{"id":4156,"date":"2021-08-11T20:16:54","date_gmt":"2021-08-11T20:16:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/zambia\/?p=4156"},"modified":"2021-08-11T20:15:56","modified_gmt":"2021-08-11T20:15:56","slug":"saying-lungu-will-win-is-not-blasphemy-upnd-and-dr-sishuwas-dangerous-election-expectation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/zambia\/all-news\/saying-lungu-will-win-is-not-blasphemy-upnd-and-dr-sishuwas-dangerous-election-expectation","title":{"rendered":"Saying Lungu Will Win is Not Blasphemy: UPND and Dr. Sishuwa\u2019s Dangerous Election Expectation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press<\/a> – Zambia<\/a>. <\/strong><\/span>To UPND cadres, questioning if HH will win this election is tantamount to doubting if Jesus is the Son of God. Such reasoning cannot only be considered undemocratic and unpatriotic, but also be deadly and dangerous. We may campaign for change, but we should be morally responsible to respect the dual outcome of democratic elections; it can go either way. Thus we shouldn\u2019t only expect or promote one outcome: a win for HH. It is akin to promoting post election violence.<\/p>\n

As a democracy, we entrust Zambians to answer this question on August 12 through a ballot, not rallies, Opinion and Feature articles, or Polls. Understandably, UPND cadres are convinced, HH has already WON. Who can doubt it? The PF is rotten to the core, knows no law, and is morally inept. And has Bally not said it? \u201cChange is written everywhere.\u201d The cadre syndrome\u2013the failure to reason beyond one\u2019s party biases is behind this rationale.<\/p>\n

In his Monday, August 9, 2021, Lusaka Times Featured Article, for example, Dr. Sishuwa Sishuwa presented various issues at play in this election. His analysis was solely centered on President Lungu\u2019s undemocratic habitude\u2013including his recent shameful threat to arrest HH should he win the election. Missing, however, were HH\u2019s own missteps in the past 5 years. From failure to sustain good alliances to intra-party conflicts, the UPND has lacked a sustained message to unseat the Lungu regime.<\/p>\n

In 1991, Zambians wanted change, but all politicians settled for Chiluba, as opposed to over a dozen candidates\u2013that was before a 50+1 threshold. While his piece has a number of \u201cconspiracy theories, \u201d I want to highlight one in which he claims Lungu wanted one candidate to drop out so as to postpone the Presidential elections. It seems this hoax is behind Nevers Mumba\u2019s recent statement that he is still in the race. This is a dangerous route; if the word goes out that elections are postponed, many people may stay away from the Polls.<\/p>\n

The big number of candidates makes it harder for HH and Lungu to get 50+1. In case of the rerun, these candidates would be king makers. Naturally they would support HH, but the UPND has repeatedly failed to form alliances with other candidates; this is a weakness that cannot be blamed on the PF but solely on HH. Sishuwa\u2019s observations on M\u2019membe doing better than other candidates, though important, is another example of HH\u2019s lack of strategic thinking. Why adopt Mrs. Mutinta Mazoka M\u2019membe as a UPND Parliamentary Candidate, knowing too well that the husband would be running against him? What makes him think M\u2019membe does not know the inside info about the UPND strategy? Mutinta is a liability to HH, but since she is a Mazoka, HH is held captive. Assuming M\u2019membe wins, would Mutinta refuse to be the First Lady? Strategic planning is just as important as voting, but the UPND has Lungu to blame for lack of it.<\/p>\n

Sishuwa did not mention the fact that not everybody shouting \u201d alebwelelapo,\u201d or \u201cFaka Pressure\u201d and attending rallies will cast a vote; a number won\u2019t. Crowds won\u2019t translate into actual votes. It is hard to know how many people polled are actually going to vote. Zambia is anti-voter friendly; so many people won\u2019t vote. It is a shame that Patson Daka was flying the Zambian Flag at Wembley on Saturday with pride, yet he is among the many Zambians who won\u2019t cast their votes. So are many of those who are posting on social media or relocated, they can shout, but can\u2019t vote. This will be a factor.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the Bally team underestimated Lungu\u2019s strategic capabilities. So far, Bally has not beaten Lungu by double digits in any single Poll\u2013the number generally needed for a challenger to unseat the Incumbent. As Incumbent, Lungu has unlimited resources at his disposal. Sishuwa\u2019s observation on the \u201cpreferential\u201d treatment of Lungu over HH though varied, ignores the fact that Lungu\u2019s campaign cannot be separated from his work as the President of the Republic of Zambia. Lungu is flying across the country to highlight his achievements as both President and presidential candidate. In competitive politics, nothing is apolitical. From visiting a market to entering a public toilet to holding a crying baby to attending a Church service, a politician is making a political statement. And Lungu has done this so well in his re-election efforts.<\/p>\n

The PF strategists disarmed the HH team of one of its biggest arsenal \u2013 \u2013 the bad economy. From GBM to Nawakwi to Kambwili, the economy song was the same\u2013the economic downturn has been slow due to various factors. The COVID-19 Pandemic led to the global economic crunch. Prices are up, but Lungu is working on it. Aside from linking HH to the 1990s privatization scam, they borrowed M\u2019membe\u2019s attacks to define HH as a selfish man who cares only for his own personal interests. \u201cHe did it then, imagine what he would do when he is president\u201d\u2013it is a compelling populist message. They point to infrastructure\u2013airports, good roads, bridges, power generators, hospitals, and health care centers among many projects as evidence that Lungu is working hard for Zambia. These visible infrastructure cannot be easily dismissed\u2013ordinary people don\u2019t see \u201cMr. International Debt,\u201d despite how many times team HH, and scholars highlight it. Inkongole of over $13 billion is a national crisis, but it is invisible to the masses\u2013it is a policy argument that makes sense to the elite, which is a very small part of the electorate. Worse still, the effects of this debt will be felt in the future.<\/p>\n

In addition, the Lungu team strategically timed the completion of many projects so as to unveil them as campaign capital. When HH says Lungu did nothing, the PF points to Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe Airport, ongoing work at Kenneth Kaunda International Airport, and other infrastructure to showcase its work. This narrative is convincingly appealing. We can hardly dispute the fact that the PF has given Zambia its deserved respect when it comes to infrastructure\u2013we were a shame of Southern Africa. HH and some of us know that corruption and mismanagement are involved, but the majority doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Similarly, team HH repeatedly argued that the depreciation of the Kwacha was indicative that Lungu was killing the economy. Now that the Kwacha is appreciating, team HH wants to dismiss it as fake. Yet economists know that international factors control the value of the local currency\u2013putting Bally in a fix. The same could be said about the debt swap for civil servants. That Unions applauded the gesture, and put HH a+in a fix\u2013they couldn\u2019t dismiss it without appearing to be anti-civil service.<\/p>\n

Sishuwa\u2019s claim that Lungu wanted to separate Presidential elections from Parliamentary elections defies logic. Generally, more people vote in general elections than in special or by-elections because of the pool of people contesting. In fact, this is one area the HH team has been weak\u2013it has put so much emphasis on winning the presidency. Parliamentary and Local government elections are critical to which party wins the Presidency. Against all odds, HH could win the Presidency, but not the Parliament and the local government. This would mean that he won\u2019t govern. That aside, people generally vote down the ballot\u2013rarely do people vote for a different presidential candidate, and a different MP, and a different Mayor or Councilor. This is the reason we have very few independent MPs. The failure to fully fund UPND MPs and local government elections across the nation could prove very costly to HH. This is the area where the power of the Incumbent overshadows the UPND. Lungu is campaigning for his MPs, Mayors and Councilors even in areas he knows they won\u2019t win\u2013their votes are his votes.<\/p>\n

Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu once said, \u201cTo know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.\u201d By rejoining the PF, Kambwili, Professor Geoffrey Lungwangwa, Banda, and GBM among many others have brought with them insider information about the UPND which has contributed to the destabilization and disruption of HH\u2019s campaign.<\/p>\n

GBM and Kambwili are cited for tribalism, but the truth remains\u2013our political system is tribalistic. The UPND has locked in the Tonga and Lozi vote, and the PF has locked in the Bemba and Eastern vote. We may pretend, but when we enter the polling station, most Bembas and their senseless cousins will vote for Lungu because he is not Tonga and vice versa. HH is hoping that the majority of Zambians have moved to see him aside from his tribe, I pray that the Tongas would do the same to Lungu. Yes the UPND has made some inroads in PF strongholds but so has the PF in the UPND strongholds. Moreover M\u2019membe and Kalaba are the new players who are complicating the political landscape. It seems the closest HH would come to Plot 1 is to force a rerun, but would he have enough allies to cross the finish line?<\/p>\n

Given HH\u2019s lack of long-term strategy, the power of the Incumbent and the congruence of other factors, it is hard to see how HH would win this election as Sishuwa suggests. I may be wrong. After all, the electorate is always unpredictable. Who thought Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton and become 45th President of the United States? All Polls and experts favored Clinton, but on election day, the electorate voted for Trump. In politics, everything is possible.<\/p>\n

For this reason, I find Sishuwa and UPND expectations deadly and dangerous\u2013we should not only expect one outcome: a win for HH. Disturbingly, this is another Trumpian invitation to violence. All votes must be counted and whoever get 50+1 wins. To claim that the only \u201cfree and fair election\u201d is the one that will see HH in Plot 1 is a recipe for violence\u2013words and conspiracy theories can be deadly. Our analyses, and polls are based on observations, but the real truth will be known on August 12 after the last vote is cast and all votes are counted. Good luck to Lungu and HH; only one will win. We have one Zambia to Protect. May God bless our Great Nation, Zambia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Zambia. To UPND cadres, questioning if HH will win this election is tantamount to doubting if Jesus is the Son of God. Such reasoning cannot only be considered undemocratic and unpatriotic, but also be deadly and dangerous. We may campaign for change, but we should be morally responsible to respect the dual outcome […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":4155,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6,7,8,16],"tags":[234,235,1691,1573,233],"class_list":["post-4156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","category-head-lines","category-homepage-english","category-twitter","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-zambia","tag-dr-sishuwa-sishuwa","tag-upnd-cadres","tag-zambia"],"yoast_head":"\nSaying Lungu Will Win is Not Blasphemy: UPND and Dr. Sishuwa\u2019s Dangerous Election Expectation - Zambia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"To UPND cadres, questioning if HH will win this election is tantamount to doubting if Jesus is the Son of God. 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