{"id":4152,"date":"2021-11-12T08:06:51","date_gmt":"2021-11-12T08:06:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-sudan\/all-news\/is-ethiopias-government-about-to-fall"},"modified":"2021-11-12T09:30:58","modified_gmt":"2021-11-12T09:30:58","slug":"is-ethiopias-government-about-to-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-sudan\/all-news\/is-ethiopias-government-about-to-fall","title":{"rendered":"Is Ethiopia\u2019s government about to fall?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Sudan. <\/strong><\/span>Ethiopia\u2019s civil war has now reached a crucial moment. Anti-government forces are approaching Addis Ababa, the country\u2019s capital, and look set to take control there very soon. \u201cThe important question,\u201d warns Connor Vasey, Ethiopia analyst at Eurasia Group, \u201cis on what terms they would do so: with the prime minister and his government conceding or with their violent removal.\u201d<\/p>\n

The background: In 2018, Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia\u2019s prime minister, ending 30 years of rule by power brokers from the Tigrayan ethnic group. His pledge to bring Ethiopians of all ethnicities together, to build a modern national identity for his country, and his decision to end the country\u2019s long war with Eritrea won him the 2019 Nobel Prize.<\/p>\n

But anti-government violence in the Tigray region, home to about six million of Ethiopia\u2019s 115 million people, pitted Abiy\u2019s government against the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had won power in local elections that Abiy\u2019s government refused to recognize.<\/p>\n

In November 2020, Abiy launched an assault on TPLF forces, and the fighting that followed killed thousands of people and has driven more than two million from their homes. The UN says all sides in this conflict have committed atrocities, including rape and the murder of civilians.<\/p>\n

By July 2021, the bloodshed had spilled over into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, and in August, Abiy called for \u201call capable Ethiopians\u201d to take up arms to defend themselves against the rebel forces. This only encouraged opposition fighters to believe the government lacked confidence in its own military. The TPLF then teamed up with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), capable militants who fight in the name of Ethiopia\u2019s largest ethnic group. The OLA has already consolidated major territorial gains in the Oromia region, which surrounds the capital.<\/p>\n

This Tigray-Oromo alliance is now demanding Abiy\u2019s surrender or ouster, and it insists that government officials must be charged with war crimes. On November 4, Ethiopia\u2019s parliament declared a state of national emergency.<\/p>\n

The United States is now trying to broker a ceasefire to avoid a battle inside the capital. The problem, says Eurasia Group\u2019s Vasey, is that \u201cboth sides know talks are necessary to avoid further bloodshed and disruption but are stuck on the belief they can beat the other side into irrelevance before negotiations begin.\u201d<\/p>\n

What happens next will matter for decades. A diplomatic deal would save lives, limit the number of refugees seeking sanctuary, and protect Ethiopia\u2019s economy \u2014 one of Africa\u2019s strongest \u2014 from potentially catastrophic and lasting damage. But even a deal could quickly unravel, as victorious forces fight over spoils and seek revenge against rivals.<\/p>\n

A violent overthrow of the government, on the other hand, \u201cis clearly the worst outcome for Ethiopia,\u201d warns Vasey, \u201cbecause there is no government-in-waiting with nationwide legitimacy that can manage the political, economic, and human fallout.\u201d<\/p>\n

A vacuum of power in the capital would paralyze Ethiopia\u2019s government and create economic upheaval in every region of the country. That, in turn, could multiply the number of refugees seeking sanctuary. In fact, neighboring Kenya has already tightened its 500-mile border with Ethiopia.<\/p>\n

Paralysis in Addis would also prevent the Ethiopian government from playing its important role as a peace-broker in South Sudan and a bulwark against terrorist groups across East Africa.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, that worst-case scenario \u2014 a violent overthrow of Abiy\u2019s government \u2014 looks all too likely at the moment, because a prime minister and government officials facing the prospect of war crimes charges don\u2019t have much incentive to stand down their soldiers. \u201cWe will sacrifice our blood and bone to bury this enemy and uphold Ethiopia\u2019s dignity and flag,\u201d Abiy declared this week.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About South-Sudan<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – South-Sudan. Ethiopia\u2019s civil war has now reached a crucial moment. Anti-government forces are approaching Addis Ababa, the country\u2019s capital, and look set to take control there very soon. \u201cThe important question,\u201d warns Connor Vasey, Ethiopia analyst at Eurasia Group, \u201cis on what terms they would do so: with the prime minister and his […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":4151,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[234,265,393,469,233],"class_list":["post-4152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-sudan","tag-ethiopia","tag-government","tag-south-sudan"],"yoast_head":"\nIs Ethiopia\u2019s government about to fall? - South Sudan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ethiopia\u2019s civil war has now reached a crucial moment. 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