Africa-Press – Eswatini. Eswatini has three months to come up with mitigation strategies to prevent adverse effects of the predicted El Nino, which is expected to hit the country in November.
El Nino is historically associated with record heat temperatures and droughts in summer rainfall regions of southern Africa. Unpacking the El Nino update, Meteorologist Climate Change Monitoring Lucky Sigudla said indicators showed that the country was heading towards a strong El Nino event. This, he said, was supported by the predictions from the dynamic climate models. Sigudla said the impacts of the El Nino impacted differently on different sectors. He said impacts of the El Nino were expected to show around November going forward in Eswatini and normally they included reduced rainfall.
Rainfall
“It is important to note that the presence of El Nino does not always indicate that the country will receive below average rainfall although it is normally the case,” Sigudla said. He stated that in 2015/16, the country was hit by a severe El Nino, which took place for over two consecutive seasons and the impacts were felt in the second season. According to Sigudla, the thresholds were the one which determined how strong the El Nino would become.
“If temperatures in the Tropical Pacific are above by 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius, it is described as a weak El Nino. From 1 degree to 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, it is mild and anything above 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, it is a strong El Nino.” These, he said, did not in any way relate to the impacts of the El Nino event. Sigudla said the impacts become severe when it happens in an elongated period of time, especially in two consecutive seasons. He stated that a slight indication on the severity could show up around December on what could be expected in 2024.
National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Russell Dlamini said three months was more than enough to prepare.
Dlamini said following the good rains, which had been received, it meant that the steps that would be taken during the early action would work at the country’s advantage. According to Dlamini, the country could still do more to minimise the impact of the El Nino, adding that in the last drought, the country lost a number of livestock, something that could be prevented. He said the planning was to avert a similar situation from happening. The CEO said farmers should start preparing now on whether they have enough grazing lands and food or reduce the livestock.
He said the Ministry of Agriculture had made an exceptional job by assisting livestock farmers to sell some of their livestock to prevent any losses.
The CEO said an advisory was issued which worked as a guide for the country. The CEO said before the end of the month, they would issue a plan which was expected to be approved by government and be shared with the nation.
Challenge
Dlamini said funds were a challenge for the country, adding that in 2015/16 when the plan was launched, it was accompanied by the funds. Furthermore, he said UN agencies and development partners were also able to unlock disaster funds to assist the country. Meanwhile, he said the challenge on preparedness for disaster when it came to funding was that most countries waited until it was declared.
Dlamini stated that the ongoing workshop was the first among many to come in the future to assist the country in terms of preparedness for the El Nino. He said various stakeholders had been roped in to make an input following the report by Eswatini Meteorological Service on the El Nino update. The CEO said they would be comparing with the 2015/16 El Nino on what happened and how it was addressed. Lastly, he said they were intending in future to come up with a plan that would be approved by government, which would be used by the country.
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