De-Risking the Global South Through CIPS and China

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De-Risking the Global South Through CIPS and China
De-Risking the Global South Through CIPS and China

Africa-Press – Zimbabwe. The Global South, and Africa in particular, faces a deep structural vulnerability: the US dollar and the SWIFT system have been repeatedly weaponised, as clearly demonstrated in the cases of Russia, Iran, Zimbabwe and other nations.

Unilateral sanctions are no longer an extraordinary measure, but a routine tool of American hegemony.

For Africa to achieve genuine strategic autonomy, three parallel steps are essential: first, integrating national banking systems into China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS); second, building a diversified foreign reserve structure composed of US dollars, yuan, gold and regional currencies; and third, establishing mutual visa-free travel between Africa and China to solidify economic and people-to-people ties.

This analysis offers practical, step-by-step pathways and mutually beneficial solutions tailored to African realities.

CIPS integration is critical to breaking financial dominance. Several obstacles remain for African countries.

Most African central banks and commercial banks still process US dollar transactions through American correspondent banks.

While CIPS has more than 1 400 participants worldwide, African institutions remain underrepresented, with only South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria in pilot phases.

African banking systems also face technical and compliance gaps, requiring upgrades to ISO 20022 messaging standards and alignment with Chinese anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing rules.

Implementation can proceed steadily in phases. In the first phase, African central banks will sign bilateral currency swap agreements with the People’s Bank of China, which can be completed within six to 12 months.

In the second phase, each African nation will designate three to five top commercial banks to join CIPS as indirect participants, a process expected to take 12 to 18 months.

The third phase will involve staff training and technical upgrades through partnerships with Chinese fintech institutions to build SWIFT-to-CIPS gateways, over 18 to 24 months.

In the fourth phase, within 24 to 36 months, eligible institutions will attain direct CIPS participation, and commodities such as oil, minerals and agricultural products will be settled directly in yuan.

To mitigate risks, African countries can continue using US dollars for legacy debt obligations while shifting new trade to yuan, and use gold as a ultimate reserve anchor — a path already supported by growing gold holdings in Zimbabwe, Ghana and Nigeria.

Building a multi-currency and gold reserve system is a vital defense against unilateral sanctions.

The United States has repeatedly used freezes on foreign reserves, as seen in Afghanistan and Russia, proving that any Global South country with significant dollar assets is a potential target.

A dollar-only reserve structure is therefore fatally risky.

African countries can gradually adjust their reserves to allocate 40% to US dollar assets for existing payment obligations, 30% to yuan to match China-Africa trade volumes — which account for 20 to 40% of total external trade for many African economies — 20% to physical gold stored within the region or in friendly jurisdictions, and 10% to other currencies such as the euro, rupee or regional currencies like the Eco once viable.

Gulf states have set a precedent: the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have expanded yuan settlement, with Saudi Arabia pricing part of its oil sales to China in yuan. African nations can replicate this model, with cobalt from DRC, lithium from Zimbabwe, copper from Zambia and gold from Ghana traded directly for yuan.

China’s zero-tariff policy for African goods is already in place and its benefits must be expanded.

Starting May 1, 2026, all goods from Africa will enter China duty-free. African countries should push for simplified rules of origin using a single “wholly obtained in Africa” certification to lower compliance costs.

Special China-Africa trade desks should be established at major ports including Mombasa, Durban, Tema and Dar es Salaam to improve efficiency.

Under the 2027 FOCAC framework, zero-tariff access should be extended to all AU member states, not least developed countries only.

For Africa, this will support export diversification and industrialisation by encouraging local processing of raw materials before export.

For China, it will secure stable supply chains for critical minerals and food security.

Mutual visa-free travel is the missing link to unlock deeper China-Africa cooperation.

Current bilateral travel arrangements are asymmetrical: Chinese citizens require visas for most African countries, and Africans need visas to enter China.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom, a frequently hostile power, maintains a more liberal visa regime with China.

This geopolitically illogical gap must be closed. Africa and China can adopt a phased visa-waiver model: first, immediate mutual visa exemption for diplomatic and official passports.

Second, five-year multiple-entry access for business travelers and frequent visitors, backed by police clearance and verified corporate sponsorship. Third, 15 to 30 days visa-free entry for tourist groups, supported by police clearance and return ticket proof.

After two years of low infraction rates, the two sides can move to full reciprocal visa waiver.

To manage security risks, applicants will provide police clearance certificates authenticated by both governments; a shared digital database will track banned individuals for overstay or criminal violations; and an electronic travel authorization (eTA) system will be used for efficient, low-cost background checks.

Visa-free travel will deliver strong economic gains. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese tourists spent US$255 billion globally, but Africa received less than 5 % — visa-free access could double this share.

Chinese business delegations will be able to negotiate investments without three-week visa delays, and students, researchers and medical tourists will benefit from two-way mobility.

For China, the growing African middle class represents a potential US$10 billion outbound tourism market; due diligence and partnership building for Chinese firms will become much easier; and soft power and diplomatic goodwill will be strengthened, especially compared to restrictive Western visa policies.

Risks must be managed thoughtfully.

To address possible US secondary sanctions on banks using CIPS, special-purpose vehicles can be created in non-aligned jurisdictions.

To ease yuan illiquidity in local markets, the PBOC can provide standing currency swap lines and private sector holdings of yuan can be encouraged.

To prevent visa-free abuse such as overstays and crime, police clearance, eTA screening and biometric exit checks will form a robust management system.

Gold will be used only as a long-term reserve asset, not for daily settlement, to reduce exposure to price volatility.

The Global South cannot wait for a new world order to emerge fully formed; it must build parallel systems now.

In the immediate term of 0 to 12 months, countries should swiftly sign yuan swap agreements with the PBOC, and launch a visa-waiver pilot program based on police clearance with Zimbabwe,

Kenya and Mauritius. Over the medium term of 12 to 36 months, leading banks should be integrated into CIPS, 30% of China-Africa trade should shift to yuan settlement, and the eTA-based visa-waiver system should be extended to all AU members.

In the long term of 36 to 60 months, a gold-backed regional settlement system should be established under the AfCFTA, and full mutual visa-free travel between China and Africa should be realized.

The US dollar and SWIFT are instruments of hegemony. CIPS, the yuan, gold reserves and visa-free corridors are instruments of autonomy and resilience.

This choice is not anti-any nation; it is pro-survival, pro-development and pro-sovereignty for the Global South.

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