Africa-Press – Cape verde. The recent internal elections of the PAICV open a new stage for the largest opposition party. Still in the aftermath of the election, in an interview with Expresso das Ilhas, José Sanches and António Ludgero Correia share their perspective on Francisco Carvalho’s victory, the internal challenges and the future of the party, anticipating the course of the next political battles in Cape Verde. Read the interview with political analyst António Ludgero Correia here.
Starting with the campaign, which was relatively turbulent. How do you evaluate this whole process?
Campaigns have their mischief, but this one was a bit strange, because it wasn’t about adversaries. PAICV’s opponent is the MpD. These were comrades who were positioning themselves, defending their points of view to the party leadership, but what happened gave the impression that we were facing a fight with enemies, and not with people we will have to count on for the real fight that will take place in 2026, in the general elections.
Would you say there was too much friction?
There was a war of inflated egos and it seems that the notion of context was lost: it was not a fight for power in the country, but an internal dispute that should have had other parameters, other behaviors. Tempers have escalated, and now the role of the winner in the reunification of the party and in the preparation, in less than a year, for elections that will now be against the party’s adversary is quite complicated.
The results were clear and Francisco Carvalho’s victory was significant. Was such a loose result predictable?
It was predictable. During the campaign, some attitudes and positions reflected the general perception that Francisco was very well launched. Francisco has Santiago behind him, which has more than half the population and more than half of the party’s members. Whoever controls Santiago, controls a majority. I believe it has extrapolated to other latitudes, but there is a discourse that works wonderfully well in Santiago. People were afraid of being defeated and tried to eliminate him from the list of candidates, but I believe that this extra campaign time that they gained with the intervention of the STF benefited Francisco Carvalho even more. He victimized himself, placed himself in the position of a victim, and had more time to reach places he had not been able to penetrate before. The result ended up reflecting this. I believe that everyone already knew that he would win, and he himself was aware of this. Now, I hope that he is also aware and conscious of the work he will have to do to try to reunify the party, to undo the divisions that emerged during the campaign.
Above Francisco Carvalho was the abstention, which exceeded 60%. How can we explain the lack of turnout among activists at the polls?
I think Francisco Carvalho needs to know this: the votes that win the elections are not the votes of the members. The votes of the activists are not enough. Even if all 36,000 voted, it is a very weak representation of the national universe of voters. They expected 26,000 to show up, but only a few 10,000 showed up, and this shows that people are more focused on conflicts where there is a possibility of a change in power, where things can happen that affect their lives. Furthermore, the way in which people who did not align themselves with a certain guideline began to be treated must have increased abstention. Also note the blank votes. When in a party election, there are 61 people [NB: The final results indicate 124 blank votes, and not 61, as indicated by the provisional data known when the interview was conducted] who are willing to go to the polls, to cast a blank ballot, that is not just any voter, it never is. These are people who clearly want to say that none of the candidates said anything to them, and these are people who can interfere at other times.
Francisco Carvalho is, in a way, an outsider of the PAICV, in the sense that he was not part of the party’s traditional structures. How do you see, in this context, the rise to leadership?
Elections are about the moment in which they happen. See the case of Cavaco Silva in Santa Maria da Feira [Portugal, 1985]. He went to the PSD Congress and became president of the party [without initially being a candidate], and soon after he was elected prime minister. In the case of Francisco Carvalho, he was always an activist: they say he didn’t pay dues, it’s because he was always an activist. He held management positions [in the State, he was general director of communities], and these positions are not given to simple sympathizers. In the last election, with Rui Semedo, he decided not to participate, in fact. But he is not a stranger. He’s a guy who placed himself outside the “clique” to later appear as a person who has solutions that the “clique” didn’t have, which is very different from being an outsider. There was even talk of the possibility of him presenting a motion for sectoral strategy, because the statutes allowed him not to run for office in that area.ura – it didn’t suit him – but he presented it. However, he didn’t even do that. At first, you could read that it was an opportunity he couldn’t miss, because it would put him in pole position, but he didn’t do that and worked here at the Praia Chamber. I think his investment is in work, and people are not used to politicians who show work. Although some consider that what he shows is little for the city of Praia, the truth is that he shows work. And so far, no one has accused him of embezzlement, corruption, or anything like that. Therefore, he is not exactly an outsider — he is someone who placed himself outside the clique and then presented himself against it, like a D. Sebastião, to rescue the party.
He spoke of D. Sebastião. Some people call him a populist for coming up with “miraculous” solutions?
Solution proposals. Because he says in his speech the things that people want to hear, but what people want to hear, and what he can do, do not coincide.
Do you think there is any basis for the criticism of populism?
Promises are part of campaigns, but they must be things that can be minimally fulfilled without creating extra problems. When he arrived at Praia City Hall, he promised that he would lower all taxes, some of which were already low, by around 90%, and he delivered. However, by doing so, it ended up excluding itself from program contracts with the Government. The thing is, when you reduce taxes on services of this nature, the interpretation is that you are giving up revenue. Now, those who forgo income cannot compete for Central Government programs, which are intended for those with insufficient resources. Program contracts are for municipalities that lack resources to be able to execute projects, because it is in the municipalities that the country really happens. But if a municipality gives up its own revenue, a problem is created. In the case of air tickets, I didn’t hear directly, but you would have talked about lowering the price to 5 thousand. Now, the tickets have a real cost of 15 contos. And if you’re going to sell them for 5, someone has to cover the remaining 10, because it won’t be the airline that’s going to cover that difference. It would be the Treasury. With the accounts we know from our Treasury, is there room to finance airfare at this level? A subsidy, fine, but if we are thinking of subsidizing each of these tickets for around 10 thousand, it will be difficult for the Public Treasury to bear this burden. And if the Treasury can’t handle it, it’s not the head of government, personally, who’s going to do it. If he knows that someone would have to pay those two thirds that he suppresses and promises, it is serious; If you don’t know, it’s even more serious.
Meanwhile, each leader leaves his mark on the party. What do you think Francisco Carvalho’s PAICV will be like?
Francisco Carvalho will have to rebuild the PAICV in his own image and likeness. The party has been crossing the desert for 10 years now. He was left somewhat of an orphan with the departure of José Maria Neves, on whom he depended greatly. This orphanhood was never filled by Rui Semedo who, in addition,
has the sin of, by announcing that he would not run again, completely resigning from his responsibilities, which last until the day the future president is sworn in. Things started to happen without him having any control over the party, and this left the PAICV in a complicated situation, which has now worsened with the divisions that emerged during the campaign. So, the new PAICV is what will be built and it is up to Francisco Carvalho to rebuild the party in his image and likeness, which would be, once again, a party of militants, of people going to meetings, of grassroots committees and the party bodies functioning. I believe that a problem can be anticipated: I won’t say divorce, but a certain distancing from the elders, the so-called party barons. If they already had one foot out, I believe that now they will be completely out, which could be somewhat emasculating for the party.
When José Maria Neves took over leadership, wasn’t there also a certain rupture?
José Maria Neves does not make a complete cut. Cut, but keep the cords attached. He called Silvino da Luz as ambassador to Angola, sent Olívio Pires as ambassador [to Germany] and spoke regularly with others. And there was the figure of Pedro Pires above the candidacies, who could always build the necessary bridges. I believe that this time it will be more complicated, because Pedro Pires is seen as part of the group supporting the candidacy that suffered the biggest defeat – because there are two other candidacies that were “on vacation”. His name was linked to this defeated candidacy, that of Nuías Silva, and, once again, the party is left without a bridge, without someone capable of connecting generations. Even though he belonged to the older generation, Pedro Pires was always seen as a bridge, he always managed to make the necessary connections so that there would be no cut. Now, it gets more complicated. Francisco de Carvalho does not recognize this role for Neves, who cannot even exercise it because he ishead of state.
The eyes are now turned to 2026. Whether now as opposition or as a candidate, what contribution do you think Francisco Carvalho can make?
I think that at this moment Ulisses Correia a Silva must already be setting off fireworks, because he knows that Francisco Carvalho has a speech that mobilizes a lot, but here in Praia, in Santiago. For the legislative elections, I fear that there won’t be much time until then, because the party will have to be reunified, and it will have to make alliances within the party itself to be able to cover such an important area as the northwest of Cape Verde. This group formed by São Vicente, Santo Antão and São Nicolau has its own idiosyncrasy that needs to be penetrated. If you don’t have a good connection, it’s complicated. And Francisco has little time. Ulisses, with the known weaknesses, with the current problems of governance, which are not satisfactory, still maintains a machine that has been in operation since 2016, which has already gained a great deal of experience. They do not forget the grievances they have towards Ulysses, but they are gathered around him. They did not go to the polls, to guarantee a certain continuity, a lot of stability, and there are people who produce speeches that could help, and a lot, to overcome Ulisses’ eventual weaknesses. As we have just said, Francisco represents a break with the previous generation, while Ulysses maintains this connection. Look at the government reshuffle he did [with MpD veterans]. These people bring added value in the construction of the discourse, they bring added value in terms of penetration and Francisco will have some difficulty in facing Ulysses. I believe that Ulysses would have, I wouldn’t say fear, but perhaps a greater concern with Nuías Silva, who has an easy, convincing speech. Nuías could also give Ulysses serious headaches. But, Francisco has already beaten MpD twice in Praia. Last time, he personally won against Ulisses who said he wanted Praia at any cost. Even so, I believe that at a national level it will be very complicated.
And as opposition? Will it be a dialogical or more aggressive position?
I believe that Francisco Carvalho is not a man of dialogue. Watch the victory speech he gave in the municipal elections on December 1st. Whoever wins tends to be more conciliatory, more magnanimous, and he wasn’t. He even cut off an intervention by the president of the Municipal Chamber, who was trying to calm things down, saying that the central government and the local government could reach an agreement on some issues, to resolve the problems, because the country happens in the municipality. He grabbed the microphone and went for it, cutting the ties that Clara Marques was trying to extend. Therefore, this does not bode well in opposition matters. And an opposition that only has one year to assert itself will not be a partner, will not cooperate, should not. In fact, you really can’t. You will have to show that you are worth more, that you would do better and you will have to challenge everything the other party does in order to assert yourself. This is because it will have to assert itself in contradiction to the power that has been in place since 2016. At least until the elections, it will be a “botá pá kebrá”. Then we’ll see.
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