Africa-Press – Kenya. An estimated half of Kenyans expect the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) to exit the broad-based government and return to the opposition by the time of the 2027 General Elections, according to a new survey by TIFA Research.
The research has drawn doubts over the durability of the political pact between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
The poll shows that 50 per cent of respondents believe ODM will return to the opposition, while 30 per cent expect the party to remain in the broad-based government (BBG) alongside the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
A further 20 per cent said they were unsure, highlighting continued uncertainty about ODM’s long-term political direction.
Expectations vary sharply along party lines, however.
Among supporters of opposition-leaning parties, a decisive majority believe ODM will eventually leave government.
“80 per cent of Democratic for the Citizens Party (DCP) supporters, 75 per cent of Wiper supporters, and 71 per cent of Jubilee supporters expect ODM to rejoin the opposition,” the poll shows.
Within ODM’s own base, however, opinion is split.
While 50 per cent of ODM supporters expect a return to opposition, a significant 38 per cent believe the party will stay in the Broad based agreement, reflecting internal ambivalence over the cooperation arrangement with President Ruto’s administration.
Among UDA supporters, perceptions tilt in the opposite direction.
46 per cent expect ODM to remain in government, compared to 36 per cent who believe it will return to the opposition, suggesting ruling party supporters are more confident the alliance will hold.
ODM entered the broad-based government following months of nationwide protests over the cost of living and governance concerns, a move its leadership framed as a step toward national stability and reform.
The TIFA findings suggest that while the BBG may be holding for now, the majority of Kenyans view it as a temporary political truce rather than a permanent realignment.
That uncertainty is reinforced by a separate TIFA poll on the prospects of opposition unity in 2027.
The survey found that only 38 per cent of Kenyans believe opposition leaders are likely to unite behind a single presidential candidate, while 26 per cent think such unity is unlikely and 27 per cent say it is only somewhat likely.
Notably, respondents who oppose the broad-based government were more optimistic about opposition unity, with 45 per cent saying it is very likely, compared to 33 per cent among those who support the BBG.
Taken together, the polls paint a picture of a fluid and unsettled political landscape.
While many Kenyans expect ODM to reclaim its opposition role before 2027, doubts persist over whether opposition forces can overcome historical divisions to mount a united challenge.
As the election cycle approaches, ODM’s final positioning—and whether it catalyses broader opposition unity—is likely to remain a defining question in Kenya’s evolving political equation.
