Africa-Press – Mauritius. The last decade and a half have given us a reprieve from something that has been part of Mauritian life ever since the beginning of human activity here: serious storms.
And though some sunny optimists are crediting the effects of climate change on the absence of cyclone activity, there is no actual scientific evidence to back up the claim – only the lucky streak of near misses that we’ve enjoyed since ‘Dina’ did significant damage in 2002.
While we’ve basked in our unusually sustained good weather, we’ve been busy developing the island. Since 2002, we have modernized and expanded. Since ‘Dina’ hit land, we have erected Ebene Cybercity, constructed a modern glass-covered airport, expanded electricity grids, built significant road infrastructure and installed a fiberoptic internet network covering most of the island.
Some of it has never been tested by anything more serious than a low intensity perturbation. Given the scientific evidence, I’ve become convinced that as a nation, we have let our guard down and are now sleepwalking into a dreadful situation.
Over the last months I’ve spoken with some of the top Mauritian experts in engineering, infrastructure, weather and disaster management, both on the government payroll and in the private sector, both on the record and off.
The picture that has emerged is scary: in the worst – but statistically not unlikely – scenario, we could lose power for several weeks, the water system could be affected temporarily, food supply chain thrown out of gear, public buildings could be damaged and out of use and the airport – our fastest link with the outside word – could be compromised.
Just as bad, if less immediately visible, our internet communication with the outside world could become blocked, the mainframe computers holding all our data – banking, government social security, etc – could become corrupted.
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society)
Notable findings from the report include:- Greenhouse gases, global surface and sea surface temperature as well as global upper ocean heat content were the highest on record.
Global sea level rose to a new record high in 2015. Tropical cyclones were well above average, overall. There were 101 tropical cyclones total across all ocean basins in 2015, well above the 1981-2010 average of 82 storms.
The Eastern/ Central Pacific had 26 named storms, the most since 1992. The North Atlantic, in contrast, had fewer storms than most years during the last two decades. The Arctic continued to warm; sea ice extent remained low.
It is reasonable to deduce that Mauritius is well overdue for a major cyclonic event, based on the law of statistical probability and irrefutable scientific evidence.
As shown on the table below, ‘Dina’ was the last very intense tropical cyclone (category 4 Saffir- Simpson Scale) which passed at its nearest distance of 50 kms North of Cap-Malheureux; intense cyclone ‘Carol’ passed over Mauritius between Feb 25th to 29th 1960, 56 years ago!
Cyclone ‘Dina’ it would appear from the data available would have exceeded ‘Carol’ in wind velocity, and very likely in its destructive capacity, had it come directly over Mauritius.
It was a near miss! Fortunately its small diameter and eye and the 50 kms distance from Cap-Malheureux spared us the worst? However the toll was heavy, nine fatalities were attributed to the cyclone, five in Rodrigues and four in Mauritius.
There was extensive damage to agriculture and property. Electricity supply was seriously affected, as was the telecommunications sector, including the mobile network, about 25% of the island was without water for several days.
The ‘Université De La Réunion – Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones’ in a case study on ‘Dina’ concludes :- ‘‘2 500 personnes en centres d’hébergements, 180 000 personnes sans eau, 107 000 foyers sans électricité, 13 500 foyers sans téléphone, cellulaire hors-services, rafales de vent à plus de 200 km/h, maisons dévastées, routes emportées, rivières en crues, plantations détruites, le cyclone tropical intense ‘Dina’ a ravagé la Réunion.
‘‘Si Dina était passée 25 km plus au sud lors de son passage au plus près de la Réunion, la vitesse des vents aurait été supérieure de 50 km/h à ce que nous avons observé,’’ analyse Philippe Caroff, chef prévisionniste à la station Météo France du Chaudron.
En clair, notre île a eu beaucoup de chance. Si on se reporte aux valeurs de vent enregistrées on s’aperçoit que l’on aurait pu flirter par endroits avec les 300 km/h.
“Nous avons échappé aux vents les plus violents, confirme Philippe Caroff. La force du vent étant proportionnelle au carré de la vitesse lorsque cette dernière est multipliée par deux, la force est quadruplée”.
Since ‘Dina’, we have had five tropical cyclones and severe depressions in the region, but as mentioned, without any serious damage having been caused.
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