Africa-Press – Ghana. The rules of the next century are being written now, argues Darlington Tshuma. Africa must be an active participant in these discussions.
Antonio Gramsci once described moments of political rupture as “interregnums”—periods when the old world is dying, and the new struggles to be born. That is where we are now. The current global order was built in the aftermath of World War II. It was anchored in multilateral institutions built around Western dominance. But this global architecture is now losing legitimacy and coherence. What will replace it, and can Africa help shape what comes next?
The rise of multipolarity
For decades, the international system has oscillated between unipolarity, where the US stood unrivalled, and bipolarity, defined by Cold War rivalries. Today, the world is moving towards multipolarity, where power is dispersed among many actors, such as China, India, Brazil, Russia, the European Union (EU), and emerging powers in the Middle East and Africa. This shift is not just about power; it’s about legitimacy.
The current global architecture was built when most African countries were still under colonial rule and remains steeped in Eurocentric logic. Its financial and security structures continue to reproduce hierarchies that marginalise the Global South. From the IMF’s voting quotas to the UN Security Council’s permanent members, the system reflects the world as it was in the 1950s. Meanwhile, Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza, the conflicts in Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan, and the ongoing crises in the Sahel and Horn of Africa are symptomatic of the dysfunction of the current order. This is laid bare in the contested authority across global governance domains from human rights, conflict prevention, disarmament, trade and technology, climate action, and environmental protection.
Multilateralism, the principle of collective problem-solving, has given way to transactionalism, where “peace through strength” replaces dialogue and compromise.
Africa’s quiet diplomacy
Amid this uncertainty, Africa is quietly rewriting the rules of diplomacy and engagement. The continent’s expanding role in multilateral diplomacy shows that it is no longer content to be a passive rule-taker. A case in point: African countries championed the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UN Tax Convention)—a landmark initiative to curb illicit financial flows that drain the continent of nearly £68 billion annually. While many Western countries opposed or abstained, China and Russia backed the African-led proposal, positioning themselves as partners in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape.
This was not a one-off. Africa’s leadership in creating the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), South Africa’s chairmanship of the G20, and efforts by African mediators to address the Russia–Ukraine conflict all point to a continent seeking to redefine its global role, not as a pawn, but as a player. While the African peace initiative failed to gain traction, it symbolised something important: Africa’s neutrality and credibility in an increasingly polarised world. That neutrality, if harnessed strategically, could make the continent an indispensable broker in global diplomacy.
The AU’s unfinished project
But before Africa can lead globally, it must get its own house in order. Today, the African Union faces a legitimacy and capacity crisis. Reforms launched under Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and President Paul Kagame aimed to reduce dependency on external financing and strengthen the AU’s ability to act independently. Yet, in 2024, over 70 per cent of its budget still came from foreign donors.
The AU Peace Fund, envisioned as a symbol of self-reliance, remains chronically underfunded. This dependency constrains the AU’s ability to set its own priorities, respond to crises and speak with one voice on the world stage. The principle of subsidiarity, meant to empower regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States and the Southern African Development Community, has instead become a tool for political deflection, allowing member states to shield themselves from continental scrutiny.
If Africa wants to shape a new world order, it must start by strengthening its internal coherence—politically, financially, and institutionally.
A new global compact
The erosion of global Western dominance offers Africa an opening to assert strategic autonomy. It can leverage three megatrends to redefine Africa’s place in the world.
First, Africa’s economic potential. Despite sluggish growth post-Covid, African economies continue to outperform other regions of the world, reinforcing the continent’s status as the next global growth frontier. Its digital economy could reach £45 billion by 2050, driven by mobile connectivity and innovation ecosystems. To benefit, African countries must move beyond exporting raw materials and instead leverage their critical and rare earth mineral reserves, including cobalt, lithium, graphite, to attract investment in value-added industries, digital infrastructure, and renewable energy. A focus on regional value chains will unlock vast economic opportunities and create millions of quality jobs. Specifically, empowering the AU and regional blocs with stronger negotiation mandates, especially on trade and resource governance, would help Africa avoid being squeezed between global competitors.
Second, Africa’s demographic power. By 2050, Africa’s population will reach 2.5 billion, with 40 per cent of the world’s workforce. This demographic shift positions Africa not only as a major labour reservoir but also as a vast consumer market, a hub of innovation, and a determinant of global demand patterns. In a context of great power competition, Africa’s demographic weight can serve as leverage to negotiate fairer terms in trade, investment, technology transfer, and skills development.
Third, security and sovereignty. External powers from the US, the EU to China and the Gulf are expanding their military footprints in Africa under the guise of economic and security cooperation. To avoid becoming an arena of proxy competition, African countries must negotiate security partnerships collectively, under AU and RECs oversight, ensuring such partnerships serve African, not external interests.
As a new order struggles to consolidate, Africa’s immediate and strategic task is not to choose sides but to set the terms of engagement. It must insist on genuine partnerships rooted in mutual benefit, not dependency. However, this requires courage from leaders, creativity from institutions, and confidence in Africa’s collective agency. In Gramscian terminology, a new global order is still being written, and whether Africa shapes it—or is shaped by it will depend on the choices it makes now.
LSE
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