Africa-Press – Zambia. It began with whispers, speculation and gossip, that Zambia was losing global competitiveness of exports of copper to DRC. That speculation has transmogrified into reality. I’m no expert on copper production processes and quantities. Others are. On September 8, I read an article by Chimwemwe Mwanza, “DRC is now the continent’s biggest copper producing nation by volume.” And I’m sure there’re other experts and even national statistics confirming and converting the speculation into facts.
As my expertise is limited to global, regional and bilateral trade, I compliment Chimwemwe’s excellent revelation with what I know about the two countries’ competitive rivalry for continental hegemony in exports of the same. Using Unctadstat data, I confirm that DRC has overtaken Zambia in global exports of copper as shown in Figure 1 below. It’s simple logic: DRC is producing more, therefore, it is exporting more given that the product is produced largely for export.
A decade ago, Zambia led DRC in exports of copper to the world by wide absolute values. For example, when Zambia exported about $7 billion in 2014, shown in Figure 1 below, DRC exported less than $2 billion. The significant shift began in 2018 when DRC assumed control with Zambia trailing behind for the first time in the last fifteen years, the period I’m aware of. Why this happened is a question for new leaders to answer and reverse. We can mix with DRC but we must not forget about global and even regional competitiveness and why outcompeting others must be Zambia’s objective number one.
The main export markets for the two neighboring competitors are mainly Asia and Europe as shown in Table 1 below. In 2021, DRC exported copper worth $7.7 billion to Asia compared to Zambia’s $4.0 billion. While Europe continues to be Zambia’s key market, it is not for DRC. Equally, while Africa remains a significant market for DRC, for Zambia, it is not. Table 1: DRC/Zambia’s global export markets of copper in $millions DRC Zambia 10,066 8,233 1,611 272 208 30 7,702 4,093 546 3,838 Source: Unctadstat
The myth by many Zambians may be that Africa is the largest exporter of copper beating Chile. At school, I learnt about only Chile and Zambia as major producers and exporters. Even prior to writing this article, this week, my perception was the same as is for many Zambians who think that Zambia is one of the largest producers and exporters. Amazingly, statistics show unsung heroes like Asia, Europe and Americas shown in Figure 2 below with Africa at the bottom with only US$24 billion exports, largely coming from DRC and Zambia.
Indeed, the repeated song, “We have many natural resources to develop from, from within Zambia or Africa” is being challenged by these statistics showing strong competition of ownership of copper. The many countries in Asia producing copper make it competitively difficult for African countries like Zambia and DRC to impose policies to foreign investors. What happens when you impose and they go to Asia? Finally, one hopes that with improved policies and hard work, Zambia will soon recapture its hegemony in the production and export of copper from DRC. It’s mind-boggling to understand how Zambia surrendered its supremacy.
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