{"id":95371,"date":"2026-02-05T11:17:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T11:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa"},"modified":"2026-02-05T11:33:37","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T11:33:37","slug":"make-or-break-for-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa","title":{"rendered":"Make or break for South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for South Africa, with the country\u2019s reform efforts bearing fruit and putting it on track to achieve 2% growth in the coming years.<\/p>\n

However, if reforms stall and political instability returns, the country risks slipping back into weak growth and undoing the gains it has made over the past year.<\/p>\n

Citadel chief economist Maarten Ackerman explained that, for South Africa, 2026 could prove decisive. The country is seeing genuine green shoots, backed by positive economic signals, that point toward a turnaround.<\/p>\n

South Africa has seen its first credit rating upgrade in over two decades from S&P, has been removed from the Financial Action Task Force\u2019s grey list, and is on track to stabilise its state debt-to-GDP ratio in the current fiscal year.<\/p>\n

Ackerman also pointed to the Government of National Unity (GNU) as a positive development, with the coalition government having brought relative political stability.<\/p>\n

At the same time, he said improved energy security and private-sector participation are starting to ease long-standing constraints.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are genuine green shoots,\u201d Ackerman says. \u201cThe turnaround in electricity supply shows what is possible when policy certainty and private capital align.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, he warned that many of South Africa\u2019s recent gains were partly supported by favourable global conditions, including a commodity upswing.<\/p>\n

Coronation\u2019s head of fixed interest, Nishan Maharaj, has issued a similar warning, specifically with regard to South Africa\u2019s fiscal health.<\/p>\n

He explained that while the National Treasury expects South Africa\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio to stabilise in the current fiscal year, this has been driven by short-term factors rather than sustained financial improvements.<\/p>\n

Therefore, without faster economic growth, he argued that the Treasury\u2019s painful fiscal consolidation efforts are unlikely to translate into a sustainable reduction in South Africa\u2019s debt burden.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a make-or-break year,\u201d Ackerman said. \u201cIf reform stalls or political instability returns, South Africa risks slipping back into sub-1.5% growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf momentum holds, we can start rebuilding capacity and investor confidence.\u201d<\/p>\n

He noted that Citadel remains cautiously optimistic that South Africa can edge closer to 2% growth over the next three years.<\/p>\n

However, this will largely depend on whether investment conditions improve and infrastructure bottlenecks are eased.<\/p>\n

The game has changed<\/b><\/p>\n

US President Donald Trump<\/p>\n

South Africa\u2019s hopeful turnaround comes at a time when the global world order is shifting, with heightened volatility and uncertainty having become the norm.<\/p>\n

Ackerman explained that US President Donald Trump is remaking the world order, with his protectionist and \u2018America First\u2019 policies set to significantly change global trade and diplomatic relationships.<\/p>\n

At the same time, he explained that geopolitical power is becoming increasingly multi-polar, with rival blocs such as the G7 and BRICS competing for influence, resources and capital.<\/p>\n

In light of this, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where geopolitics \u2013 rather than economic fundamentals alone \u2013 will drive market volatility, capital flows, and investor confidence.<\/p>\n

This has notable implications for emerging markets like South Africa, with the country\u2019s open, export-dependent economy making it extremely vulnerable to external shocks.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are no longer operating in a single globalised economy,\u201d Ackerman said. \u201cEconomic fragmentation has become structural.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCountries are reshaping supply chains, prioritising regional trade partners and reassessing strategic resources, and that transition will define markets in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n

For investors, this means they should expect heightened volatility in 2026 as markets respond to political developments, policy shifts and structural realignments.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeriods of uncertainty are when discipline matters most,\u201d Ackerman said. \u201cValuations, diversification and a long-term financial plan are essential in a world where shocks are becoming more frequent and less predictable.\u201d<\/p>\n

So far, South Africa and local investors have benefited from heightened uncertainty, as the prices of safe-haven assets like gold and platinum group metals have surged over the past year.<\/p>\n

This has benefited South Africa\u2019s commodity-heavy economy by boosting its trade balance, the rand and the JSE as mining giants listed on the exchange surged in 2025.<\/p>\n

The JSE All Share Index is up nearly 40% over the past year, driven by the commodity boom that is still ongoing, despite a recent fleeting sell-off in precious metals.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/span> Follow Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for South Africa, with the country\u2019s reform efforts bearing fruit and putting it on track to achieve 2% growth in the coming years. However, if reforms stall and political instability returns, the country risks slipping back into weak growth and undoing the gains […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":95370,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[275],"class_list":["post-95371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nMake or break for South Africa - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for South Africa, with the country\u2019s reform efforts bearing fruit and putting it ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Make or break for South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for South Africa, with the country\u2019s reform efforts bearing fruit and putting it ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-05T11:17:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-05T11:33:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2026\/02\/sm_1770278195.212405.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Make or break for South Africa\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-05T11:17:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-05T11:33:37+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa\"},\"wordCount\":702,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2026\/02\/sm_1770278195.212405.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/make-or-break-for-south-africa\",\"name\":\"Make or break for South Africa - 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