Africa-Press – Botswana. The President has never spoken in a more sombre tone and terms since he assumed office in November last year: “The road ahead is not smooth. It is bumpy. It is uncertain.” An independent economist has welcomed this sobriety and expects the President to address the nation formally.
After months of promises and heightened public expectations, President Duma Boko delivered sobering news on Monday when he presented a grim economic outlook for Botswana that is rooted in the “total collapse of the diamond industry”.
Addressing a gathering of public and private sector workers in Gaborone yesterday, the President disclosed that Botswana’s diamonds – long the backbone of the country’s economy – have not yielded significant returns for three consecutive years.
“The reality is painful. The diamond industry has not been productive for three full years,” he intoned before warning that the nation is on the verge of severe job losses in the mining sector. “We are staring down the barrel of a storm. Tough times lie ahead, and as a nation, we must be prepared.”
Investor confidence
President Boko spoke of a 26% drop in investor confidence, a development that he described as disturbing, especially at a time when the country is in desperate need of foreign investment to prop up its flagging economy.
Amid these mounting challenges, Boko conceded that his administration’s ambitious promises — which were a key pillar of his electoral campaign — were now under threat.
He added that international development finance institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have begun recommending austerity measures, including the downsizing Botswana’s ‘bloated’ civil service.
Candour
“I must be honest with you — the road ahead is not smooth. It is bumpy. It is uncertain,” the President stated in sombre tones.
Meanwhile, although he questioned the timing and platform of the announcement, renowned economist Sennye Obuseng has welcomed President Boko’s candour.
“I am glad the President is finally being honest,” he said. “This is the moment that I have long waited for. The promises being made by the President and some of his lieutenants were not aligned with the budget presented in February by the Vice President and Minister of Finance, Ndaba Gaolathe.”
Full-blown recession
Obuseng noted that the state of the diamond industry is so dire that the nation should brace for a full-blown recession in 2025 if austerity measures are not urgently implemented.
“This is a national emergency and the President should be addressing the nation formally,” he said. “What we need is an urgent and transparent national response.”
The economist warned that Botswana must begin to seriously brace themselves for a post-diamond reality. “In my analysis, diamonds may never recover,” Obuseng prognosed. “Consumer preferences are shifting towards lab-grown diamonds. The trend is clear and irreversible.”
De Beers devalued
He pointed to Anglo American’s recent moves to devalue De Beers — Botswana’s long-time diamond partner — saying: “De Beers has become a depreciating asset for them.
“They have already adjusted its value downwards twice and are struggling to find a buyer. People speak of Botswana increasing its stake in De Beers and I ask, to what end and based on what logic?”
Obuseng raised concerns about the government’s inconsistent messaging on the economic crisis, warning that the mixed signals are causing confusion and undermining public trust.
Deeply troubling
He noted that while some senior officials continue to advocate for increased public spending and expansionary policies, others are calling for austerity and fiscal restraint — a contradiction that he said is deeply troubling.
“There is a clear lack of coherence in the government’s communication,” Obuseng noted. “At a time like this, when the nation is looking for direction and certainty, we cannot afford to have leaders pulling in different directions.
“There is an urgent need for a unified voice – one that reflects the true state of our economy and outlines a clear, realistic path forward.”
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