By Brian Matambo
Africa-Press – Zambia. Dear Reader,
Kindly indulge me, for I wish to send a message that is not subtle; a blunt, mathematical, and unforgivingly clear message. The only way Zambia attains its second independence on 13 August 2026 is if and only if the opposition unites. Everything else is noise. Everything else is theatre. Everything else, whether intentional or not, works to the advantage of UPND.
This is not a slogan. It is a conclusion drawn from hard numbers, recent elections, and basic political logic.
For the last eight months, since the passing of former President Edgar Chagwa Lungu, this message has been loud and persistent across opposition spaces. Dr Edgar Lungu understood something many of these political leaders need to reflect on: disunity is not diversity. Fragmentation is not democracy. Ego is not a strategy. Dr Edgar Lungu worked, both openly as well as behind the scenes, to bring opposition forces together to confront tribalism, elitism, and pro-imperialist economic policies that punish the poor and hollow out households. That work was unfinished. We should be picking things up from there.
If we are to get Zambia back to pro-poor governance, people-centred development, and household-focused economic growth, it will not happen in an environment of acute opposition disunity. Please, this is not classroom ideology. This is real arithmetic data.
Now you may wish to know that I believe in data. Data has no emotions. It does not care about ambition, entitlement, or personal grievances. It only tells you what happens when votes are split and what happens when they are consolidated. The Chawama and Kasama by-elections offer lessons so clear that ignoring them can only be deliberate.
Let us begin with Chawama.
In that contest, UPND secured 6,542 votes, translating to 36.74 per cent. Every other candidate combined received 11,264 votes, or 63.26 per cent. That is not a narrow anti-incumbent sentiment. That is a clear majority. Yet the winning margin between the leading opposition candidate and UPND was just 1,543 votes. Harry Kalaba’s Citizens First party alone polled 1,534 votes. Nine votes short of the exact margin between FDD’s 8,085 and UPND’s 6,542.
This is not a theory. This is precision. Had that bloc moved differently, abstained, or been misdirected, the entire outcome would have been altered. That is how fragile, fragmented victories are, and that is how cheaply power is defended when the opposition refuses to coordinate.
Now consider Kasama.
In Kasama, UPND won with 17,647 votes, which is 41.11 per cent. Once again, the combined opposition vote stood at 24,378 votes, or 58.89 per cent. Nearly six out of every ten voters did not choose UPND. Yet UPND still carried the seat.
Why? Because the opposition arrived divided. The opposition did not learn anything from the Chawama numbers. In fact, I have seen opposition leaders getting even more emboldened by the Chawama victory, such that they seem to have missed the lesson.
Here is the key arithmetic. The leading opposition candidate under FDD polled 14,302 votes. The Citizens First party added 4,405 votes. Combined, that is 18,707 votes. That figure alone exceeds UPND’s 17,647 votes by 1,060. And that is before counting the additional 2,988 votes, 2,211 votes, and hundreds more scattered across smaller parties.
In plain language, Kasama was not lost because the opposition was unpopular. It was lost because the opposition refused to be singular.
This is where the illusion of solo runs collapses. When a candidate says they want to “test their strength,” the data tells us exactly what that test produces. It does not weaken the incumbent. It weakens the majority. It converts a numerical advantage into an electoral defeat. It turns a 59 per cent anti-incumbent electorate into a 41 per cent governing mandate.
Zambia’s electoral system rewards plurality. You need 50 per cent plus one to win the presidency, but you only need an ordinary majority to win parliamentary and ward elections, only one vote more than the next candidate. That single design feature turns disunity into a lethal weapon in the hands of an incumbent party. It allows a government to rule with minority support while the majority argues, campaigns separately, prints posters separately, and counts losses separately.
This is why the rebuke must now be stated without politeness. Any opposition actor who insists on contesting 2026 alone, with full knowledge of these numbers, is objectively working in favour of UPND. Motive is irrelevant. Intention is irrelevant. The mathematics does not negotiate. Fragmentation lowers the cost of victory for the incumbent. Unity raises the threshold beyond reach.
Unity does not mean uniformity. It does not mean ideological surrender. It does not mean the death of ambition. It means discipline.
It means sequencing. It means understanding that removing a failing system must come before personal coronations. It means grasping that history does not remember those who were correct in isolation, but those who were effective in coalition.
August 2026 is not a competition or tribe or personal egos. It is not a branding exercise. It is not an audition for political purity. It is a referendum on power, poverty, and the economic survival of households. And this second independence referendum will not be won by soloists. It will be won by coalitions that understand numbers and respect arithmetic.
Zambia’s second independence will not be gifted. It will be calculated, organised, defended, and protected vote by vote, polling station by polling station.
The data has already spoken.
The choice before the opposition is no longer philosophical. It is numerical.
Unite, or lose.
Source: The Zambian Observer – The Zambian Observer
For More News And Analysis About Zambia Follow Africa-Press
