{"id":89271,"date":"2025-09-05T19:10:20","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T19:10:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom"},"modified":"2025-09-05T19:12:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T19:12:08","slug":"south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom","title":{"rendered":"South Africa has hit rock bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>Over the past decade, South Africa\u2019s economy has endured multiple shocks and regressions, but with several reforms underway and notable progress in certain areas, the worst seems to be over.<\/p>\n

Now, unless the country sees a severe political or service-delivery shock, South Africa is well on the path to recovery and annual growth of 1% to 2%, with the likelihood of a sustained collapse to zero very low.<\/p>\n

This is feedback from Efficient Group economist Dr Francois Stofberg, who explained that, while it is tempting to think South Africa\u2019s decline will continue indefinitely, the country has already absorbed the worst shocks.<\/p>\n

Stofberg pointed out that South Africa\u2019s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged less than 1% since 2014.<\/p>\n

However, progress in several reform areas across the country, including the electricity and logistics sectors, points to a sustained recovery in the near future.<\/p>\n

\u201cBarring a severe political or service-delivery shock, the probability of a sustained collapse to zero or negative growth is very low,\u201d Stofberg said.<\/p>\n

He explained that two of the biggest drags on South Africa\u2019s eocnomy over the past decade \u2013 electricity and logistics \u2013 are showing strong signs of recovery.<\/p>\n

Eskom\u2019s recovery in terms of keeping the lights on can clearly be seen. The country went from almost 300 days of rolling blackouts in 2023 to only 69 days in 2024.<\/p>\n

By mid-2025, the grid had delivered more than 100 consecutive days without load-shedding, with Eskom\u2019s energy availability factor holding in the mid-60s.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe electricity crisis is not solved but the structural break risk from total grid failure has eased,\u201d Stofberg said.<\/p>\n

On the logistics front, Transnet\u2019s progress continues to be slow, with the state-owned utility continuing to be a major bottleneck as freight rail volumes remain at historical lows.<\/p>\n

However, while progress is slow, it is also steady, and the utility\u2019s reform momentum is visible.<\/p>\n

The government has guaranteed R51 billion to stabilise Transnet\u2019s balance sheet, is opening freight rail to private operators, and has launched the concessioning of container terminals.<\/p>\n

Stofberg said that while execution will take years, the reform vector is finally positive.<\/p>\n

Slow and steady<\/b><\/p>\n

Dr Francois Stofberg<\/p>\n

While Stofberg is upbeat about South Africa\u2019s economic turnaround, this optimism remains cautious.<\/p>\n

He cautioned South Africans not to expect 3% to 5% annual growth anytime soon, as high unemployment, poor education outcomes, and low investment keep the ceiling low.<\/p>\n

In particularly, he warned that two \u201cdomestic fragilities\u201d still deserve caution when considering South Africa\u2019s growth prospects.<\/p>\n

Firstly, he pointed out that the country\u2019s water infrastructure and municipal finances are weak, with Gauteng \u2013 South Africa\u2019s economic powerhouse \u2013 already experiencing severe outages.<\/p>\n

Secondly, Stofberg warned that South Africa\u2019s fiscal path is tight, as the government\u2019s debt is projected to peak at 77% of GDP in 2025\/26, and any revenue shortfall or bailout could push this even higher.<\/p>\n

He noted that external risks, such as trade tensions, also need to be monitored.<\/p>\n

\u201cSouth Africa has little chance of a golden era of rapid growth, but it also faces minimal risk of collapse into failed-state status,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n

Therefore, while the ceiling may be low, the floor is firming, and with reforms underway, 1% to 2% real GDP growth looks achievable over the next few years.<\/p>\n

While 1% to 2% growth per year may sound modest, Stofberg said it signals that the worst is over.<\/p>\n

\u201cRelative to the global context, that stability matters. The International Monetary Fund projects advanced economies to grow just 1.4%,\u201d he pointed out.<\/p>\n

\u201cSouth Africa\u2019s growth may not dazzle, but in a slowing world, it can increasingly look resilient.\u201d He explained that, in a slowing world, South Africa can, once again, look comparatively strong.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe structural breaks are behind us. With electricity stabilising, logistics reforming, politics consolidating to the centre, and institutions holding, the most likely future is one of slow, steady stabilisation,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Source: dailyinvestor<\/b><\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/span> Follow Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. Over the past decade, South Africa\u2019s economy has endured multiple shocks and regressions, but with several reforms underway and notable progress in certain areas, the worst seems to be over. Now, unless the country sees a severe political or service-delivery shock, South Africa is well on the path to recovery and annual […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":89270,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[275],"class_list":["post-89271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Africa has hit rock bottom - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Over the past decade, South Africa\u2019s economy has endured multiple shocks and regressions, but with several reforms under ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Africa has hit rock bottom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Over the past decade, South Africa\u2019s economy has endured multiple shocks and regressions, but with several reforms under ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-05T19:10:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-05T19:12:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2025\/09\/sm_1757086894.715258.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"South Africa has hit rock bottom\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-09-05T19:10:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-09-05T19:12:08+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom\"},\"wordCount\":659,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2025\/09\/sm_1757086894.715258.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-has-hit-rock-bottom\",\"name\":\"South Africa has hit rock bottom - 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