Africa-Press – Mauritius. The MSM is organizing a meeting with members of its youth wing this Saturday at the Sun Trust building in Port-Louis. Pravind Jugnauth would even like to bring together at least 3,000 young people from all the constituencies of the country.
It thus seems clear that this gathering aims to compete with that of the PTr-MMM-PMSD alliance of Mare d’Albert. Will the goal be achieved? We will know more on Saturday.
But beyond the battle of the crowds, it seems above all clear that the various teams are beginning to mobilize their troops and occupy the ground in preparation for the next legislative elections.
We are still in the initial phase of setting up strategies. . . But it is certain that each party is starting to take the temperature of the different constituencies in order to refine their strategies.
The PTr-MMM-PMSD alliance seems set to bet on a double strategy: to scrape the maximum number of votes against the MSM and the accounting addition of their respective electoral bases.
This two-sided approach allows them to avoid certain questions such as, for example, the economic program that they will put in place to consolidate the economic recovery.
Navin Ramgoolam, who spoke in favor of the reimbursement of more than Rs30 billion to BAI shareholders, remains silent on this promise for the moment.
Will this strategy pay off? We will find out soon enough. On the other side, it also seems certain that the MSM is quietly putting its electoral machinery in place.
We have already seen a change in targets in the last budget with the measurement of Rs20,000 for 18-year-olds. The organization of the youth rally, this Saturday, is also part of this aim to open the shackles of the MSM electoral base to young people.
This is perfectly logical now that the vote of the pensioners seems acquired, this according to the strategists of the MSM, thanks to the aggressive policy of increasing the old-age pension.
Thus, we suspect that other measures for young people will be added to those already proposed in this year’s budget. This is what some recent statements by new members suggest.
We also note that a renewal of political personnel seems to be underway at the MSM, with young recruits announcing their membership while others have already been working in the field for a few weeks.
Pravind Jugnauth also seems to be ready to put in place the profitable strategy of 2019, by not renewing certain ministers and deputies, in particular those whose reputation would have been damaged or tarnished.
From this point of view, it is interesting to note that the cases against the ministers Samynaden, Gobin and the PPS Daliah are finally heard before the Supreme Court.
Will political sanctions fall against them on the eve of the next legislative elections? This may well be the case if a guilty verdict is pronounced against these members of his party.
Pravind Jugnauth will undoubtedly want to demonstrate that he acts according to a highly procedural approach. . . And he could very well use as an argument the fact that he acted following the legal verdicts against these ministers and deputies.
It is also not insignificant that the government comes forward with a bill against financial crimes. The creation of an agency dedicated to the fight against financial crimes even seems to be on the carpet.
Other bills could follow, including the return of the project on the financing of political parties and elections. By doing this, the MSM will equip itself with other arguments before the election campaign, especially since the opposition will find it very difficult to openly oppose these bills.
The coming year will also be decisive for the many infrastructure projects currently under construction. As in 2019, Pravind Jugnauth will undoubtedly present himself as a great builder with repeated inaugurations, in particular that of the spectacular SoreĢze-Chebel bridge, scheduled for June 2024.
This accumulation of measures, new faces and symbols of development will be the three springs on which the MSM will play for the next legislative elections.
For this, the Prime Minister still has a season of religious festivals where his “task forces” will be omnipresent so that pilgrimages and major religious festivals take place in the best possible conditions.
It will also have a budget that should give pride of place to the deployment of a strategy to increase purchasing power and also additional measures for young people. Scandals and perceived slippage of institutions
Will this be enough to make people forget the scandals and the perception of slippage of institutions and security? Again, only time will tell and it is clear that the opposition will bet exactly on this.
But one thing should not be underestimated either. In the absence of a political project producing ideological support, extra-parliamentary parties and abstention will be keys that could well upset a lot of things in a certain number of constituencies.
Moreover, listening to Roshi Bhadain on the radio last Monday, it seems clear that his strategy will be to scratch in the pool of the opposition. Should we see a “deal” already made with the MSM? Not necessarily.
Bhadain knows full well that politics is about positioning. His ambitions mean that he has, in reality, no other choice than to position himself head-on against Navin Ramgoolam and Pravind Jugnauth.
At the same time, one can guess that Bhadain would also want to retain the possibility of a last-minute strategic rapprochement with one or the other.
Its association with the collapse of the BAI means that the PTr will be radically opposed to a rapprochement with the Reform Party in the straightjacket of the opposition alliance, which explains its repeated attacks against this new alliance.
Pravind and Roshi: strategic allies? No ! But the very political survival of Roshi Bhadain may well be forced to take shape in a position radically opposed to the PTr, and therefore to the PTr-MMM-PMSD alliance, something that must make the Sun Trust building smile at the moment.
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