{"id":97611,"date":"2026-04-21T14:59:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:59:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3"},"modified":"2026-04-21T15:21:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T15:21:19","slug":"dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3","title":{"rendered":"Dark Clouds Gather Over South Africa’s Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. <\/strong><\/span>South Africa\u2019s economic outlook seemed quite positive at the start of 2026, but now the country\u2019s future looks increasingly uncertain.<\/p>\n

The conflict in the Middle East has threatened to completely overturn the country\u2019s economic recovery and grind its growth to a halt.<\/p>\n

This is according to PayInc\u2019s Economic Index report for March 2026, which tracked all electronic payments made on its platform over the month.<\/p>\n

The Index reported an increase of 0.9% month-on-month in March, and is currently sitting at an index level of 104.7. This is 4.6% higher than where the index was around this time last year.<\/p>\n

While this upward momentum gives a general indication of improving economic performance across South Africa, PayInc said this is likely to be short-lived.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough March\u2019s strong economic performance is heartening, it is likely to be the calm before the storm,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe war between the US and Israel against Iran that started on 28 February 2026 is still ongoing and has abruptly disrupted the economic scenario envisaged for South Africa and the globe.\u201d<\/p>\n

The impact of the war and the subsequent closing of the Strait of Hormuz on global oil trade is a significant factor in the country\u2019s downturned economic prospects.<\/p>\n

The 1 April fuel price increase of R3.06 per litre for petrol and R7.37 per litre for diesel is the highest single-month price increase South Africa has ever seen.<\/p>\n

While the R3 fuel levy cut cushioned the blow somewhat, this is likely only temporary, and PayInc expects at least two more months of price increases if the war does not end soon.<\/p>\n

Higher fuel prices are already affecting transport companies and airlines across the country, and are projected to lead to an increase in the general price of goods as well.<\/p>\n

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth outlook for South Africa down to just 1% in 2026, a cut of 0.4 percentage points.<\/p>\n

This puts it below the 1.1% economic growth achieved by the country in 2025, with the IMF explaining that the war will likely have a negative impact on inflation across the globe.<\/p>\n

Economic recovery remains fragile<\/b><\/p>\n

Independent economist Elize Kruger<\/p>\n

PayInc\u2019s findings and the IMF\u2019s ruling expose the underlying vulnerability that defines South Africa\u2019s road to economic improvement.<\/p>\n

The Centre for Risk Analysis has said that South Africa\u2019s growth has relied on higher economic sentiment and increases in consumer spending.<\/p>\n

With inflation projected to rise as a result of the war, consumer spending is likely to decrease in the coming months, slowing the country\u2019s growth.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, long-term drivers of economic growth, such as fixed investment and higher business confidence, have similarly contracted in recent years.<\/p>\n

Speaking to 702, independent economist Elize Kruger said March\u2019s Economic Index report is likely to be the country\u2019s last indication of positive growth for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

\u201cMarch\u2019s numbers are still good,\u201d Kruger said. \u201cIt shows the tailwinds that have been supporting the economy were still prevalent in quarter one. But unfortunately, from April onwards, the scenario has changed abruptly.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kruger said South African companies will not be able to keep absorbing the increased fuel prices, meaning they will need to recoup higher transport costs further down the supply chain.<\/p>\n

Agricultural organisations across the country have warned that spikes in the prices of fuel and fertiliser will likely lead to higher food prices in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Kruger explained that the uncertainty surrounding the war\u2019s duration could also lead to a potential loss of jobs across multiple economic sectors.<\/p>\n

\u201cCompanies typically go into \u2018conservative mode\u2019 in these highly uncertain environments, not knowing how long this scenario will play out or what the final economic impact will be,\u201d Kruger said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey will not make decisions about investments if they can postpone it, and they will typically not appoint people if they are uncertain about the prospects.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a separate interview with Newzroom Afrika, Kruger said a best-case scenario, in which there is a short-term conclusion of the Middle East conflict, could see the country recover relatively quickly.<\/p>\n

However, she said this would only come after a round of price increases across the economy, as the current hikes are too large to be absorbed by companies.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a case to be made that we won\u2019t go back to where the oil price was before the conflict started,\u201d Kruger said. \u201cI think we\u2019re going to be left with higher oil prices for longer than we anticipated.\u201d<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Africa<\/span> Follow Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Africa. South Africa\u2019s economic outlook seemed quite positive at the start of 2026, but now the country\u2019s future looks increasingly uncertain. The conflict in the Middle East has threatened to completely overturn the country\u2019s economic recovery and grind its growth to a halt. This is according to PayInc\u2019s Economic Index report for March […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":97610,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[275],"class_list":["post-97611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"\nDark Clouds Gather Over South Africa's Economy - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"South Africa\u2019s economic outlook seemed quite positive at the start of 2026, but now the country\u2019s future looks increasin ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dark Clouds Gather Over South Africa's Economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Africa\u2019s economic outlook seemed quite positive at the start of 2026, but now the country\u2019s future looks increasin ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"South Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-21T14:59:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-21T15:21:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2026\/04\/sm_1776772223.56925.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Dark Clouds Gather Over South Africa’s Economy\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-21T14:59:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-21T15:21:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3\"},\"wordCount\":766,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/sites\/31\/2026\/04\/sm_1776772223.56925.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"South-Africa\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/dark-clouds-gather-over-south-africas-economy-3\",\"name\":\"Dark Clouds Gather Over South Africa's Economy - 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