Africa-Press – Malawi. Unofficial results trickling in from across Malawi’s voting districts suggest that former President Arthur Peter Mutharika (APM) has taken a considerable lead in the 2025 polls, with tallies showing him performing strongly both in his traditional bases and in areas historically loyal to Malawi Congress Party (MCP) leader Lazarus Chakwera.
Preliminary counts indicate that Mutharika has dominated the Southern Region, sweeping districts such as Thyolo, Mulanje, Phalombe, Zomba, Mangochi, Salima, Nkhata Bay, and Ntcheu. In several of these districts, early figures show him winning by wide margins, with vote shares ranging between 65–80%.
More striking, however, are his inroads into MCP strongholds in the Central and Northern Regions. Unofficial tallies suggest that Mutharika is gaining ground in Kasungu, Dedza, Karonga, Mzimba, and even Mzuzu City, areas where MCP previously enjoyed dominance. In parts of Kasungu, for example, he is trailing Chakwera by narrow margins of 48% to 50%, compared to the commanding leads MCP registered in 2019.
In urban centers, Mutharika is performing even better. Early results from Blantyre, Zomba, Lilongwe City, and Mzuzu show him leading significantly, a trend analysts say is being driven by high youth turnout and urban frustration with the governing MCP.
Chakwera’s traditional bastions—Ntchisi, Lilongwe Rural, Dowa, and Mchinji—are yet to be fully tallied. But the partial results released so far suggest slimmer margins than expected. In Lilongwe Rural, for instance, Chakwera is leading with about 54% against APM’s 42%, a narrower gap than in previous elections.
Political commentator Joshua Chisa Mbele says the trend points to a decisive shift:
“Mutharika returns to State House. This time, it’s with a decisive mandate. His numbers are simply magical. MCP is failing to double its victory over the DPP candidate. The North has fallen. The Central Region is infected. It’s blue.”
Mbele singled out Salima District as the barometer for this election. Traditionally an MCP stronghold, Salima’s tilt toward APM is being seen as a warning sign for MCP’s broader hold over the Central Region.
If these unofficial results are confirmed, analysts argue that Mutharika will have managed not only to solidify his Southern Region dominance but also to make significant dents in Chakwera’s backyard, giving him a nationally balanced victory.
With the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) yet to announce official results, all eyes are on the remaining tallies from Chakwera’s strongholds. But from the trend so far, APM’s considerable lead looks increasingly difficult to overturn.
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