Africa-Press – Mauritius. How is Russia’s war against Ukraine going to end? Will Ukraine win, and how do we define a Ukrainian victory? Will Russia prevail, and if so, what will it have gained? Is there any hope for a negotiated settlement?
In June 2021 just prior to the NATO summit, President Putin said the West will not be allowed to cross Russia’s “red lines”—and if it does, Russia will respond “harshly, quickly and asymmetrically.
” But what red lines? Essentially, that Ukraine must not be allowed a path to NATO membership. The US and European NATO countries ignored this declaration of Putin’s red lines.
They repeated the mantra that application for membership in NATO is a decision for each country to make and for all NATO members to agree. In November 2021, Putin warned NATO against deploying its troops and weapons to Ukraine.
Once more, he said this was a red line for Russia and would trigger a strong response. Putin complained that NATO’s expansion to the east threatens Russia’s core security interests.
And he lamented that NATO missiles deployed from Ukrainian territory could reach Moscow in five minutes. “The emergence of such threats represents a red line for us,” Putin said.
“I hope that it will not get to that and common sense and responsibility for their own countries and the global community will eventually prevail.
” Repeating his frequent brags, he said that Russia’s development of new hypersonic weapons was a response to these growing threats.
As Russia’s buildup of troops along the Ukrainian border presaged an invasion, President Biden threatened that Russia would face swift and severe costs if it invaded Ukraine.
As we know, Biden had two conversations with Putin during which he threatened the imposition of severe sanctions if Russia invaded Ukraine and that he also stated publicly that a “minor incursion” would not invite such sanctions and that the US would not send its troops into Ukraine or engage Russia’s forces.
These were more highlights with a yellow marker than red lines drawn by a President. Now, it is four and one-half months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we are back to talking about red lines.
About ten days ago, the anchor on a Russian TV channel known to broadcast the Kremlin’s propaganda, warned that if the US were to supply Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) “they will clearly be crossing a red line and we would have witnessed an attempt to provoke a very harsh response from Russia.
Putting aside either a case of poor translation from Russian to English, and also putting aside Russian paranoia about President Biden’s intentions, it is clear that Biden has striven to avoid confrontation with Putin.
But perhaps therein lies the problem. As President Zelensky calls for more offensive weapons to defend his country, Putin escalates the bombing and shelling. The US and NATO, while professing support for Ukraine, play the reluctant savior. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being pummeled and destroyed, bit by bit.
President Biden says that the United States does not plan to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles for potential damage to Russian territory: “I will not send anything that can be used to shell Russia,” Biden said when asked if he planned to send long-range missiles to Ukraine.
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