{"id":97524,"date":"2026-04-19T14:16:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T14:16:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices"},"modified":"2026-04-19T14:40:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T14:40:59","slug":"south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices","title":{"rendered":"South Africans Must Adapt to Rising Fuel Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff6600\"><strong>Africa-Press &#8211; South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>Even if the Middle East war ends soon, South Africans should likely not expect a return to pre-war levels for fuel prices this year.<\/p>\n<p>This is because, beyond the supply constraints stemming from the conflict, the disruption has introduced a higher risk premium for crude oil and refined product markets.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, the fuel tax relief the government introduced in April and, potentially, May will add upside risk to prices in South Africa, which could offset the relief from lower global prices at the pump.<\/p>\n<p>This was explained by the Bureau for Economic Research\u2019s Tracey-Lee Solomon, who recently explained how the US\/Israel-Iran war has influenced fuel prices in South Africa.<\/p>\n<p>Solomon said that since the outbreak of the conflict, global fuel prices have risen sharply due to supply disruptions, stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and higher refined product prices.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile crude oil is the underlying input, the more relevant driver for South Africa is the price of refined petroleum products, which has increased more significantly due to constraints in both production and logistics,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>Solomon explained that, because South Africa imports the vast majority of its fuel, the country is highly vulnerable to changes in global prices for oil and refined fuel products.<\/p>\n<p>While fuel prices in South Africa are regulated, they consist of multiple components that can vary based on both domestic and international developments.<\/p>\n<p>The components that make up the price South Africans pay at the pumps include the basic fuel price (BFP), fuel taxes, and wholesale and retail margins.<\/p>\n<p>The Middle East war has mainly affected the BFP, which is adjusted monthly and reflects the rand-denominated cost of importing refined fuel.<\/p>\n<p>This cost is, in turn, determined by two factors \u2013 international refined petroleum product prices and the rand exchange rate.<\/p>\n<p>When the Central Energy Fund (CEF) releases its data on diesel and petrol price under- or over-recoveries, these are the two elements it takes into account.<\/p>\n<p>The graphic below, courtesy of the Bureau for Economic Research, shows the components that make up the price South African motorists pay at the pump.<\/p>\n<p><b>No relief anytime soon<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Solomon explained that an under-recovery reflects the gap between the regulated pump price and the higher rand-denominated cost of importing fuel during the month.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBecause fuel prices are adjusted only once a month, these losses are not passed through to consumers immediately but are recovered the following month,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCurrent under-recoveries, therefore, point to significant increases in May.\u201d The CEF currently forecasts under-recoveries of approximately R2.80 per litre for petrol and R8.50 per litre for diesel.<\/p>\n<p>South Africa, therefore, has no control over the BFP. However, the other major component of fuel prices at the pump \u2013 fuel taxes \u2013 is within the government\u2019s control.<\/p>\n<p>This is why the National Treasury announced a temporary R3 per litre reduction in the fuel levy for April to provide some relief to South African motorists.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFrom a pricing perspective, the levy operates independently of the BFP. This means that even if international product prices stabilise or decline, the removal of the levy relief could offset any potential relief at the pump,\u201d Solomon explained.<\/p>\n<p>However, even with this relief, and even if the Middle East conflict ends within the next few months, Solomon said fuel prices are unlikely to come down soon.<\/p>\n<p>She explained that even if crude oil prices ease, refined product prices are unlikely to adjust as quickly.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe current environment reflects both supply and logistical constraints: damage to refining infrastructure, shipping backlogs and delays, limited storage capacity and curtailed crude production due to bottlenecks,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn addition, refineries that rely on imported crude face feedstock constraints until supply chains normalise. This means that the pass-through from lower crude prices to pump prices will be delayed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, Solomon said a near-term return to pre-war fuel price levels this year appears unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBeyond current supply constraints, the disruption has introduced a persistent risk premium in both crude oil and refined product markets,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDomestically, the eventual withdrawal of the temporary fuel levy relief will also act as an upside risk to prices. Even if international product prices decline, this could offset any relief at the pump.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>For More News And Analysis About <span style=\"color: #ff6600\">South-Africa<\/span> Follow <span style=\"color: #ff6600\">Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Africa-Press &#8211; South-Africa. Even if the Middle East war ends soon, South Africans should likely not expect a return to pre-war levels for fuel prices this year. This is because, beyond the supply constraints stemming from the conflict, the disruption has introduced a higher risk premium for crude oil and refined product markets. In addition, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":97522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5,7,12],"tags":[275],"class_list":["post-97524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","category-head-lines","category-policy","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.1 (Yoast SEO v27.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>South Africans Must Adapt to Rising Fuel Prices - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Even if the Middle East war ends soon, South Africans should likely not expect a return to pre-war levels for fuel price ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Africans Must Adapt to Rising Fuel Prices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Even if the Middle East war ends soon, South Africans should likely not expect a return to pre-war levels for fuel price ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-19T14:16:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-19T14:40:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2026\/04\/sm_1776596997.313082.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"South Africans Must Adapt to Rising Fuel Prices\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-19T14:16:12+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-19T14:40:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices\"},\"wordCount\":720,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2026\/04\/sm_1776596997.313082.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\",\"head lines\",\"policy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/south-africans-must-adapt-to-rising-fuel-prices\",\"name\":\"South Africans Must Adapt to Rising Fuel Prices - 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