Africa-Press – Mauritius. In our analysis published in the columns of the Mauritius Times of November 10, relating to the evolution of electoral behavior in Belle Rose-Quatre Bornes, we identified the voting trends in this constituency, which do not differ from findings at the national level.
The main trend observed concerns electoral volatility – the change in the partisan vote from one consultation to another – which has increased from election to election, reaching a record rate in the 2014 legislative elections and which affects the four ‘mainstream’ parties.
The porosity between the communicating vessels that are the PTr and the MSM manifests itself in both directions. As for the relationship between the PMSD and the MMM, after having been favorable to the latter for a long time, it manifested itself in the other direction in a striking way during the legislative elections of 2014.
It is therefore in this context of electoral instability that the December partial takes place. It is true that, since the Government Alliance does not participate, this consultation has no real stake in terms of national policy.
Nevertheless, from an electoral point of view, it is significant for the evaluation of the balance of power in the perspective of the next legislative elections, with in the background the question of pre-electoral alliances or not. It is all the more interesting insofar as the main parties will seek the votes of this partial independently of each other.
In our analysis of November 10, we note in conclusion that the decryption of the results of this partial will give relevant indications on the electoral behavior of the volatile segments of the PTr and the MMM, which we estimate at 15% for the first and 15-20% for the second.
The following summary summarizes the balance of power on the eve of this election and the electoral issues. As such, our methodology is based from an empirical point of view on the analyzed and rectified results as well as on field observation.
Special feature of our working group: we establish our percentages according to those registered on the electoral list — unlike other analysts who opt for the votes cast — in order to account for this significant phenomenon that constitutes abstentionism and thus have finer data relating to the actual representation of political parties.
(I) The balance of power and the issues
In a preliminary way, we can reasonably advance that this partial is announced as a battle engaged by the two real contenders for victory on two separate fronts.
Curiously, the main opponent of the PTr is the Reform Party, while the PMSD and other formations of its periphery are the direct opponents of the MMM.
Whichever of the two — PTr and MMM — recovers the most of their floating voices from 2014 will pass the other at the finish line. The PTr forced to win
This partial is of great importance for the PTr, historical in our opinion.
After the heavy defeat of 2014 when in this constituency she had been disapproved of by half of her electorate in 2010, it is a question of measuring the extent of the result obtained by her candidate.
Our political and statistical analysis leads us to place the electoral potential of the PTr at around 30% of registered voters. Half, or 15% of registered voters, had chosen Alliance Lepep in 2014.
If more than 2/3 of this floating segment returns to the PTr to exceed the 25% necessary for victory (10,000-11,000 votes), this will mean that the PTr is back on track, setting in motion a dynamic aimed at national success in the next legislative elections, with or without an alliance, depending on the circumstances of the moment.
This performance seems possible to us, especially since the intrinsic qualities of the Labor candidate, Arvin Boolell, represent a valuable asset. It should be noted that the sequences during this campaign did not scratch the Labor candidate who knew how to master his speech and his gestures in a dangerous media environment.
However, the major difficulty for Arvin Boolell lies in the “nuisance value” of the moreover particularly combative Reform Party candidate – Roshi Bhadain – who “fishes in the same pond”.
Abstention resulting from a 2014-style demonization campaign could also be an additional hurdle. MMM at a historic turning point The MMM is also at a historic turning point.
Its score, during this consultation, can determine its strategy for the next legislative elections. A low score could lead him to consider an alliance strategy against the majority of his militant base.
Conversely, an interesting result or a clear improvement compared to 2014 would undermine any desire for an alliance. Therefore, in the same way as for the PTr, the question arises of the return of its floats.
For a long time the MMM electorate remained largely loyal to it, and the floating segment chose abstention rather than supporting another party. But, in 2014, the matrix of vote transfers was favorable to other parties.
More than half of his electorate in 2010 had chosen the Alliance Lepep, in particular the PMSD and the ML. We estimate this vote transfer at 15% of registered voters, including 10% in the PMSD and 5% in the ML. To hope for a victory the MMM must, like the PTr, attract 2/3 of this floating fringe as well as its abstaining voters from 2014.
If the electoral potential – hardcore, floating, abstentionist – of the MMM is greater than that of the PTr, on the other hand, it has several competitors on this same ground: the PMSD, the Patriotic Movement (MP) and the parties of the radical left.
Especially since it is a single-member consultation where it is a question of allocating a single seat, the vote cannot be dispersed. Of the four, the PMSD, whose leader is elected from constituency No 18 and leader of the opposition, is the most important competitor, hence the MMM campaign targeting the PMSD as a priority.
More than the victory of the purple candidate Nita Juddoo, the score will be a decisive indicator for the next legislative elections. Indeed at 25% and more of the registered voters (10,000-11,000 votes), the MMM would be on an upward slope and could seriously envisage success in the general elections with allies, or without, in a three or four-way configuration.
At 20% or less, the situation would be quite complicated, with or without an ally. The PMSD intends to show its muscles The participation of the PMSD serves it much more to assess its real strength with a view to negotiations for a future electoral alliance.
According to our estimates, the share of the PMSD in the score of the Alliance Lepep in 2014 in this constituency amounted to 15% of registered voters. If he stays at this level (5000-6000 votes) or if he progresses, then his demands will be higher.
At the risk of jeopardizing any alliance project, because its “bargaining power” will not be reinforced since it has, objectively, only one possible alliance: that with the PTr. An alliance with the MSM is inconceivable. With the MMM this is traditionally unthinkable. The Reform Party is playing its survival
Born from a split in the MSM, the Reform Party – for lack of political maturity – has engaged in an electoral battle lost in advance, because its candidate has no real contribution of its own.
He cannot count on the 15% of the PMSD who will probably remain blue, the 5% of the ML who will largely return to the MMM or to the radical left parties. The Reform Party can only draw from the floating Labor electorate – 15% of registered voters – in competition with the Labor candidate.
This is not going to be easy because by definition the floating, ‘rational’ voter, is inclined to ‘turn around’, to ‘turn over lacaz mama’ when he is not satisfied.
The Reform Party could possibly count on the lowest base of the MSM – i. e. 5% of those registered in No.18 – which would however be tempted to abstain or vote for the MMM candidate to block the Labor Party.
In addition, the campaign sequences with which he is associated – financing of his campaign, awkwardness in speech – are not favorable to him. The absence of a Lepep candidate during this partial does not mean that they are not concerned.
Quite the contrary. Observation on the ground indicates a significant crystallization of the feeling of disappointment of floating voters who had chosen Alliance Lepep in 2014.
The two central themes: the moralization of public life and the “economic miracle”, are not there. -you. So there is very little chance that the Alliance Lepep, without the PMSD in addition, will win the next legislative elections.
So we see no other option than another alliance. The one that seems to us the most feasible, by far, is the one with the MMM. As long as he wants it. And that will depend a lot on the results of this partial.
If the purple candidate wins this election or achieves a very good score then the probability of an MMM going alone to the generals will be much greater.
Also the MSM has no real interest in “helping” the MMM. A Labor victory is not the best scenario for the MSM either. The thread of our reasoning and demonstration leads us to place the other formations at a lower level than the first four.
Indeed, in the case of a single-member ballot, the dispersion towards the “small” parties will be much less than in a multi-member ballot, as is the case in general elections with 3 seats to be filled per constituency.
(II) Forecasts
The scale – seismic – of the electoral volatility of December 2014 explains the great caution in terms of forecasts on the part of the main political observers. However, two trends can be identified from the serious comments.
The first provides for a very high abstention rate of around 35-50% due to the absence of a candidate from the ruling alliance and the holding of this election during the preparation of the end of year celebrations.
year, as political scientist Jocelyn Chan Low explained. The second confers the role of favorite on the Labor candidate in front of the MMM candidate. With regard to abstention, we estimate it, for our part, at a rate of around 25%.
Indeed, the mobilization reinforced by the decisive stakes for the main actors in view of the next legislative elections is likely to boost electoral participation.
As for the results, taking into account an abstention that we estimate at around 10,000 registered on the electoral list, we place the result of the winner at 10,000 – 11,000 votes.
This bar would seem to be within reach of the Labor candidate Arvin Boolell: with his 6,000 votes from the red “hardcore”, he can hope to capture a good part of his electorate having chosen the MSM in 2014.
The number of contestants coveting the MMM floating segment and the purple abstainers from 2014, makes it difficult for the purple novice contestant to reach that winning score.
His score would rather be around 9,000-10,000 votes. As for the candidates from the PMSD and the Reform Party, we count them at around 5,000 and 4,000 votes respectively.
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