By
Yannis Bassias
Africa-Press – Eritrea. The phenomenon of negative electricity prices has become a reality across Europe, and with the rapid expansion of solar installations lacking sufficient storage capacity, this phenomenon is emerging everywhere.
In early May, European energy prices saw a significant decline due to low demand and increased solar power generation. Off-peak intraday prices in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands averaged around -160 euros per megawatt-hour during midday hours, with Belgium hitting a low of -266 euros/MWh. France faced the challenge of excessive renewable energy production, forcing the country to pay exorbitant amounts per megawatt-hour to discard surplus electricity and prevent a widespread blackout. Small-scale producers, unlike large vertically integrated energy companies, are at a severe disadvantage without receiving any government operational subsidies. In Greece, according to SPEF (Association of Energy Producers with Photovoltaics), negative prices appeared in the day-ahead market starting May 1, 2025, with some instances reaching as low as -50 euros/MWh. These emergency measures, though costly, have been seen in previous instances, prompting markets to seek alternative solutions through collaborations with neighboring nations to restore grid stability. Nonetheless, it did not prevent a hazardous energy-related incident in Spain a week ago. This situation highlights the difficulties of managing the volatile nature of renewable energy production.
The Predictable Iberian Disruption
When the electrical grid of a major European economy collapses in seconds, blaming technical failure is an insufficient explanation. The most severe power outage in history, the complete collapse of Spain and Portugal’s networks, was triggered by the disconnection between Spain and France, effectively severing the Iberian Peninsula from the rest of the European Union. Despite Spain’s considerable progress in renewable energy installations, the country faced structural weaknesses in its grid. As a result, the connection to France was severed automatically to limit the blackout’s impact there. While some solar, wind, and thermal generation remained operational, Spain’s inability to balance demand through its EU interconnections led to a sudden loss of 15 GW of electricity production within five seconds, affecting even Morocco.
From an energy standpoint, the Iberian Peninsula operates almost as an isolated energy system within the EU. Spain’s grid heavily relies on solar photovoltaics, solar thermal, and wind power, lacking sufficient storage infrastructure (such as batteries) or stabilization mechanisms (such as backup generators). The blackout occurred suddenly, without warning, and was not linked to extreme weather or external factors. The EU’s current energy interconnections cannot guarantee supply security unless supported by strong thermal generators capable of preventing similar incidents. The widespread integration of renewable energy sources into European grids may increase their fragility, raising the risk of instability. Before the EU fully implements its Net-Zero policy, substantial investments are needed to maintain and expand networks, ensuring their reliability and preventing future disruptions.
According to Michael Shellenberger of Environmental Progress, the root cause of the blackout was a lack of inertia, a physical stabilizing force provided by traditional power plants. These plants use large rotating machinery to keep the grid steady during sudden fluctuations. Conventional electrical systems rely on these generators spinning massive metal shafts at thousands of revolutions per minute, generating electricity while simultaneously providing momentum. This rotational mass offers inertia, ensuring a critical buffer in the very first seconds after a disturbance, allowing control systems and operators to respond and contain the issue. Conversely, solar panels and most modern wind turbines rely on electronic converters, which lack physical mass and cannot provide the inertia necessary for stability. Spain’s grid, weakened by this inertia deficit, struggled to manage sudden fluctuations, making it difficult to prevent or mitigate the blackout.
Inertia is not merely a theoretical notion; it is a physical property that expresses an object’s resistance to changes in its motion due to its mass. In the case of energy grids, inertia is provided by large, rotating generators, such as those used in natural gas, coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric power plants. These generators naturally resist sudden frequency changes. On the day of the blackout, approximately 80% of Spain’s electricity came from solar and wind sources, without offering the stabilizing inertia of traditional generators. Unlike older grids designed around rotational mass, Spain’s modern, lightweight network lacked a balancing mechanism, making it impossible to recover from the abrupt drop. Another pressing issue, this time related to economic sustainability, is the high electricity transmission tariffs. The bulk of these fees do not go to power plants but to network operators, which significantly impacts the development of cross-border transmission lines, the absence of independent local hubs, and the difficulty in creating industrial-scale energy storage and backup generators.
Geopolitics of Energy Networks
There is a broader geopolitical trend, as multiple nations reassess their energy strategies. Resilience and security in energy networks have become critical priorities, especially during the EU’s deepening energy crisis. Interdependence among nations shapes modern energy geopolitics, making interconnections vital for stability and supply adequacy. The collapse of the Iberian grid highlighted the existence of “isolated energy islands” within Europe, such as Cyprus, which remains disconnected from the EU’s mainland grid, as well as Greece. This underscores the urgent need for investments in grid expansion, maintenance, and the creation of new interconnections to enhance energy security and reduce the risk of power disruptions.
Regarding Northern Europe, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity recently published a study conducted under EU regulation by transmission system operators from Central Europe and the Nordic Zone. The study aimed to maximize economic efficiency and cross-zone trading opportunities while maintaining supply security. However, as noted in earlier analyses, interconnections in Southeastern Europe remain pending for the GIS and GREGY power interconnection projects between Israel, Cyprus, and Greece and that between Egypt and Greece.
Turkey is advancing a new power interconnection between the EU and the Caucasus, leveraging its geographic and political advantages in the Southeastern Mediterranean. A four-party agreement on electricity transmission at Europe’s southeastern borders was signed in Baku. The energy ministries of Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan agreed to promote this commercial electricity project, known as the “Green Electricity Transmission and Trade Project.” With the signing of a memorandum of understanding in early April, the parties committed to launching an electricity corridor linking the Caspian Sea to the Balkans of the European Union. This initiative aligns with broader EU efforts to diversify energy sources and strengthen regional energy security. Turkey’s move presents an alternative strategy to the energy projects of its competitors—Greece, Israel, and Cyprus. Interestingly, the EU recently expressed support for the GREGY project while deprioritizing GIS.
Across the Atlantic, Canada is moving away from energy interdependence with the United States, backed by broad political consensus. With the third-largest proven oil reserves after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, its oil industry is quietly experiencing sustained growth, a trend that supports greater autonomy, energy independence, and supply security. The country is also exploring its potential as an energy superpower through LNG exports via the Pacific Ocean, the expansion of hydroelectric plants along the eastern coast, and the development of critical minerals both on land and offshore. China has developed technologies capable of intervening in subsea cables, including tools that can sever cables at depths of 4,000 meters, far beyond the operational range of most existing infrastructure. These advancements underscore the growing role of maritime infrastructure in global energy geopolitics, communications, and security.
The Dual Nature of Energy Interconnectivity
As energy networks grow more interconnected, grid connections extend beyond technical concerns, shaping cooperation and economic stability while ensuring electricity and fuel distribution. However, they also introduce technical, political, and military vulnerabilities within critical infrastructure. Renewable energy integration, while advancing sustainability, challenges grid stability. Unlike fossil fuel or nuclear plants that provide steady baseload power, solar and wind fluctuate, demanding advanced storage and balancing mechanisms. Transmission networks face cybersecurity risks, with hostile actors capable of disrupting operations. Further, countries controlling major energy networks are shaping supply access, pricing, and infrastructure investments, often through pipeline diplomacy, where energy transit agreements either strengthen alliances or spark disputes.
Energy interconnectivity is a double-edged sword—while it enhances global stability and cooperation, it also exposes critical infrastructure to significant risks, from technical failures to geopolitical vulnerabilities.
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