Africa-Press – Angola. The value of the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projected for Angola, in the period 2023-2027, is around 70.3 billion kwanzas (Kz), on average, with emphasis on the non-oil sector, which could contribute with Kz 59.3 billion (84.34%) compared to the oil sector.
According to data from the Angolan Government presented at the 1st edition of the “Angola Economic Outlook – AEO”, held on Wednesday (26th) in Luanda, it is estimated that the oil sector contributes with 11.8 billion kwanzas (15.66% ) for the total nominal GDP, in the period under analysis.
In practical terms, the expected revenues from the production and sale of non-oil goods produced and services provided in Angola could significantly exceed the amount to be collected in the oil sector.
For these forecasts to come true, the performance of the non-oil sector must be ensured by the sectors of agriculture, livestock and forestry, with 8.80%, fisheries and derivatives (16%), industry (5.26%), construction (5. 4%), trade (3.85%), energy (5.88%), transport and storage (13.22%), mail and telecommunications, with 12.52%.
Furthermore, the promotion of growth in the non-oil sector will also require strengthening credit to the economy, in particular to micro, small and medium-sized companies, so that the private sector is the engine of economic growth, as stated in the document presented in the Angola Economic Outlook.
Additionally, this sector should be boosted by the implementation of medium-term planning instruments, namely Planapecuária, Planagrão and Planapesca.
These instruments also include the second phase of the Integrated Plan for Intervention in Municipalities (PIIM 2), consolidation of the Privatization Program (PROPRIV) and the second phase of the cash transfer program for vulnerable families, known as “Kwenda 2”.
As for the oil sector, a smaller contraction in production levels is estimated, with a stabilization around one thousand and ten (1,010) barrels/day, until 2027, as a result of the implementation of a set of planned measures, such as the Exploration Strategy 2020-2025 and the General Strategy for the Allocation of Petroleum Concessions 2019-2025, which foresees granting more than 50 concessions.
However, GDP is expected to register an annual average real growth of around 3.68%, with the average growth of the non-oil sector being 4.74%, while the oil sector, including gas, could reach , on average, 2.6%.
macroeconomic stabilization
According to forecasts, it is estimated that macroeconomic stability will remain in the country, with inflation expected to drop to single digits from 2023 onwards, with a view to ensuring levels of interest rates that are attractive to investment and in line with levels of the SADC Region.
Despite the medium-term forecasts expressing a certain optimism, there are still some risks that may emerge, both in the international and national context, namely international geopolitical tensions, reduction in the price of a barrel of oil in international markets and increase in financing costs in the market worldwide.
This list also includes a systematic reduction in crude oil production levels, lower growth in non-oil GDP, a lower probability of achieving the levels of revenue forecast by the National Treasury and an increase in general price levels in the short term, due to the withdrawal of fuel subsidies.
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