{"id":94646,"date":"2025-12-25T12:15:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-25T12:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster"},"modified":"2025-12-25T12:46:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-25T12:46:47","slug":"south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster","title":{"rendered":"South Africa walking head first into disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>Renowned economist Dawie Roodt says that the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme will be a disaster for taxpayers and the national fiscus\u2014something that the National Treasury is all too aware of.<\/p>\n

Speaking to Sakeliga executive director Russell Lamberti about the state of South Africa\u2019s economy, Roodt said that taxpayers are spent and the country has moved well past the top of the Laffer Curve.<\/p>\n

The Laffer Curve represents the \u201coptimal tax\u201d point where the state can collect maximum revenue.<\/p>\n

Higher taxes beyond this point may disincentivise work, entrepreneurship, and investment or lead to immorality and non-compliance, effectively reducing the overall tax base and revenues.<\/p>\n

In South Africa\u2019s case, when looking at the main sources of tax, Personal Income, Corporate Income and Value Added Tax, every measure has shot past this optimal point.<\/p>\n

According to Roodt, the government\u2019s push for schemes like the NHI will impose even more taxes on taxpayers and potentially break the system.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t think the NHI is a realistic possibility, and one of the reasons is that it would require enormous tax increases\u2014massive amounts,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur own estimates, which are more on the conservative side, we\u2019ve looked at the NHI costing somewhere between R800 billion and R900 billion a year\u2014but it could actually be a lot higher than that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some estimates for the cost of the NHI have pushed as high as R1.5 trillion a year, based on different assumptions.<\/p>\n

The health department has repeatedly rejected the notion that the NHI will cost R1 trillion a year\u2014an estimate based on providing the same level of healthcare afforded to medical aid members, extrapolated onto every person in the country.<\/p>\n

However, the Health Department has also not published any official costing of the scheme, nor detailed what it will actually cover, leaving most estimates down to best-guesswork.<\/p>\n

Regardless, Roodt said that any additional funding allocated to taxpayers won\u2019t work.<\/p>\n

He said that the funding for the NHI can only come from either increased taxes or increased borrowing\u2014neither of which is something the country can afford.<\/p>\n

The oft-touted solution of \u201cprinting more money\u201d would be an abject disaster, he said. \u201cSo really, it\u2019s a tax story, and there\u2019s no space to increase taxes.\u201d<\/p>\n

National Treasury isn\u2019t biting<\/b><\/p>\n

Health Minister, Aaron Motsoaledi<\/p>\n

One of the more telling signs that the NHI is heading for disaster is that the National Treasury isn\u2019t diverting resources to it.<\/p>\n

Roodt said that, at face value, South Africa is spending around R20 billion a year on the NHI, but this is not direct financing for the scheme.<\/p>\n

However, in the broader context, the budget does not allocate or provision much for the NHI, which is the Treasury\u2019s way of saying that money could be better spent elsewhere.<\/p>\n

One of the key sources of planned funding for the NHI\u2014the removal of medical aid tax credits\u2014has also been broadly rejected by the finance minister, who described it as an attack on taxpayers.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf I read between the lines, the finance minister is telling the Department of Health, \u2018forget about it, there\u2019s no money for it,’\u201d Roodt said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re not saying it totally explicitly, but if you look at the medium-term budget forecast for healthcare spending, there\u2019s no provisioning for NHI spending.\u201d<\/p>\n

Roodt said that the government is likely to \u201ckeep on trying\u201d, but the NHI is not going to become a reality because we just do not have the money.<\/p>\n

He added that litigation is also mounting up against the scheme, and it is substantial. There are seven or eight major cases against the scheme, and it has become a significant litigation process.<\/p>\n

However, while there is a \u201clegal angle\u201d to the NHI not happening, the \u201creality angle\u201d is that the NHI cannot be funded without a taxpayer disaster.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/span> Follow Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. Renowned economist Dawie Roodt says that the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme will be a disaster for taxpayers and the national fiscus\u2014something that the National Treasury is all too aware of. Speaking to Sakeliga executive director Russell Lamberti about the state of South Africa\u2019s economy, Roodt said that taxpayers are spent and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":94644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[275],"class_list":["post-94646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Africa walking head first into disaster - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Renowned economist Dawie Roodt says that the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme will be a disaster for taxpayers and ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Africa walking head first into disaster\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Renowned economist Dawie Roodt says that the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme will be a disaster for taxpayers and ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-25T12:15:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-25T12:46:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2025\/12\/sm_1766654161.184319.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"879\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"486\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"South Africa walking head first into disaster\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-25T12:15:16+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-25T12:46:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster\"},\"wordCount\":663,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2025\/12\/sm_1766654161.184319.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-walking-head-first-into-disaster\",\"name\":\"South Africa walking head first into disaster - 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