Africa-Press – Gambia. Ultimately, we need to score more goals. That’s very clear.”
It is rare for Eddie Howe to publicly divulge transfer plans but, by April, even the usually guarded head coach could not avoid disclosing what Newcastle United’s priority would be this summer.
While Howe oversaw a drastic improvement in Newcastle’s defensive record, their lack of firepower makes their 2022 form so far unsustainable in the long run.
In 27 Premier League matches under Howe, Newcastle have scored 32 goals — less than 1.2 per game — from an expected goal (xG) return of 33.7. Since Howe arrived in November, no player has scored more than Bruno Guimaraes, who has confounded expectations in terms of his finishing prowess by contributing five goals. Beyond Guimaraes, only Callum Wilson (four), Joelinton (four) and Allan Saint-Maximin (three) have scored three times or more under Howe. Chris Wood, a £25 million mid-campaign arrival from Burnley, only managed two goals from an xG of 3.4.
Of course, those statistics are skewed by Wilson’s five-month absence with an achilles problem. Across the season, he scored eight times, including twice against Burnley on the final day, which followed an excellent all-round display against Arsenal. Those two appearances highlighted the difference Wilson makes when he plays but, given the 30-year-old has missed 42 per cent of the past two seasons due to injury, he cannot be relied upon to lead the line throughout a whole campaign.
That is why, although Newcastle have conducted very astute business so far — bringing in Nick Pope, the England goalkeeper, Sven Botman, the highly coveted centre-back, and re-signing Matt Targett, the left-back — they simply cannot countenance ending the summer without attacking additions.
Alongside a right-winger, with Bayer Leverkusen’s Moussa Diaby a key target, and Leeds United’s Jack Harrison and Everton’s Anthony Gordon also admired, acquiring a forward to rival Wood in providing back-up to Wilson is deemed essential. In April, Newcastle were considering signing another out-and-out No 9, but early enquiries for Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Brentford’s Ivan Toney raised figures north of £50 million.
Instead, it was hoped that Hugo Ekitike, the 20-year-old Reims forward, would provide the solution. A transfer was initially agreed in January but collapsed on deadline day, before a deal was reached in late May, only for Newcastle to step back from that transfer last month following what sources describe as “exorbitant” agent demands and with the Frenchman continuing to be touted around European clubs.
As things stand, that deal is deadlocked, with Newcastle moving on to actively exploring alternative targets. It is believed that, ideally, rather than seeking a senior striker to replace Wilson, they are now looking to recruit a younger, versatile forward who can play across the front line and can grow and develop with the club. Armando Broja is understood to be of interest, with Newcastle having asked Chelsea if they can be kept informed of their plans for the Albanian.
With pre-season under way and the first match against Nottingham Forest less than a month away, The Athletic has identified some of the up-and-coming forwards across Europe that Newcastle should perhaps consider.
Due to Ekitike’s lack of top-flight football — he has made just 15 Ligue 1 starts — there is a dearth of data to use the Frenchman as a basis for comparison. Instead, we have focused on the characteristics of Alexander Isak. The 22-year-old Real Sociedad and Sweden forward has been followed for years by Steve Nickson, Newcastle’s head of recruitment, and Isak continues to be mentioned in transfer discussions at St James’ Park, though, like Calvert-Lewin and Toney, his price-tag is proving prohibitive.
So, based on their style on the ball, their contribution to the attack and their positional versatility, we have selected those players who profile similarly to Isak as a more well-established, high-profile young forward than Ekitike. We have only looked at players aged 23 or under across Europe’s top five leagues, plus the Netherlands’ Eredisivie and Portugal’s Primeira Liga.
Perhaps if Ekitike, Isak et al do prove unattainable, one of these may offer a solution to Newcastle’s offensive shortcomings…Armando Broja (Chelsea)
First, let us consider Broja, who Newcastle, alongside other Premier League clubs, are monitoring this summer. Chelsea are still deciding what to do with the 20-year-old, who is thought to be keen to either stay and earn opportunities at Stamford Bridge, or depart permanently, rather than on another loan. For Newcastle, however, an initial loan may be the most desirable option.
Using smarterscout, which gives players a series of ratings from zero to 99 relative to either how often a player performs a given stylistic action or how effective they are at it compared with others in their position, we can obtain a general overview of their natural attributes.
While nominally a centre-forward, operating almost exclusively as a central striker during his season-long loan at Southampton in 2021-22, Broja regularly pulls out wide to receive possession and will often look to carry it forward, with a carry and dribble volume of 84 out of 99, as shown by his pizza chart below. This highlights his directness with the ball, which appealed to Ralph Hasenhuttl, the Southampton manager, whose 4-2-2-2 system relied on getting the ball forward quickly.Although Broja is not necessarily the most active towards his team’s chance creation — his xG from shot creation is 16 out of 99 — his ability to carry the ball and lay on opportunities is more impressive, at 57 out of 99.
Interestingly, Broja’s work out of possession will appeal to Howe, whose revival of Newcastle was led by their off-the-ball endeavour. The Albanian’s defending intensity of 92 highlights his willingness to get tight to his opponent and graft for the team, which means he could contribute to Newcastle’s pressing, while he also regularly competes in the air, with an aerial duels quantity of 93 out of 99, which makes him an ideal alternative to Wilson and Wood, both of whom regularly contest duels off the ground.
Meanwhile, the shot map below shows that Broja is most likely to take decent-quality shots. For Southampton, he attempted 45 in the league across 2,079 minutes, all of them almost exclusively within the area, with a good xG per shot of 0.14. That means the average quality of a given shot he takes has a 14 per cent chance of resulting in a goal.
With his goal tally of six — 0.27 per 90 — almost matching his xG of 6.1, or 0.28 per 90, it suggests that Broja does tend to put away good opportunities when presented with them, meaning he could be a solid back-up option to Wilson.Ultimately as a versatile option who already has some Premier League experience, but still has significant potential to improve, Broja makes sense.
In many ways, Broja would represent less of a gamble than Ekitike, too, given the Frenchman has yet to play in England and has really only had half a season in Europe’s top five leagues. Yet whether Newcastle are willing to pay the necessary fee to sign Broja permanently, should a loan prove unworkable, is questionable. A loan with an option or obligation to buy may yet turn into an attractive option for all parties, though.
Amine Gouiri (Nice)
Another player who it is understood that Newcastle’s scouting team have taken a keen interest in is Gouiri, the 22-year-old Nice forward, who has admirers across Europe.
His position map below shows his flexibility, with the France under-21 international playing 66 per cent of his 2,805 Ligue 1 minutes last season as a central striker, 24 per cent of them wide on the left and three per cent on the right in Nice’s 4-4-2 formation. That would mean that, even if Wilson was fit, Gouiri could be slotted into Howe’s 4-3-3 system. A right-winger is also being sought this summer but, if only one attacker was to arrive, in theory Gouiri could play there because, even if he is more experienced on the left, that is Saint-Maximin’s preferred position.The right-footed forward can drift in from the left when played out wide and he is skilful and progressive with the ball, with a carry and dribble volume of 62 out of 99, as his smarterscout pizza chart displays.
Howe’s Newcastle have often looked to get the ball upfield quickly and Gouiri would complement that style, with his progressive passing standing at 79 out of 99. His xG from ball progression is also 73 out of 99, showing how well he gets the ball into advanced, dangerous areas.When it comes to aerial duels quantity (14 out of 99) and defending intensity (63 out of 99), Gouiri ranks lower than Broja, although he does hold the ball up well (ball retention ability of 68 out of 99) and his ball recoveries and interceptions stand at 73 out of 99, showing he does work out of possession.
His shot map below reflects how Gouiri often operates from the left, with a greater portion of his efforts taking place from the left-hand side of the box. The red dots highlight that, understandably, he scores more often when shooting from more central areas.From 65 shots last season, Gouiri scored seven goals, which was below his xG of 8.5. However, an xG per shot of 0.12 is decent and suggests he could ease Wilson’s scoring burden a little.
Unlike Broja, Gouiri is less of an out-and-out striker and would instead be a more versatile forward option who could play anywhere across the front line. Lucien Favre, the Nice head coach, insists that Gouiri is not for sale, however, and it would cost a significant fee to extract the Frenchman.
Jonathan Burkardt (Mainz)
A youthful forward who is creating excitement in the Bundesliga — and who could be facing Newcastle on Monday, July 18, in a pre-season friendly in Austria — Burkardt has already scored 10 goals in just 20 Germany under-21 appearances.
As the graphic below shows, the 21-year-old tends to operate through the middle, with 69 per cent of his 2,698 Bundesliga minutes last season as a striker and 30 per cent as an attacking midfielder. Howe has rarely deployed a No 10 at Newcastle, but Burkardt could play instead of Wilson, or just off him, because he occasionally featured there in Mainz’s 3-5-2 system.Stylistically, Burkardt is an active carrier of the ball, with a carry and dribble volume of 79 out of 99. Encouragingly, his attacking metrics look favourable when it comes to contributing towards his team’s chances, with his xG from shot creation standing at 57 out of 99.
The German tends to operate in and around the area, with his receptions in the box ranking at 69 out of 99, while he is also keen to get shots away quickly per attacking touch, with a shot volume of 74 out of 99.
Again, he is not quite as aggressive as Broja when pressing, with his defending intensity at 49 out of 99 being about average for a player in his position, although his defending impact (57 out of 99) and ball recoveries and interceptions (53 out of 99) are decent.When it comes to his shot map, Burkardt tends to unleash most of his efforts from inside the area.
From 76 shots and an xG of 13.2, Burkardt scored 10 non-penalty goals for Mainz. But, while he undershot his overall xG by more than three goals, his xG per shot of 0.17 shows his efforts came from good locations, which is encouraging.Although Burkardt may be relatively unknown to many Premier League observers, it seems he has the component parts to potentially develop into a very useful forward.
Musa Barrow (Bologna)
The oldest of the potential players identified, Barrow has been linked with Fulham and the 23-year-old is a versatile forward who can play anywhere across the front line.
As his position map below shows, the majority of his 2,171 Serie A minutes came as a centre-forward (55 per cent), but he also operated as an attacking midfielder (31 per cent) and a left-winger (13 per cent).Still, with just six goals in 34 league appearances for Bologna, he is hardly prolific. However, his adaptability is a desirable feature, while the fact he contributed six assists means he did have 12 goals involvements in all, which is a decent return and shows he is a bit more of an all-rounder.
Already capped 28 times by Gambia, the former Atalanta forward’s pizza chart highlights that he is not a massive attacking threat in terms of goals (he scores 30 out of 99 for shot volume), and is certainly not a poacher-style striker, ranking at just five out of 99 for receptions in the box. However, he is very keen to get the ball forward, with a very high score of 97 out of 99 for progressive passing, and a decent carry and dribble volume (54 out of 99).His ball retention of 56 out of 99 is also notable, given Howe likes his striker to be able to hold possession, which is one of the primary reasons Wood was signed. Barrow also scores highly (89 out of 99) for ball recoveries and interceptions, something Howe likes to see from his forwards, too.
When it comes to his shot map (below), Barrow unleashes efforts from outside the area far more regularly than the others on this list. It is perhaps unsurprising, then, that his xG per shot of 0.08 is also the lowest among the players identified — although he did marginally outperform his xG of 5.4 by scoring six times.In truth, Barrow is probably the least attractive of the options identified, due to his age and his relatively poor scoring record. He is someone who Newcastle had watched previously, however, and may prove to be a forward who could be signed for a relatively cheap price late in the window if they fail to land anyone else.
Regardless, attacking reinforcements are certainly required before the end of the summer. Newcastle recognise that, if Ekitike cannot be signed, then at least one other forward must arrive.
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