Africa-Press – Zambia. With barely seven months before Zambia heads to the polls, the Patriotic Front has moved from legal uncertainty to political brinkmanship. The party’s Deputy Secretary General, Celestin Mukandila, has declared that PF will unveil its presidential flag bearer before the end of February “regardless of ongoing court proceedings,” framing the moment as a defence of democracy against alleged procedural delay.
“Democracy cannot be suspended by adjournments,” the statement reads. “We shall honour our word. We shall defend democracy. And we shall move forward, undeterred.”
The language is combative. The timing is strategic. The stakes are existential.
Behind the scenes, sources within PF structures suggest that Dr. Chishimba Kambwili has emerged as a strong contender to scoop the presidency at what many are calling an “odds-defying” convention. His unusual media silence in recent weeks has not gone unnoticed. In PF corridors and Lusaka lodges where provincial delegates are reportedly camped, the refrain is simple: the party needs a fighter.
Kambwili’s political résumé is formidable. A former Cabinet minister, seasoned parliamentarian and one of the most gifted political mobilisers of his generation, he commands loyalty particularly in the Copperbelt and parts of Northern and Muchinga provinces. His rhetorical force, ability to connect with grassroots voters and combative posture against the ruling UPND are seen by supporters as electoral assets.
But the calculus is more complicated.
Kambwili also carries baggage. His past conviction linked to tribal remarks during earlier campaigns remains part of the public record. In a country increasingly sensitive to tribal undertones in politics, that history could be weaponised by opponents. His brand is powerful but polarising. In urban middle-class and diaspora constituencies that value economic stability and institutional reform, perception matters.
Meanwhile, the opposition chessboard is shifting. Brian Mundubile has formally aligned with the Tonse Alliance, effectively deepening factional fractures within PF structures.
Makebi Zulu, once perceived as the standard bearer of the Edgar Lungu sympathy vote, appears to be losing momentum amid reports that efforts are underway to position him as Mundubile’s running mate rather than principal candidate. Given Lubinda remains a central figure but faces the delicate balance of preserving party unity while managing competing ambitions.
Regional dynamics also complicate the picture. Some Eastern Province traditional leaders are reportedly engaged in quiet negotiations aimed at consolidating influence within the opposition bloc. The PF vote base, historically concentrated in Eastern, Northern, Muchinga, Luapula and parts of the Copperbelt, is no longer monolithic.
By-elections since 2021 have shown gradual erosion in once-safe constituencies. The 2021 general election itself, decided by a margin of over one million votes, demonstrated that UPND with its reform message can overpower regional arithmetic.
If Kambwili emerges as PF’s flag bearer, the immediate question will not simply be whether he can consolidate the PF base. It will be whether he can expand beyond it.
President Hakainde Hichilema enters this election cycle with the advantages of incumbency, a stabilising macroeconomic narrative, debt restructuring progress and flagship policies such as free education and expanded CDF allocations. The ruling party’s messaging is anchored in economic recovery and institutional reform.
Any serious challenger must articulate not only critique but a credible alternative governance blueprint.
PF’s internal divisions risk diluting that alternative before it fully crystallises. The insistence on proceeding with a convention despite pending court judgments signals resolve, but it also raises concerns about legitimacy. A candidate chosen through a process later invalidated by the courts would begin the campaign under a legal cloud.
The broader opposition faces a strategic dilemma. Fragmentation benefits the incumbent. Consolidation requires sacrifice of ego and negotiation of hierarchy. As one senior political analyst privately observed, “Opposition politics in Zambia often collapses under the weight of ambition.”
Kambwili’s potential candidacy crystallises that tension. He embodies experience and mobilisation strength, yet he also symbolises the PF era that voters decisively rejected in 2021. Whether he can rebrand as a national unifier rather than a regional enforcer will determine his viability.
The coming days will test not only PF’s organisational capacity but its political maturity. Announcing a flag bearer is one thing. Presenting a candidate who can persuade swing voters, reassure markets, attract youth and withstand scrutiny is another.
Zambia’s 2026 election will not be won solely on nostalgia or rhetoric. It will turn on credibility, economic direction and trust in leadership.
PF stands at a crossroads. Its choice will define not only its future but the shape of Zambia’s political contest in the months ahead.
© The People’s Brief | Goran Handya & Chileshe Sengwe
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