Africa-Press – Mozambique. The Mozambican government estimates that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 10.14% short of its potential in 2024 as a result of the post-election crisis and the impact of cyclones, according to an official forecast consulted by Lusa today.
According to information contained in the 2026-28 Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario (CFMP), recently approved by the government, this shortfall was recently surpassed only in 2022, when GDP fell 12.50% below potential. However, the government admits that in 2025, the economy will still fall 2.78% short of its potential.
“This fact shows that the economy is operating significantly below its productive capacity, a phenomenon largely attributed to the post-election crisis and the impact of Cyclone Chido in December, 2024,” the document reads.
It adds that “although the economy may experience a recovery in real growth by 2025”, it is still expected that “the GDP gap will remain in negative territory” until next year: “That is, below its productive capacity, due to the persistence of certain cumulative effects resulting from the successive shocks recently observed.”
The government estimates that this scenario should only be reversed in 2026, according to the document, “supported by the implementation of measures aimed at economic recovery”.
The document containing structural forecasts for the Mozambican economy begins by warning that “certain exogenous fiscal risks could exert adverse pressure on the current macro-fiscal framework [2026 to 2028], with particular emphasis on potential natural disasters, security threats in the northern region of the country, and the persistence of post-election protests”.
“Regarding natural disasters, Mozambique’s geographic location makes the country particularly vulnerable to the cyclical occurrence of extreme weather events, which generate adverse impacts on both the population and less resilient infrastructure, thus compromising socioeconomic and fiscal stability,” it adds.
According to the government, the “most recent projections indicate the persistence of the neutral phase” of the El Niño phenomenon until the beginning of the next rainy season in October, a period after which “there are signs of a possible transition to typical La Niña conditions,” which “tend to favour increased rainfall in the central and southern regions of the country”.
Finance Minister Carla Loveira stated on June 16 that Mozambique’s economic and financial outlook remains “challenging”, acknowledging that the impact of post-election social tensions will still be felt in the first quarter of the year.
She recalled that, “in recent years”, the country’s macroeconomic management has faced “challenges arising from external and internal shocks that profoundly affect” the economy, such as terrorism in Cabo Delgado, extreme weather events, and “violent demonstrations” following the October 9 general elections.
These culminated in “the destruction of public and private infrastructure, which led to a 3.6 percentage point economic slowdown in 2024, reaching 1.9% compared to the 5.5% projected in the PESOE [Economic and Social Plan and State Budget] for that year”, the finance minister said.
“This situation was reinforced in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP showing a negative variation of 3.9% compared to the same period in 2024, influenced by negative variations in the secondary sector of 16.2%, followed by the tertiary sector with a negative variation of 8%,” Minister Loveira added at the time.
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