Africa-Press – Kenya. 2026 is poised to be a pivotal year for democracy on the African continent, with a significant number of general elections scheduled that carry geopolitical and economic implications for regional anchor states like Kenya.
Nairobi, strategically positioned as an East African hub for trade and diplomacy, will feel the ripple effects of these electoral contests, particularly in its immediate neighbourhood.
Kenya’s foreign policy is intrinsically linked to its neighbourhood’s stability, driven by its ambition to be the regional financial and technology powerhouse.
Kenya’s economic strategy, often dubbed “economic diplomacy,” relies on the regional market. Disruptions from electoral violence or protracted political crises in neighbouring states directly undermine the EAC and COMESA trade blocs.
Kenya often plays a leading role in regional peace and security initiatives, as seen in its past efforts in South Sudan and the DRC. Elections that result in contested outcomes or internal conflict will inevitably draw on Kenya’s diplomatic capital and potentially its security resources for peacekeeping or mediation efforts, placing a strain on its foreign policy bandwidth.
Political upheavals in neighbouring countries—especially Uganda, Ethiopia, and South Sudan—carry the immediate risk of a surge in cross-border migration. This places significant humanitarian and logistical pressure on Kenya’s border counties and its national resources.
Several polls stand out due to their potential to either consolidate stability or unleash political volatility, directly affecting Kenya’s security and economic interests.
Uganda’s General Election (January 15, 2026)
As a direct neighbour and a crucial trade partner within the East African Community (EAC), the stability of Uganda is paramount to Kenya.
The election, that features incumbent, President Yoweri Museveni, presents a high-stakes scenario.
Analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) point to rising authoritarian tactics, which may lead to escalated political tension, which has already been witnessed even with the ongoing campaigns.
The opposition accuses the state of using the military to undermine their activities.
Instability in Uganda often disrupts the Northern Corridor, the vital trade route connecting the port of Mombasa to the Great Lakes region. Any significant political unrest could lead to supply chain bottlenecks, increased transit costs, and a drop in port revenue for Kenya.
Ethiopia’s General Election (June 1, 2026)
Ethiopia, a major economic and security player in the Horn of Africa, is slated for a general election.
The outcome will be critical for regional stability.
Kenya and Ethiopia share strategic interests, particularly in counter-terrorism and the development of the Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia–Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor.
A stable post-election environment is essential for the security of their shared border and the progress of massive infrastructure projects intended to transform regional trade. Political turbulence in Addis Ababa could dampen investor confidence in the entire Horn of Africa, a region where Kenya actively pursues economic diplomacy.
Zambia’s General Election (August 13, 2026)
While geographically more distant, Zambia’s election is important as it reflects broader democratic trends and shifts in economic policy in Southern Africa.
Nairobi is actively seeking to expand its financial and corporate footprint across the continent.
The political and economic direction taken by a post-2026 Zambian government will influence the operating environment for Kenyan firms (especially in banking and telecommunications) looking to invest in Southern Africa.
A successful, peaceful transition bolsters the narrative of a democratic, investment-friendly continent.
Djibouti elections (April 2026)
Presidential elections will be held in Djibouti by April 2026. The exact date remains unknown.
In late October 2025, the parliament of Djibouti unanimously voted to remove the constitutional age cap for presidential candidates — previously set at 75 years.
This change effectively clears the way for current president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, aged 77, to run again.
South Sudan elections (December 22, 2026)
The National Elections Commission of South Sudan (NEC) schedules the next national general election for December 22, 2026.
This will be the country’s first-ever national election since independence in 2011.
After independence, elections were initially due by mid-2015 but have been repeatedly postponed (2015 → 2018 → 2021 → 2023 → 2024) due to civil war, institutional weakness, and failure to implement key prerequisites.
The vote will cover presidential, legislative (national and sub-national), and other levels as per the current transitional constitutional framework.
Cape Verde elections (October 2026)
In 2026, Cape Verde is scheduled to hold both parliamentary and presidential elections.
The parliamentary election will contest all 72 seats in its National Assembly using a closed-list proportional-representation system.
Meanwhile, the presidential election is planned for October 2026.
The political context features a split between the governing Movement for Democracy (MpD), which currently leads the government, and the main opposition African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde (PAICV).
Republic of the Congo elections (Congo-Brazzaville) (March 2026)
The Republic of the Congo is set to hold its presidential election on March 22, 2026, following a decree from the Interior Ministry.
Ahead of the vote, the national voter register is being revised between 1 September and 30 October 2025, an effort aimed at updating the electoral rolls and removing outdated entries.
The incumbent, Denis Sassou Nguesso — in power since 1997 (and previously from 1979–1992) — has confirmed he will stand again.
In 2015, a constitutional referendum removed the previous age limit for presidential candidates, allowing Sassou Nguesso — now in his eighties — to remain eligible.
Source: The Star
