Africa-Press – Mauritius. The depreciation of the rupee and the growing impoverishment of certain sections of the population, the “state capture”… there are enough elements among others for the opposition to effectively counter the current government, but according to several observers , it still does not seem that she is able to demonstrate the validity of her views and to present herself as a valid alternation.
You are aware of that, right? Cader Sayed-Hossen: Regarding the economic situation, the reality of things is much more serious than it might seem at first sight.
While in 2014 (when the Labor Party was in power), the US Dollar was worth Rs 30.66, today it is worth Rs 43.50: the rupee has depreciated by 43% in 8 years of Jugnauth regime, thus leading to an increase unbearable cost of living in Mauritius.
Impoverishment actually affects very large sections of the population. Take this indicator of national wealth which is the Gross National Product (GNP) per capita.
Official statistics show us GNP per capita in rupees – while we import almost all of our consumption in US Dollars. Expressed in US Dollars, the GNP per capita fell from USD 10.154 in 2014 to USD 8.825 in 2021, i.
e. a drop, and therefore an average impoverishment, of 13%. It is certainly not fair to say that the opposition is unable to demonstrate the validity of its views. The constitution and the political convention provide for the opposition to express itself in the National Assembly as well as on public platforms.
However, we all know the shameful situation that prevails in the National Assembly with a Speaker who behaves like a vociferous member of the government majority and who expels opposition deputies from the Chamber, often without valid reason.
The functioning of the parliamentary opposition and the democratic functioning of the National Assembly is thus blocked. Result: the opposition barely manages to express itself.
There are still public platforms. But whatever the seriousness of the economic and social situation, the population is not in the mood for large popular gatherings.
Not only does the health situation not allow it, but it is already hard enough for her to earn a living. This will come close to the election, as it always has.
In addition, Navin Ramgoolam regularly holds press conferences and the Labor Party is again, after the successive confinements that we have known, active at the level of the population, in the various constituencies.
In addition, the absence of large public gatherings does not mean that the population is not aware of the catastrophic economic situation of the country.
The results of the survey carried out recently by Straconsult/AfroBarometer clearly show this: 66% of Mauritians find in 2022 that the country is going in the wrong direction, compared to 50% in 2017 and 54% in 2020; 63% of Mauritians think the economic situation is either bad or very bad, compared to 37% in 2017.
The perception among the population that the country is heading towards a disaster is very clear. * And what about the MTC’s conflict with the GRA over the organization of horse races?
The conflict between the MTC and the GRA is a perfect illustration of a culture of state capture and invasion of all spheres of the country’s economic and social life, taken to the extreme.
PravindJugnauth has placed at the head of the main institutions of the country people whose primary allegiance is neither to the country nor to the institution for which they are responsible, but to PravindJugnauth and to what is commonly called the kwizinn.
The MTC is not an institution like the Bank of Mauritius, the Financial Services Commission, etc. , but the MTC manages horse racing, in which circles very considerable sums of money circulate.
The government has created in fourth gear a company, the Côte d’Or International Race Course and Entertainment Ltd, first domiciled at the Ministry of Finance and now at the Prime Minister’s Office, with the addition of the replacement of several directors of the company by men all operating at the PMO.
And it is this company, directly under the control of PravindJugnauth, which will decide on the organization of the races at the Champ de Mars. Is it the venerable 210-year-old MTC, or the People’s Turf, another hastily created company run by a man close to power? Here, wouldn’t everything be opportunism, opacity, stranglehold on sources of income?
After having nearly ruined the Banque de Maurice, the State Trading Corporation, the Central Electricity Board, the Financial Services Commission and the Mauritius Ports Authority, by scraping the bottom of their coffers, the government is now attacking racing and very probably the control of betting on races: wouldn’t we clearly be dealing with predators with endless appetites?
* However, the opposition must also ensure that it prepares for the alternation, by being ready to assume power in the event that the government fails. But here too, things are a little down, it seems, due to disagreement over the leadership of an enlarged opposition alliance.
So much the better, would you say, in view of the conclusions of the recent Le Mauricien-Straconsult survey, especially in relation to the popularity rating of the Entente de l’Espoir?
Independently of the conclusions of the poll in question and the popularity rating of each other, there has never, I mean never, been a question for us in the Labor Party of a leadership other than that of Navin Ramgoolam in the event of a an expanded opposition alliance.
Admittedly, there were somewhat surreal impulses on the part of some to want to claim to assume leadership, but which were quickly classified as irrelevant and were also quickly forgotten.
Right by the way. To think of ending the dark years that PravindJugnauth and his kwizin make us live through only with the leadership of Navin Ramgoolam is an illusion.
But the essentials have already been acquired in the ranks of the opposition, not only at the level of the traditional political parties, but also at the level of the extra-parliamentary political forces and movements: the urgent national historic need to put an end to the regime on most incompetent, most unpatriotic…that the country has ever known.
And the Labor Party is ready to present itself to the electorate to offer not only a credible alternation because it has proven itself in very difficult international economic situations, but above all because the Labor Party remains the only possible alternation.
* Rama Valayden said during an interview granted to the express last February that “if PravindJugnauth is re-elected, it will be the fault of Bérenger and Ramgoolam”.
He’s not entirely wrong though. What do you think? Rama Valayden has a taste for lapidary formulas. So let’s move on. Pravind Jugnauth was never elected Prime Minister.
His father, Sir Anerood Jugnauth handed him the Prime Minister’s chair as if it were a family heirloom and the question whether he became Prime Minister again in 2019 following a rigged election still remains unanswered today.
With its sad and lamentable record of mismanagement, squandering of public funds, so many allegations of corruption and nepotism beyond even the most fertile imagination, of catastrophic management of the economy resulting in an unprecedented impoverishment of the population, its total lack of compassion for the suffering of an entire people, I do not see how this regime could survive.
As I have already told you, the common objective of all the opposition is to put an end to this regime so that the country can breathe and we are confident that the majority of the population shares this objective.
Let’s not forget that despite all the anomalies that surrounded the 2019 election results, ultimately the numbers show that over 65% of the population voted against the MSM and its allies, and, as As shown by the conclusions of the Straconsult/AfroBarometer survey, 66% of the population is dissatisfied or deeply dissatisfied with the economic situation of the country, and 63% of the population think that the situation will get worse in the next 12 months – which demonstrates a considerable lack of confidence in this regime and in this Prime Minister.
Moreover, you can be sure that for the next election, we will make sure that no Mickey Mouse business takes place – no manipulation whatsoever in the elections and in the vote count.
* The PTr of which you are a part will nevertheless, even if the question of leadership is no longer debated, as you say, find the right formula – “a win-win formula”, as Paul Bérenger would say, even if there is none is not part – to swing the electorate in constituencies No. 5 to 14.
As others have said, time is running out, isn’t it? First, let’s address the question of the leadership of the Labor Party. This has never been debated within the party, even if the press has made it its favorite for a long time.
Despite a small challenge of short duration, at no time was the leadership of Navin Ramgoolam questioned. Next, consider the electorate in constituencies 5 through 14 – the so-called rural constituencies. History has shown that to win an election, you must have a majority in these 10 rural ridings.
This the Labor Party has already done, and there is no reason why, given the negative track record of the MSM government, the Labor Party’s forthcoming government program and its historic roots in rural areas, we should not did not manage, in alliance or not, to make, as you say, rock these constituencies.
Of course, we will certainly have to find the right formula when the time comes. But it is perhaps far too premature to discuss it now. In fact, this question of finding the right formula is nothing new.
Given the Mauritian electoral configuration and taking into account the quite profound changes in attitudes, perceptions, expectations and electoral behaviors (normal changes that go hand in hand with the social changes that we have experienced over the last 10-15 years), it is always imperative to define the right formula – as is the case for many large parties in many countries.
To deny that would be hypocrisy. Time is running out, have others said? Yes and no. It has also been said that in politics, a week can be an eternity.
* A “win-win formula” with or without Bérenger, Bodha, Bhadain?
The main thing is of course to define this win-win formula to win the elections, because it is essential to win the next elections to end this regime. But, as I have already told you, it is premature to discuss this now. With or without X, Y or Z or even A, B or C: that is precisely the formula.
Obviously the notion of “with” necessarily implies that X, Y or Z, or even A, B or C can contribute to an electoral victory by a sufficient contribution of votes at the national level.
On the other hand, what is certain is that the leader of any formula cannot be other than Navin Ramgoolam – not only because he is the leader of the Labor Party, but because he is the only one to to be able to oppose PravindJugnauth victoriously.
* Will the worsening economic situation – even if you probably do not want it – be your battle horse in 2024?
Of course, in the Labor Party we are patriots and we have never wanted either a shaky economy or a worsening of the economic situation to make it our electoral battle horse.
But the perception of the people is that the two main problems of the country (there are many others) are the mismanagement of the national economy and unemployment (10%), especially youth unemployment (25%) – also directly linked to the mismanagement of the national economy.
And, of course, we cannot remain silent on this very alarming situation which is plunging a large part of the population into deep misery. But it’s not just that.
There is the unspeakable arrogance of a power without heart and without compassion, totally insensitive to the suffering of hundreds of thousands of our compatriots who do not have enough to eat, to the despair of the children who sleep in the street (yes, there in Mauritius in 2022 there are children sleeping on the streets), and voluntarily deaf to all calls.
I can’t help but think of this herd of Mauritian ministers (more than half of the Council of Ministers…) going to the World Exo in Dubai supposedly to go hunting for investors.
The Minister for Gender Equality traveling to meet investors! Tens of millions spent so that more than a dozen ministers of PravindJugnauth go to Dubai for walks and shopping while tens of thousands of our compatriots do not have enough to eat… Such is the popular perception at the moment! But, since we are talking about a workhorse, there is above all the social change that we will propose to the Nation.
This country has a great need to be rebalanced from all points of view: the institutions rotten by the outrageous control of the current government and this famous kwizinn must be cleaned or sanitized, the economy must be put back on track, our industry must work again, our agriculture must be revived, public ethics must be restored after years of mismanagement, among others.
* The government will no doubt bank on a marked improvement in the economic situation before 2024, which should also be one of its priority objectives in the months to come. Very objectively, do you think this is achievable? Very objectively? No.
How can the same incompetents who have worked since 2015 to dismantle all the prosperity that the Labor Party has built between 2005 and 2014 be able to straighten the bar in two years and achieve good economic health in 2024?
As I have already told you, the economic situation is much more serious than it might seem at first glance, and moreover, it is an exponential accumulation of mismanagement and the consequences of this mismanagement over eight years that lead to the current situation .
Let’s see some figures in comparison with the same elements in 2014, when the Labor Party left power. The rupee depreciated by 43% against the US Dollar compared to 2014 (Rs 30.66 in 2014 against Rs 43.50 in 2022).
GNP per capita in real terms fell by 13% between 2014 and 2021, from USD 10,154 in 2014 to USD 8,825 in 2021 – which brings us back to the same level of wealth today as in 2009.
The trade balance deficit increased by 73% between 2014 (Rs 77 billion) and 2021 (Rs 133 billion). Our balance of payments deficit increased by 205% between 2014 (Rs 21 billion) and 2021 (Rs 64 billion).
Our physical exports, mainly of industrial goods, fell by 13% between 2014 (Rs 95 billion) and 2021 (Rs 82 billion). Foreign Direct Investment, or foreign direct investment, FDI, fell by 54% between 2014 (Rs 18.5 billion) and 2021 (Rs 8.5 billion). Public debt has increased from Rs 238 billion in 2014 (61% of GDP) to Rs 413 billion in 2021 (89% of GDP).
If we take into account off-budget borrowing, through special-purpose vehicles, the public debt exceeded 105% of GDP, while it is widely accepted that a public debt of 80% of GDP is the maximum that we can support without hampering our economic and social development.
The cumulative mismanagement and the clogging of the consequences of this mismanagement through massive borrowing are the root and structural causes of the state of economic emergency in which we find ourselves. None, I mean none, of the indicators we have seen can be turned around by 2024.
But I suspect that, true to form, Pravind Jugnauth will introduce populist measures to further try to fool and lull the electorate, measures which he will fund with massive new borrowing, which will only make our situation even worse.
economic. * In view of the uncertainty as to the duration of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the government will be faced with a double challenge: to seek solutions to lessen its economic and social consequences.
After the financial cost of the pandemic, which has weakened public finances, do you see the government having the means to face this new crisis? There is something paradoxical in the perception of this war.
If we believe the Western media, it is a conflict that has or will have an impact on the whole world. However, that is not the case. The effects of this crisis particularly affect neighboring countries and Europe, which are heavily dependent on Russian natural gas and Ukrainian sunflower oil and wheat.
This crisis is probably, together with speculation which is always an important factor in determining the prices of commodities or commodities, one of the reasons behind the recent increase in the price of the gas (LNG, liquefiedpetroleumgas) that we buy.
It is therefore wrong to say that the war between Russia and Ukraine constitutes a major challenge for us, even if the government has tried several times, and will continue to do so, to put its economic difficulties, especially the repetitive increase in the cost of life on the back of war in Ukraine.
On the other hand, the pandemic has had, as much for households and businesses as for the State, a certain financial cost. I do not think there is a “new crisis” because the war between Russia and Ukraine, while having a relative impact on some of our trading partners, does not affect us directly.
But there is a crisis, and this crisis is the collapse of a good part of our economic structure. The industrial sector is in decline (you can see it in the export figures) because the Ministry of Industry is inactive, our agriculture is dying because we have no Minister of Agriculture – only an acting Attorney General as part-time Minister of Agriculture.
In these two very important sectors, there is no longer any State-Economic Operators dialogue, the State-Private Sector synergy no longer exists as was the case under the Labor Party.
Tourism is slowly recovering from the pandemic. The Global Business Sector, GBS, is the only sector that is healthy and I hope with all my heart that it will continue.
But we must also note that the balance of payments has become very or too heavily dependent on the GBS. So, does the government have the means to face this crisis? No. So he will resort to debt again. I feel like saying, like Macbeth, “thisgovernmentis in bloodsteepedso far…”
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