Africa-Press – Gambia. A prominent political analyst has argued that the United Democratic Party, the country’s largest opposition group, should not be expected to surrender the presidential flag-bearer position in any potential coalition ahead of the 2026 election.
Biran Gai, a political science lecturer at the University of The Gambia, said the arithmetic of opposition politics makes such an expectation unrealistic.
“That is impossible,” Mr. Gai said in an interview. “You need to analyze the opposition and what they have to bring to the table. All these need to be put into perspective. You do not expect a party that won 0.001 percent of the vote to be given the flag-bearership of the opposition.”
He said any coalition effort must be “objective, constructive, and rational,” adding that meaningful cooperation is possible only if opposition parties share a clear conviction that political change is needed.
Mr. Gai warned that a fragmented opposition would be President Adama Barrow’s greatest advantage in 2026. “Once they are divided, that is a win for the NPP,” he said, referring to the National People’s Party.
He emphasized that the opposition cannot unseat Mr. Barrow without the UDP’s electoral strength. “Without the UDP, there would be no change,” he said.
Some opposition figures have suggested they could defeat the incumbent even without forming a coalition, pointing to their combined gains in recent parliamentary and local government elections. Mr. Gai dismissed that reasoning, arguing that national dynamics differ significantly from local contests.
“They can say that, but the dynamics for parliamentary elections are different from the presidential election. Voting in parliamentary elections may not necessarily be along partisan lines, but it could also be that they identify with the individual. That dynamic also exists,” he said.
Although Mr. Barrow’s popularity has waned amid public frustration over the country’s economic conditions, Mr. Gai questioned whether economic dissatisfaction alone determines voting behavior in The Gambia.
“Do we vote based on the fact that the economy is not doing well, or do we vote on issues, personalities, or partisan basics?” he asked. “For me, I would say it is based on personality and partisan basis, and that is why it makes it difficult to predict change.”
He added that the 2016 election—when Mr. Barrow rose to power at the head of a broad opposition coalition—was exceptional. After nearly eight years in office, he said, the president has become firmly entrenched, and dislodging him would require a similarly unified political front.
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