tshabalala said in the company\u2019s annual report that its base case is that the country\u2019s policies will remain largely unchanged.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur base case is that policy continuity will be largely maintained after the election, including the current administration\u2019s programme of structural reform, a path that will gradually improve South Africa\u2019s economic performance,\u201d he said in his CEO\u2019s report.<\/p>\n

However, Tshabalala said that uncertainty in the build-up to the election will limit investment in South Africa and, thus, economic growth.<\/p>\n

The bank\u2019s South Africa CEO, Lungisa Fuzile, echoed Tshabalala in saying that no fundamental changes are expected to come as a result of the election.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe do not anticipate that the election outcome will lead to a change in policy direction. Accordingly, the continued gradual policy reform should be growth-supportive over time,\u201d Fuzile said.<\/p>\n

Outgoing Nedbank CEO Mike Brown said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum earlier this year that the ANC will be central to any future government in South Africa.<\/p>\n

The collapse of state-owned enterprises and state-run institutions has led many to believe the country needs political change and that change will occur in this year\u2019s elections.<\/p>\n

However, Brown does not believe the ANC can be dismissed as a political force, and its policies will continue to be those of the national government for some time.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you stand back and look at it from a policy point of view, the polls may indicate the ANC is losing support, but central to any government going forward will be the ANC and the policies they currently have,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The ANC\u2019s policies are largely correct in addressing South Africa\u2019s major challenges but have taken far too long to implement.<\/p>\n

\u201cCertainly, as business, we would want accelerated delivery of government\u2019s stated economic policies because that is what is hindering economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. South Africa will continue down a troubling path if the ANC loses its majority but teams up with smaller parties to form a coalition in the upcoming elections. This is according to Oxford Economics\u2019 senior political analyst, Louw Nel, who recently published the organisation\u2019s first of four scenarios for South Africa\u2019s general […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":65860,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,10,377],"tags":[274,315,275],"class_list":["post-65862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-parties","category-to-homepage","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nTrouble ahead if ANC stays dominant party \u2013 Oxford Economics - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"South Africa will continue down a troubling path if the ANC loses its majority but teams up with smaller parties to form ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trouble ahead if ANC stays dominant party \u2013 Oxford Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Africa will continue down a troubling path if the ANC loses its majority but teams up with smaller parties to form ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-05-10T17:00:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-10T17:20:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2024\/05\/sm_1715348945.219881.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Trouble ahead if ANC stays dominant party \u2013 Oxford Economics\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-05-10T17:00:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-10T17:20:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics\"},\"wordCount\":713,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2024\/05\/sm_1715348945.219881.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-South-Africa\",\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"parties\",\"to-homepage\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/trouble-ahead-if-anc-stays-dominant-party-oxford-economics\",\"name\":\"Trouble ahead if ANC stays dominant party \u2013 Oxford Economics - 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