Anil Madan
Africa-Press – Mauritius. When the world’s five great nuclear powers, the US, USSR, Britain, France, and China, arrogated to themselves the right to be the only nuclear powers in the world, the scheme was doomed to fail.
It became readily apparent that if Mainland China were to be a nuclear power, India could not stand by. And if India were to be armed with nukes, Pakistan could not stand by. Hemmed in by its Arab neighbours who had declared it their aim to destroy the Jewish state, Israel could not stand by.
So it was that in due course, India and Pakistan became nuclear states and Israel as well despite the lack of an official acknowledgment of membership in the society of nations with nukes.
Living dangerously with nuclear weapons in the world’s hot spots.
Pic – The Japan Times South Africa disassembled its nuclear arsenal before it joined the NPT or Non-Proliferation Treaty. Brazil had a program for the development of nuclear weapons but aborted it.
Whether Brazil had nuclear weapons is now a moot point, but it certainly has the technology. North Korea has already demonstrated repeatedly that it has nuclear weapons and indeed, brags about having intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering them.
Iran is on the precipice of possessing nuclear weapons if it doesn’t already have them. Aside from South Africa and Brazil, the only other instances of countries voluntarily giving up nuclear arsenals are the former Soviet Republics of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine which transferred their stocks to Russia.
Perhaps the Ukrainians now wish they had not done so, but it is unclear whether Ukraine would have developed the capability of using its nukes on neighbouring Russia.
Iran had agreed to give up developing nuclear weapons. The point is arguable. Certainly, many people in the US and Israel’s leadership believed that the Iran Nuclear Deal was a bad idea from the get-go.
Threats from Iran’s Supreme Leader and his underlings to destroy Israel and wipe it from the face of the earth, give no comfort. North Korea’s Kim Jong Nuke has shown the world that possessing and testing nukes is a way to get attention. What is entirely surprising is that more countries have not developed nuclear arsenals. That may be about to change.
Leaders of countries seem to speak more freely about using nuclear weapons as President Putin and Dmitry Medvedev the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia and who formerly served as both President and Prime Minister of Russia, have done.
Kim Jong Nuke routinely threatens the use of nuclear weapons against South Korea, Japan, and even the US. Pakistan’s leaders have, from time to time, spoken of the inevitability of nuclear conflict with India.
Putin too has boasted of having hypersonic missiles that can defeat Western defenses. Most recently in September, Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman said the kingdom will obtain a nuclear weapon if Iran does so first.
And the Israeli Heritage Minister was suspended by Netanyahu after saying in reply to a question whether Israel might drop an atom bomb on Gaza, that it was one option.
A new round of proliferation
A new round of proliferation is already underway and there are no signs that it can be contained. In February 2023, a year after his invasion of Ukraine, Putin announced that Russia was suspending participation in the new START nuclear arms reduction treaty.
That treaty allows the US and Russia, each to deploy no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and a maximum of 700 long-range missiles and bombers.
Additionally, each can conduct up to 18 inspections of strategic nuclear weapons sites every year to ensure the other is not in breach of the treaty’s limits.
Inspections had been put on hold in 2020 due to the Covid pandemic but talks on a resumption of inspections scheduled to take place in Egypt in November 2022 were postponed by Russia.
While maintaining that he wants to preserve the new START treaty, Putin has insisted that British and French nuclear warheads be included in the total allocated to the US. For Washington, this is a nonstarter. Mind you, neither side needs 1,550 warheads to destroy the other.
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