writes Hany Besada and Cristina D’Alessandro
Africa-Press – Uganda. Africa has a golden opportunity to benefit from both the green transition and the US-China rivalry. Both give the continent leverage to sell its resources in a way that benefits itself.
As Washington and Beijing intensify their rivalry, Africa has emerged as one of the most important arenas in the global contest for critical minerals. From the cobalt and lithium needed to power electric vehicles, to rare earth minerals essential for semiconductors, the continent’s resources are at the heart of the energy transition and the technologies shaping the 21st century. The question facing African leaders is not just whether there is a market for their minerals, but whether they can turn this rush for resources into lasting development gains.
Africa’s mineral wealth and its global value
Africa is home to extraordinary mineral reserves that the world cannot afford to ignore. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) produces approximately 74 per cent of global cobalt. while Guinea’s bauxite reserves make it a key player in aluminium production. South Africa dominates in platinum-group metals, Namibia in uranium, and Mozambique and Madagascar in graphite. In fact, the US Geological Survey lists 50 minerals as critical to national security, and 32 of them are found in Africa.
This abundance places African states at the centre of efforts to diversify supply chains away from China, which today commands overwhelming control over mineral processing. China mines about 69 percent of rare earth elements, processes 90 percent of them, and manufactures over 90 per cent of rare earth magnets. For countries like the US, which seeks to secure supply chains for its green industries and defence technologies, African partnerships have never been more strategic.
Tariffs, subsidies, and strategic framing
The US has sought to counter China’s dominance by deploying a mix of tariffs, subsidies, and trade investigations. Under Section 232 of US trade law, Washington has reviewed imports of critical minerals and imposed tariffs on materials such as aluminium and steel. While these moves are framed as protecting domestic suppliers, they also signal a broader effort to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled processing chains.
Yet the results are mixed. Broader tariff interventions have created volatility in commodity markets, with copper prices in particular experiencing sharp swings. At the same time, the US remains dependent on Chinese processing, just as China relies on US semiconductor technology. This uneasy interdependence has so far prevented a full-scale decoupling. Still, Washington is framing critical minerals as matters of national security, with hundreds of millions of dollars pledged to domestic producers like MP Materials and new partnerships pursued in Africa, from Zambia to Angola.
How African countries are responding
African governments are not simply passive actors in this rivalry; they are making strategic moves of their own. Some, like members of the Alliance of Sahel States, are renegotiating mining contracts or even nationalising assets to secure greater control over revenues. Others are carefully managing their exposure to tariffs. For example, recent US tariffs have largely spared African exports of platinum-group metals, coal, and gold, underscoring Washington’s need for reliable supplies.
But risks remain. Countries heavily dependent on US markets are vulnerable to sudden policy shifts by the current administration, while China continues to entrench its presence on the continent through infrastructure-for-minerals deals. In the DRC, Chinese companies control more than 70 per cent of cobalt production, underpinned by massive projects such as Sicomines. In Guinea, there is China’s State Power Investment Corporation. To lock in long-term access, Beijing has eliminated tariffs on exports from 53 African countries.
New alliances and diversification strategies
While the rivalry creates risks, it also opens space for African governments to explore new forms of cooperation. One promising example is the 2022 US–DRC–Zambia memorandum of understanding on electric vehicle battery value chains, which emphasises value addition within Africa rather than just raw exports. Similar frameworks are being promoted by think tanks such as Brookings and CSIS, highlighting the need for investment in processing capacity.
At the same time, new supply routes and partnerships are emerging. The Lobito Corridor — a US–EU–African initiative to develop rail and port infrastructure linking Zambia and the DRC to Angola’s Atlantic coast — aims to facilitate mineral exports while strengthening regional integration. Elsewhere, Kenya has struck rare earth deals with Australian firms while Zambia has partnered with a UK-based company on green copper mining with US grant support.
These projects are part of a broader push to diversify supply chains beyond China. Analysts argue that China’s near monopoly in this sector will require not only political will in the West but also genuine partnerships with emerging producers in Africa and Latin America. For African states, this represents an opportunity to negotiate better terms and to demand investment in local value addition.
Towards an African-led mineral future
The choices African governments make today will determine whether the continent becomes a battleground for external powers or a strategic partner shaping global supply chains. Policies that prioritise local processing, job creation, and environmental safeguards can help ensure that resource wealth translates into long-term development. Regional frameworks, such as the African Mining Vision, already offer a roadmap for moving from raw commodity exports toward industrialisation.
But seizing this opportunity requires strong institutions and coherent policies. Transparent contracts, fair revenue-sharing arrangements, and consistency in tariff regimes will be essential. Equally important will be the ability to balance relationships with both Washington and Beijing while leveraging triangular cooperation with European and multilateral partners.
As the US and China seek to secure their technological and industrial futures, Africa is no longer on the margins of global trade debates. It is at the centre. The continent’s mineral wealth can either reinforce dependency or become the foundation for a more sovereign, diversified, and resilient economic future. The stakes are high: whether African nations can turn today’s competition into tomorrow’s opportunity will shape not just their development paths but also the trajectory of the global economy.
LSE
For More News And Analysis About Uganda Follow Africa-Press
