Africa-Press – Cape verde. Guinea-Bissau has not produced consolidated institutions from a political and economic point of view,” warns Guinean sociologist Miguel de Barros, stressing that the situation in the country “is very critical.”
Since November 26th, Guinea-Bissau has once again plunged into a “very critical” political crisis, acknowledges the Guinean sociologist. Miguel de Barros states that the country “has not produced consolidated institutions from a political and economic point of view,” warning that these same institutions are now “hostage to the most powerful political disputes, which are the Armed Forces.”
The Guinean sociologist argues that “there is nothing more certain in a democracy than elections”; however, he warns that the authorities must “realize that elections are not resolved simply when they are held. There is a whole path to follow.”
The electoral process in Guinea-Bissau was interrupted by a coup d’état on November 26, 2025, before the official results of the general elections were released. On that day, the military seized power; the outgoing President and candidate for a second term, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, left the country; and the opposition candidate, Fernando Dias, took refuge in the Nigerian embassy, from where he left on January 30, in an action resulting from the mediation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Several political leaders were detained and subsequently released, with the exception of Domingos Simões Pereira, leader of the PAIGC, who was released from prison but remains under house arrest.
Since taking power, the military has changed the Constitution, the law on political parties, and called for new general elections on December 6, a date that coincides with the end of the announced 12-month transition period.
Miguel de Barros questioned what guarantees exist that the next elections will not have the same effect as those held about three months ago, asking about the commitment of the Armed Forces to respect the results, the participation of all political actors, the monitoring of the process, and the carrying out of a public audit of the events of the last year.
“First, what guarantee is given that the next elections will not have the same effect as the 2025 elections?”, he stressed. Meanwhile, the African Union (AU) special envoy to Bissau arrived in the country and met, on Thursday, February 19, with the Transitional President, Horta Intá.
In an interview with RFI, during the 39th African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Patrice Trovoada assured that there is still “much to be done” in the country’s transition process, admitting that the priority is to curb the erosion of political and institutional trust.
“When we speak of the need to restore constitutional order after a power grab by unconstitutional means, we are not saying that it is restored as soon as the perpetrators of the coup d’état hold elections and are elected,” warning that this practice represents “a way of whitewashing an act tainted by legitimacy.”
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