{"id":95296,"date":"2026-02-04T09:41:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T09:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month"},"modified":"2026-02-04T09:53:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T09:53:09","slug":"south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month","title":{"rendered":"South Africa could catch a big break this month"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>South Africa\u2019s 2026 Budget could be near, or even below, the projections set in the medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) last year, thanks to an improved deficit outcome to date.<\/p>\n

This would be a welcome break from the budgets over the past few years, where fiscal slippage had become the norm, and the National Treasury had to make steep cuts or increase borrowing to fund the budget.<\/p>\n

According to Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop, South Africa\u2019s deficit widened to -5.0% of GDP in 2024 from -4.8% and to -4.7% from -4.6% as a degree of fiscal slippage persisted across all years to that point.<\/p>\n

Debt as a percentage of GDP also deteriorated over time, from 77.4% to 77.9% for the 2025\/26 estimate.<\/p>\n

\u201cFiscal slippage has become a general trend in South Africa, as in most cases the fiscal metrics deteriorate,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

However, with the latest government finance figures for the government financial year to date, \u201cthere is a chance now of some improvement in the outlook,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The revenue outcome to date is above last year at this point, at 71.2% versus 70.7% of total revenue budgeted for 2025\/26.<\/p>\n

The budget deficit is -R243 billion to date, down from -R286 billion a year ago, while expenditure is R1,656 billion, up from R1,565 billion a year ago.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt nine months of the year, the fiscal deficit is at -R243 billion, and for the full twelve months at this pace it would be -R327 billion, which is under the 2025\/26 revised fiscal deficit in the MTBPS\u2014by R26 billion, if the deficit growth persists at this milder pace,\u201d Bishop noted.<\/p>\n

Consequently, with the budget deficit so far in the first nine months of 2025\/26 running below the likely current full-year outcome\u2014if the deficit growth persists at the current mild pace\u2014the budget may avoid fiscal slippage without additional expenditure, the economist said.<\/p>\n

Markets looking to SONA for clues<\/b><\/p>\n

Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop<\/p>\n

While a narrower budget deficit would be good news for South Africa and point to an improved trajectory, it isn\u2019t without its worries.<\/p>\n

Notably, SARS\u2019 debt collection data shows that collections are currently R24 billion under target for the first nine months of 2025\/26.<\/p>\n

These monthly figures compare to the goal of raising R35 billion additional revenue in 2025\/26, over and above the R100 billion projected baseline from the prior year (2024\/25).<\/p>\n

At the same time, additional spending of R15.8 billion was proposed in 2025\u2019s MTBPS, including R4 billion to bolster SARS collections, R2 billion to rebuild Parliament buildings, R5.2 billion in rollovers from 2024\/25 and R1 billion to the IEC for the 2026 municipal elections.<\/p>\n

According to Bishop, markets will be looking to President Cyril Ramaphosa\u2019s State of the Nation Address next week (12 February 2026) for an indication of the budget reality.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe SONA tends to touch on the same themes each year, comparing progress against the prior year and can give insight into the budget,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, the SONA also has a degree of blandness as the same topics resurface.\u201d<\/p>\n

Business and investors will focus on updates and plans to reduce or eliminate the freight constraints, poor governance and crime and corruption, she said.<\/p>\n

While crises like load shedding are seen as largely eradicated, load reduction\u2014inadequate transmission capacity to meet demand\u2014remains a key problem for the security of electricity supply.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe water and sanitation crises still persist, along with high unemployment, poverty and weak growth,\u201d Bishop said.<\/p>\n

This is in addition to insufficient progress on reducing red tape and bureaucratic processes to further improve the ease of doing business.<\/p>\n

While investors and ratings agencies in particular are signalling a shift in sentiment, Bishop warned that they are not blind to key issues that have been raised for years.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe budget could be near, or below, MTBPS projections on improved deficit and deficit outcomes to date if they persist, (but) fiscal consolidation is still needed to return South Africa to an investment grade credit rating,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/span> Follow Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. South Africa\u2019s 2026 Budget could be near, or even below, the projections set in the medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) last year, thanks to an improved deficit outcome to date. This would be a welcome break from the budgets over the past few years, where fiscal slippage had become the norm, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":95295,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[275],"class_list":["post-95296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Africa could catch a big break this month - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"South Africa\u2019s 2026 Budget could be near, or even below, the projections set in the medium-term budget policy statement ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Africa could catch a big break this month\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Africa\u2019s 2026 Budget could be near, or even below, the projections set in the medium-term budget policy statement ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-04T09:41:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-04T09:53:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2026\/02\/sm_1770185820.145992.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"South Africa could catch a big break this month\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-04T09:41:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-04T09:53:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month\"},\"wordCount\":674,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2026\/02\/sm_1770185820.145992.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africa-could-catch-a-big-break-this-month\",\"name\":\"South Africa could catch a big break this month - 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