Africa-Press – Zambia. Who will win Kabwata bye-election? The Kabwata Parliamentary bye-election scheduled for 20th January 2022 is already causing a lot of excitement especially from the opposition ranks. But is it possible to try and predict the outcome of what is likely to be a highly contested poll? Here are some issues that may affect this bye-election;
1. Incumbency
By-elections tend to favour the ruling party for various reasons such as campaign resources and voters’ view that the outcome wouldn’t cause meaningful change and so voters opting to give the ruling party the benefit of the doubt. Although UPND is unlikely to abuse incumbency to the extent that PF did, they are still likely to benefit.
2. Stronghold
Whose stronghold is Kabwata between PF and UPND? PF held the seat for 15 years and UPND for 5 years before PF with the same MP Given Lubinda (under both parties) . Both parties have viable structures and presence in the constituency. Given this, it would be difficult to tell whose turf the constituency is. But we have to consider the fact that PF lost the seat by 28, 000. This is a huge flip looking at the fact that they previously held the seat. This shows that the former ruling party is much weakened in the constituency. This is more so that the UPND won the constituency with apparently very little effort and was virtually invisible (even SP was more visible than UPND).
3. The issues
For this to work for the opposition, the voters must really be feed up and bent on sending a message to the ruling party. In short, there must be general discontent. But there are really not many issues at this stage save the recent increase in fuel prices (and probably local govt minister Nkombo’s eyebrow raising stirring of the bees who are the street vendors). The extent to which the increase in fuel prices will effect the poll will depend on how wide-spread the price escalation will be by the time of the polls. So far this has only translated into a maximum of K2. 50 increase in bus fares. Also to what extent, in the voters’ view, is this increase mitigated by other New Dawn ‘positives’ such as 2022 budget, appreciation of the Kwacha, end of cadrerism, etc. Especially considering that its barely 130 days in a 5 year mandate.
4. Sympathy vote
Human nature dictates that the sympathy vote is likely to have a significant impact on the election. On this score, voters may allow the UPND to ‘replace’ Levy Mkandawire (MHSRIP) so that it continues with its programs for the constituency.
5. Vote splitting
It would appear that the race for Kabwata is between UPND and PF. However, should the other parties, DP, EEP, PeP, have some impact, they are likely to split votes from the PF. This conclusion is based on the fact that those likely to vote against the UPND are mostly those who voted against it in August this year. At this stage, it’s highly unlikely that most voters would have changed their minds.
6. Voter apathy
Voter apathy is likely to occur because, again, there isnt much to vote for in a bye-election. But this is likely to affect both sides in almost equal proportion.
7. The candidates
General elections are highly influenced by the presidential candidates. However, in a bye-election, this influence can be mitigated especially if there is a very strong candidate. I. e. strong party weak candidate and vice versa.
But as they say ‘anything is possible in politics’. Let us wait and see. See less Comments Enock Mwila Memories of the brutal PF regime are fresh lawlessness, violence, intimidation, corruption, insults, police brutality, tribalism
· Reply · 2h Francis Mukuka Once children report to school without fee on January 10, it will be difficult to challenge upnd
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