Africa-Press – Tanzania. AS the country lays out its long-term economic blueprint toward Vision 2050, lawmakers are sending a clear message: Ambition alone will not deliver transformation.
Sustained high growth, disciplined execution and a sharper focus on productive sectors will determine whether the country’s aspiration of becoming a onetrillion-dollar economy remains credible or slips out of reach.
That message emerged strongly during parliamentary debates on the Long-Term National Development Plan (2026/27–2050/51), the Fourth Five-Year National Development Plan (FYDP IV) for 2026/27–2030/31 and the proposed National Development Plan for the 2026/27 fiscal year.
While MPs broadly endorsed the direction of Vision 2050, the debate revealed growing concern about the pace of implementation and the scale of effort required to meet its economic targets.
At the centre of the discussion was growth. Musoma Rural MP, Professor Sospeter Muhongo (CCM), argued that the country’s economic trajectory must shift decisively if Vision 2050 is to succeed.
“If the economy fails to reach growth of 10 per cent or more, achieving a one-trillion-dollar economy will face serious obstacles,” Prof Muhongo told Parliament. For Prof Muhongo, growth is not an abstract macroeconomic figure but the outcome of deliberate sectoral choices.
He called for clear contribution benchmarks across six strategic sectors that he believes should anchor GDP expansion.
Agriculture, he said, should account for at least 35 per cent of GDP, followed by oil and gas at 25 per cent, minerals at 20 per cent and tourism at 15 per cent. Livestock and fisheries would contribute 3 per cent, while sports, arts and culture would add 2 per cent.
“If we don’t reach these targets, achieving a one-trillion-dollar economy will be impossible,” he said.
The emphasis on sector discipline reflects a broader concern among lawmakers that the economy risks spreading effort too thinly. Instead, MPs argued for deeper investment, value addition and revenue capture in areas where the country holds clear comparative advantages.
A recurring theme in the debate was the management of natural resource wealth. Prof Muhongo urged the government to move beyond extraction and exports toward long-term capital accumulation through Sovereign Wealth Funds.
He specifically called for the establishment of a Natural Gas Sovereign Wealth Fund, noting that the country is positioned to benefit from an estimated 57 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, particularly through the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project planned for the Lindi Region.
He also recommended expanding exploration in the Ruvuma Basin, which he said could hold gas reserves exceeding 100 trillion cubic feet. Mining, he argued, presents similar opportunities if managed strategically. Prof Muhongo proposed a Minerals Wealth Fund to capture value from gold and other minerals at a time of strong global prices.
“Gold is currently trading at 5,000 US dollars per ounce globally. We must take advantage of what we have,” he said.
He also highlighted the persistent gap between resource ownership and export earnings in the Tanzanite industry. “We also have Tanzanite, unique to the country, but India leads in exports, earning 80 million US dollars last year, compared to our 19.2 million US dollars,” he noted.
Beyond traditional commodities, lawmakers pointed to the growing importance of technology and critical minerals. Prof Muhongo cited graphite and helium gas, with helium reserves estimated at more than 170 billion cubic feet, as emerging assets that could support industrial growth and export diversification if properly developed. Human capital also featured prominently in the discussion.
Prof Muhongo argued that remittances remain an underutilised source of foreign exchange and growth.
“We must export our human capital to fully benefit from the diaspora. Currently, labour export is very low compared to other countries,” Prof Muhongo said.
He further urged policymakers to consider elements of state capitalism, citing China’s experience with large, commercially driven state-owned enterprises.
“We need to establish companies that heavily invest in minerals, gas, tourism and energy,” he proposed.
Energy, lawmakers agreed, will ultimately determine whether growth targets are achievable. Tarime Urban MP, Ms Esther Matiko (CCM), expressed concern that while long-term energy ambitions are bold, execution on the ground remains slow.
She noted that the plan targets electricity generation capacity of 70,000 megawatts by 2050/51 but warned that current projects are not progressing fast enough to support industrialisation.
Ms Matiko stressed the importance of accelerating strategic investments such as Mchuchuma and Liganga, Ruhudji Hydropower, Singida Wind Power and geothermal projects. She also called for stronger private sector participation in power generation and distribution to complement public investment.
Beyond energy, she proposed conducting a Regional Potential Assessment to better align local resources with national growth objectives, arguing that economic transformation must be grounded in regional comparative advantages. She added that tourism remains underexploited despite the country’s natural and cultural assets.
These concerns come as FYDP IV positions itself as the foundation phase of Vision 2050. By 2031, the country aims to reach a nominal GDP of 118 billion US dollars, achieve real GDP growth of 10.5 per cent and raise GDP per capita to 1,638 US dollars.
According to the Chairperson of the Parliamentary Budget Committee, Mr Mashimba Ndaki, delivering these outcomes will depend on structural reforms rather than spending alone.
He pointed to the need to improve the business and investment climate, expand access to affordable and reliable energy, strengthen transport and logistics, accelerate digital transformation and build a skilled, ethical and accountable workforce.
The plan also seeks to reduce extreme poverty from 8 per cent to 5 per cent by 2030/31, alongside improvements in health and education outcomes. Flagship projects such as the Bagamoyo Eco-Marine City, the Lindi LNG Project, the Mchuchuma and Liganga Minerals Project, the Technology and Critical Minerals Innovation Hub in Dodoma and the Great Lakes Blue Economy are expected to anchor this transition.
For lawmakers, however, the message is clear: Vision 2050 will ultimately be judged not by the scale of its ambition, but by the country’s ability to convert plans, projects and resources into sustained high growth and broadbased prosperity.
Source: Daily News – Tanzania Standard Newspapers
