By Dr. Douglas Rasbash
Africa-Press – Botswana. When President Duma Boko announced Botswana had secured a staggering $12 billion “investment” from Al Mansour Holdings of Qatar, the news reverberated across the nation. The figure is more than half of Botswana’s GDP, seven times its annual development budget, and sixty times greater than 2023’s foreign direct investment inflows. For a country facing drought, high unemployment, and waning diamond revenues, the promise seemed transformative, with projects spanning infrastructure, energy, mining beneficiation, tourism, cyber industries, and defence.
Yet behind the announcement lie unanswered questions: Who exactly is Al Mansour Holdings? Can it deliver? And what are the implications for Botswana’s strained public finances?
An opaque partner
Official statements describe Al Mansour Holdings as a “premium Qatari business house” chaired by Sheikh Mansour bin Jabor bin Jassim Al Thani. The group claims over 100 subsidiaries worldwide and roots dating to 1978. However, its true origins are murky. Some link it to JMJ Group, registered in 2009, while others point to a British registration in 2023 tied to the British Virgin Islands. Unlike Qatar’s sovereign giants, Al Mansour publishes no reports, audited accounts, or ownership structures, trading largely on Qatari branding and royal associations.
Media reports have deepened doubts, noting that the purported chair also runs an architectural firm in Australia with no clear links to Qatari state institutions. Qatar’s Government Communications Office has declined comment, and the name similarity to Egypt’s Mansour Group — a major African conglomerate — risks confusion, though the two are unrelated.
Scale without precedent
Botswana’s GDP in 2024 was under $19.5 billion, with a development budget of $1.65 billion and reserves below $5 billion. Annual foreign investment was $200 million. By these measures, $12 billion is monumental — akin to creating an entire parallel economy.
The country has managed large projects before, but none approaching this scale. The Kazungula Bridge cost $260 million; the troubled Morupule B power station absorbed $1.4 billion. Even combined, these pale next to Al Mansour’s pledge. Zambia received a similar $19 billion promise from the company, which remains unfulfilled, suggesting such announcements may be more political theatre than executable deals.
The ambiguity of “investment”
Government officials label the commitment as an “investment,” but the term is vague. It could mean equity in joint ventures, long-term concessions, supplier-tied credit lines, or de facto loans to be repaid with interest. No public details clarify the model, list of projects, timelines, or capital structure. Evidence points to a memorandum of understanding rather than a binding contract — the kind of PR tool that rarely translates into actual disbursements.
Governance and capacity challenges
The Botswana Development Corporation (BDC), named as domestic partner, has assets of about $400 million — less than one-thirtieth of the announced sum. Managing $12 billion would require special-purpose vehicles and sovereign guarantees, which would raise debt risks. Ratings agencies already have Botswana on a negative outlook; debt-heavy commitments could push debt-to-GDP to 55–60%.
Even if funds arrived, history shows money isn’t Botswana’s main constraint. Large sums have been spent with underwhelming results: recapitalised airlines still incur losses, special economic zones sit idle, and core infrastructure struggles with potholes, power cuts, and water shortages. Without governance reforms and state enterprise restructuring, new funds risk being wasted.
The need for transparency
Botswana has a reputation for good governance when dealing with multilateral lenders, with contracts and procurement open to scrutiny. In contrast, the Al Mansour deal offers no such safeguards so far. Details on whether it is debt, equity, or concession; repayment terms; and project timelines remain undisclosed.
Independent oversight is vital. Parliament, civil society, and the Auditor-General must examine the agreement to prevent scenarios where ribbon-cuttings mask undelivered funds or hidden liabilities.
Lessons from the region
Across Africa, similar mega-promises have often fizzled. Zambia’s $19 billion pledge from Al Mansour stalled at the announcement stage. Zimbabwe and others have courted opaque foreign conglomerates only to see little realised. No evidence shows Al Mansour has delivered a project on this scale before.
Mirage or miracle?
Botswana’s need to diversify beyond diamonds is undeniable, with capital required for infrastructure, renewable energy, agro-industry, and eco-tourism. Global investment could aid this transformation, but not all partners are equal. As yet, there is no confirmation from Qatar’s government, no audited evidence of funds, and no financial institutions backing the deal.
Until proof emerges, Botswana must treat the $12 billion announcement with caution. Development depends not on press conferences but on enforceable contracts, delivery, and above all, trust — and trust must be earned through transparency.
Source: Botswana Gazette
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