Africa-Press – Zambia. Economist Chibamba Kanyama has observed that the UPND administration’s current policy measures are not insufficient to fully bring about desired economic stability. Mr Kanyama stated that it will take not less than 36 months to really bring a sense of stability to the Zambian economy.
“Given where we are coming from, and the huge uncertainty around the restructuring of external debts, the current policy measures will be insufficient to fully bring about desired economic stability. We will experience some low lying fruits such as stability in inflation and marginal economic recovery but not much,” Mr Kanyama stated.
Hr said it takes time to rebuild an economy that had drifted to margins of insolvency. “What you will observe during this period are huge fluctuations in key macroeconomic variables (save for inflation that appears to have a good grip). The focus this year is to attend to the real economy (as assured by the President during the recent press conference).”
Mr. Kanyama observed that the private sector now has sufficient signals to commit resources into expanded production and new investments. “Once private sector (whose investment lead time is longer than generally expected) responds, we will begin to see stability. My reading of the situation is that we will only experience envisaged (real) growth levels (stable outputs in copper, agriculture, energy and other sectors) in 2024,” he said.
“This should be preceded by all creditors agreeing to the G20 Common Framework on debt restructuring. Despite IMF coming on board, the number one problem threatening stability is yet to be resolved. This is the debt and I am sure things are happening to ensure we conclude on this matter sooner than later.”
He added, “For now, we can only put our hands together as a country to resolve these legacy issues. We are also hoping for speedy solutions to geopolitical factors; sorting out of the USA economic challenges that have affected interest rates (leading to low portfolio foreign inflows to our domestic markets as investors seek for safer havens).”
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