{"id":46778,"date":"2026-01-06T17:15:50","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T17:15:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/togo\/politique\/moscou-ne-protegera-pas-laes-comme-caracas"},"modified":"2026-01-06T17:49:57","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T17:49:57","slug":"moscou-ne-protegera-pas-laes-comme-caracas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/togo\/dossiers\/moscou-ne-protegera-pas-laes-comme-caracas","title":{"rendered":"Moscou Ne Prot\u00e9gera Pas L’AES Comme Caracas"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Togo. <\/strong> <\/span>Le pre\u0301ce\u0301dent Maduro: avertissement brutal pour l\u2019AES<\/p>\n

Il faut arre\u0302ter de se raconter des histoires.<\/p>\n

La ge\u0301opolitique n\u2019est pas un conte africain ou\u0300 les puissances e\u0301trange\u0300res deviennent des oncles protecteurs.<\/p>\n

La ge\u0301opolitique est une me\u0301canique froide, brutale, indiffe\u0301rente aux illusions des peuples.<\/p>\n

Et dans cette me\u0301canique, le cas Maduro n\u2019est pas un e\u0301pisode latino\u2010ame\u0301ricain:<\/p>\n

c\u2019est un signal d\u2019alarme qui hurle en direction du Sahel.<\/p>\n

Si Moscou n\u2019a pas prote\u0301ge\u0301 Caracas, elle ne prote\u0301gera pas l\u2019AES.<\/p>\n

Point final.<\/p>\n

Tout le reste est rhe\u0301torique.<\/p>\n

1. Le Venezuela: la preuve que les \u201calliances\u201d ne prote\u0300gent pas<\/p>\n

Pendant vingt ans, Caracas a cru e\u0302tre sous un bouclier.<\/p>\n

On a vu des photos, des poigne\u0301es de main, des discours de fraternite\u0301 strate\u0301gique.<\/p>\n

On a vu des avions, des conseillers, des syste\u0300mes d\u2019armes.<\/p>\n

On a vu l\u2019apparence de la protection.<\/p>\n

Mais le jour ou\u0300 Washington a de\u0301cide\u0301 d\u2019agir,<\/p>\n

le bouclier s\u2019est e\u0301vapore\u0301.<\/p>\n

Pas un soldat russe.<\/p>\n

Pas un navire.<\/p>\n

Pas un geste qui change le rapport de force.<\/p>\n

La Russie a parle\u0301.<\/p>\n

Elle n\u2019a pas prote\u0301ge\u0301.<\/p>\n

Voila\u0300 la ve\u0301rite\u0301 nue.<\/p>\n

Voila\u0300 la ve\u0301rite\u0301 que personne ne veut regarder en face.<\/p>\n

2. L\u2019AES: un autre de\u0301cor, la me\u0302me loi<\/p>\n

Le Sahel croit parfois avoir trouve\u0301 un nouveau parrain.<\/p>\n

Un parrain plus lointain, plus discret, plus flatteur.<\/p>\n

Un parrain qui parle de souverainete\u0301, de dignite\u0301, de partenariat d\u2019e\u0301gal a\u0300 e\u0301gal.<\/p>\n

Mais la Russie n\u2019est pas un parrain.<\/p>\n

La Russie est une puissance.<\/p>\n

Et une puissance ne prote\u0300ge jamais gratuitement.<\/p>\n

Jamais jusqu\u2019au bout.<\/p>\n

Jamais contre un adversaire plus fort qu\u2019elle sur un the\u0301a\u0302tre secondaire.<\/p>\n

Le Sahel n\u2019est pas un enjeu vital pour Moscou.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est un terrain d\u2019opportunite\u0301.<\/p>\n

Un espace ou\u0300 l\u2019on avance parce que d\u2019autres reculent.<\/p>\n

Un espace ou\u0300 l\u2019on s\u2019installe parce que cela cou\u0302te peu et rapporte beaucoup.<\/p>\n

Mais un espace pour lequel on ne meurt pas.<\/p>\n

3. La loi des puissances: personne ne meurt pour vous<\/p>\n

Il faut dire les choses sans anesthe\u0301sie:<\/p>\n

a) La Russie n\u2019a pas la capacite\u0301 de projeter une arme\u0301e pour de\u0301fendre l\u2019AES<\/p>\n

Elle peut envoyer des instructeurs.<\/p>\n

Elle ne peut pas affronter une coalition occidentale a\u0300 5 000 km de Moscou.<\/p>\n

b) Le Sahel n\u2019est pas un front existentiel pour Moscou<\/p>\n

C\u2019est un dossier.<\/p>\n

Pas une priorite\u0301.<\/p>\n

Encore moins une ligne rouge.<\/p>\n

c) Aucun empire ne sacrifie son sang pour un partenaire pe\u0301riphe\u0301rique<\/p>\n

Ni hier.<\/p>\n

Ni aujourd\u2019hui.<\/p>\n

Ni demain.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est une loi.<\/p>\n

Et les lois ne se ne\u0301gocient pas.<\/p>\n

4. L\u2019AES n\u2019a qu\u2019une seule voie: exister par elle\u2010me\u0302me<\/p>\n

La survie de l\u2019AES ne de\u0301pend pas d\u2019un protecteur.<\/p>\n

Elle de\u0301pend d\u2019une architecture interne solide, cohe\u0301rente, assume\u0301e:<\/p>\n

\u2022 se\u0301curiser le territoire,<\/p>\n

\u2022 construire une le\u0301gitimite\u0301 qui ne repose pas sur la cole\u0300re mais sur un projet,<\/p>\n

\u2022 diversifier les alliances sans se livrer a\u0300 une nouvelle de\u0301pendance,<\/p>\n

\u2022 comprendre que la souverainete\u0301 n\u2019est pas un slogan mais une discipline.<\/p>\n

La Russie peut aider.<\/p>\n

Elle ne sauvera pas.<\/p>\n

La France peut partir.<\/p>\n

Elle ne reviendra pas prote\u0301ger.<\/p>\n

Les E\u0301tats\u2010Unis peuvent surveiller.<\/p>\n

Ils n\u2019interviendront pas pour stabiliser.<\/p>\n

L\u2019AES n\u2019a que l\u2019AES.<\/p>\n

5. Le pre\u0301ce\u0301dent Maduro: miroir impitoyable<\/p>\n

Le cas Maduro n\u2019est pas un accident.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est un miroir.<\/p>\n

Un miroir qui dit au Sahel:<\/p>\n

Ne confondez jamais soutien et protection.<\/p>\n

Ne confondez jamais coope\u0301ration et garantie.<\/p>\n

Ne confondez jamais un partenaire et un tuteur.<\/p>\n

Si l\u2019AES veut durer,<\/p>\n

elle devra apprendre a\u0300 tenir debout sans be\u0301quille e\u0301trange\u0300re.<\/p>\n

Elle devra apprendre a\u0300 dire non sans attendre qu\u2019un empire dise oui.<\/p>\n

Elle devra apprendre que la souverainete\u0301 n\u2019est pas un cadeau:<\/p>\n

c\u2019est une conque\u0302te.<\/p>\n

Et une conque\u0302te ne se de\u0301le\u0300gue pas.<\/p>\n

Olivier Ble\u0301<\/p>\n

Retrouvez plus d\u2019actualit\u00e9s et d\u2019analyses sur Togo<\/span> sur le site Africa Press<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Togo. Le pre\u0301ce\u0301dent Maduro: avertissement brutal pour l\u2019AES Il faut arre\u0302ter de se raconter des histoires. La ge\u0301opolitique n\u2019est pas un conte africain ou\u0300 les puissances e\u0301trange\u0300res deviennent des oncles protecteurs. La ge\u0301opolitique est une me\u0301canique froide, brutale, indiffe\u0301rente aux illusions des peuples. Et dans cette me\u0301canique, le cas Maduro n\u2019est pas un […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":46777,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,10],"tags":[2945,50],"class_list":["post-46778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dossiers","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-aes","tag-togo"],"yoast_head":"\nMoscou Ne Prot\u00e9gera Pas L'AES Comme Caracas - Togo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"-article-header-tag"> Africa-Press - Togo. 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