Africa-Press – Mauritius. The Entente de l’Espoir and the Labor Party have announced their decision to face the municipal elections together if the government decides to hold these elections. Given the current circumstances, it is not expected to do so. Do you think so too?
Jocelyn Chan Low: Obviously a bitter defeat in the municipal elections could spell the end of the regime in place if it is followed by a dynamic in favor of an alliance in the making between the Labor Party and the parties of the Entente of Hope , which would also reach rural areas.
Similarly, a victory for the traditional parties in the municipal elections would marginalize the various extra-parliamentary parties already weakened by the Bruneau Laurette affair and would make an alliance of these parties more credible – and easier to conclude – for the general elections.
In fact, the municipal elections would act as a “trial run” or a first try for this alliance. It should be added to this that, since it is the current regime that controls all the municipalities, the opposition appears as a “challenger”, and that any seat won would be perceived as a victory for the opposition.
To this must be added the fact that the last elections clearly demonstrated that this same opposition has solid bases in the urban regions. So for Pravind Jugnauth and his allies, the risks to be taken are enormous.
But, on the other hand, these elections are “long overdue”, and with the end of health restrictions, how can we find a justification to postpone these elections? In addition, any dismissal would be an admission of weakness on the part of the regime, which would weaken the position of its deputies in urban areas.
Let’s wait and see what the government will do. In any case, a new dismissal of the municipal elections would be a serious breach of democracy by a government already criticized in Mauritius and elsewhere for its so-called authoritarian tendencies.
* We do not see the PTr and the Entente de l’Espoir facing the general elections separately in the wake of a victory in the municipal elections.
But will such a victory in the municipal elections automatically produce the same result in the general election for this same alliance, in your opinion?
Everything will depend on a large number of factors, including the personality of the one who will be presented as an alternative prime minister – will there be an Israeli-style power sharing between two personalities from the PTr? The composition of the “front bench” will also be important.
In this regard, one of the major causes of the defeat of the MMM-MSM alliance in 2005 had been a poor calculation at this level compared to that of the social alliance presenting Rashid Beebeejaun as number 2 in the government.
. Much will also depend on the electoral campaign that will be conducted. Today, with the expansion of public space, the emergence of social networks – Facebook, Tik Tok, etc.
– and major sociological transformations, an electoral campaign cannot be conducted successfully without the help of political communication professionals and not by amateurs, be they veterans or commercial marketing agents.
* More important, however, is the question of the leadership of this alliance and possibly of the government – this is what will determine whether this alliance will win the support of a large majority of voters to constitute a winning majority, not is this not?
For some time now, opinion polls have been unanimous on one point: the population is undecided about its political allegiance and shows great distrust of the staff of traditional political parties.
The hard cores of these parties have long since melted like snow. But beware! This does little to benefit the extra-parliamentary parties despite their noisy agitation.
Given that the general elections in Mauritius have been somewhat “presidentialized”, obviously the identity of who will stand as the alternative prime minister is crucial. Of course, he will not be able to rally all the votes of the opposition since the benches of this opposition are very crowded.
But if he projects himself as a strong, competent personality, capable of reforming the shortcomings of the system, and of leading the country to safety in an unstable world where a major international economic crisis is behind the door, and if he is surrounded of a dynamic, rejuvenated team with veterans as mentors, it’s playable.
It is obvious that this personality can only come from the ranks of the PTr, which would undoubtedly be the locomotive of this alliance. * On the other hand, if you are told that a defeat in the municipal elections for the MSM will not automatically produce the same result in the general elections, what would you say?
A bitter defeat in the municipal elections would weaken the foundations of government in urban areas and we know that any setback at this level could be fatal in the pursuit of a parliamentary majority.
What would be the repercussions in rural areas or in what is described as the Hindu belt? Hard to say. Some will say that the MMM had indeed won the municipal elections of 1985 but had then lost the general elections of 1987.
But this time, it would be the MMM allied with the PMSD and especially with the PTr. And we know that in Mauritius, a small country, a slip of about 5% of the electorate can lead to a victory of 60% and that any victory has its own dynamic.
It should be added, moreover, that a detailed analysis of the results of the last general elections shows that, unlike the MMM, the PTr has hardly collapsed in the rural constituencies. On the contrary, the PTr has solid foundations in these regions, even electing a few deputies.
Following the principle of communicating vessels between the electorate of the PTr and the MSM who share the same sociological profile, the possibility of a “labour revival” or a labor revival, on the eve of these elections, is within the realm of the possible.
But everything will depend on the choices of the party in favor of a credible alliance, through the choice of its candidates and through a program of concrete measures, proposed to the electorate.
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