Africa-Press – Eritrea. The UN reported Tuesday that global trade is expected to reach an all-time high of $35 trillion in 2025, despite geopolitical tensions.
“The new data confirm that trade continued expanding through the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and uneven global demand slowed momentum,” the UN Trade and Development Organization (UNCTAD) said in a statement.
Global trade is expected to grow 7% in 2025, adding $2.2 trillion and setting a new record, according to the agency. In the third quarter, global trade grew 2.5% compared to the previous quarter. Growth is expected to continue in the final quarter, though at a slower pace.
“If projections hold, goods would add about $1.5 trillion to this year’s total and services $750 billion, consistent with an overall 7% annual increase,” it noted.
Stating that prices are seeing a significant change, the agency said they are now anticipated to decline, following two quarters where trade values increased in part due to the rising cost of goods.
“As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 comes from higher volumes – the actual quantity of goods shipped – rather than from price increases. This points to stable demand even as inflation eases,” it noted.
With a 10% increase in intra-regional trade, East Asia saw the highest export growth over the previous year at 9%. Africa also saw its exports rise 6% and imports increase 10%, while South-South trade increased almost 8%, indicating the strengthening of linkages between developing economies.
In terms of individual economies, Brazil and South Africa were major forces in South America and Africa, while China and South Korea were notable in East Asia.
Manufacturing rose 10% during the year, with electronics leading the way at 14% due to demand for artificial intelligence (AI).
Cereals and fruit and vegetable exports jumped 11% in the third quarter, indicating a significant expansion in agriculture. Trade in fossil fuels fell due to decreasing costs, and automobile trade dropped 4%.
