Analysis of the AFORD-DPP Alliance’s Stability

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Analysis of the AFORD-DPP Alliance's Stability
Analysis of the AFORD-DPP Alliance's Stability

Africa-Press – Malawi. There’s smoke in the blue tent—and it’s not incense. The AFORD–DPP alliance, once hailed as a tactical masterstroke, is now looking more like a political time bomb counting down in broad daylight. The recent remarks from AFORD president Enoch Chihana and his secretary general have torn off the veil: this marriage is in crisis, and the honeymoon is long over.

Chihana is playing his cards like a seasoned poker shark—measured, calculating, but dangerous when cornered. He knows exactly what he was promised, and his media outbursts are not random tantrums; they are deliberate detonations. Every statement is a coded threat: “Give me what you promised, or I blow the bridge.”

Inside the DPP camp, the silence is deafening. Cadets are fuming on the sidelines, throwing stones from the shadows: “If Chihana refuses the ministerial post, let him go. DPP won on its own!”

That’s the kind of false confidence that precedes collapse. The truth is, DPP needs Chihana more than it admits. The alliance was built not on love, but on political arithmetic—and now the numbers are turning toxic.

Let’s be clear: Chihana is no pushover. He’s not one of those politicians who survive on borrowed fame or presidential sympathy. He’s a fighter, a survivor, a political street OG who has learned to thrive in chaos. If anyone doubts that, just ask Billy Kaunda or anyone who tried to outmaneuver him in the North. Chihana doesn’t play fair—he plays to win.

This is why DPP should be worried. Chihana understands that a short-lived ministerial post is political dust—it’s gone before it shines. But a Vice-Presidential slot? That’s power, visibility, and long-term insurance. He knows APM’s age is catching up, and should that seat fall vacant, the blue chessboard could flip overnight.

There’s also the Northern factor. Chihana is no fool; he knows how to weaponize regional sympathy. DPP has never delivered tangible development to the North, and that grievance runs deep. If Chihana walks away, he doesn’t just leave an alliance—he takes with him the fragile northern bridge DPP desperately needs. In one move, he could tilt the entire national balance.

And make no mistake: this isn’t just negotiation—it’s psychological warfare. By endorsing his cousin Yeremia to take over his constituency, Chihana has already secured his home base. He’s freeing himself for a national game while DPP is still busy counting ministerial chairs. The man is five moves ahead.

This alliance, once branded as the “Blue Revolution,” is starting to look more like a “Blue Implosion.” What’s unfolding is not politics as usual—it’s survival of the most cunning. Chihana’s endgame is clear: either he gets his promised position, or he burns the alliance down and walks away with the North behind him.

The real question is—does DPP have the courage and intellect to play at his level? Because this isn’t a handshake deal anymore; it’s a showdown in Little Tokyo, and Chihana is loading his arsenal in plain sight.

Get your popcorn ready, Malawi. The AFORD–DPP alliance is entering its first lab test, and the results may just redraw the country’s political map.

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